NOD and NOT to Sales Ratios?

[patb]

if you are a renter, a layoff won’t hit Default/foreclosure stats.

Now if you are a dual income family and you need both incomes
to support your F^&*ed mortgage a layoff will kill you.

if we have high unemployment i expect home ownership to fall by 20% or more.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, not every layoff will result in a “must sell.” However for the 65% of the population that owns, the margin of error has been taken away. Not for everyone, I realize there are pople who own outright or bought 20 years ago, but for a large enough chunk to rock the boat. Those same people who own outright or have 75% equity also didn’t drive the prices up during the boom, it only takes a portion of the market to move it wildly. It’s like freeway traffic, add 10% more cars and it’s gridlock, take 10% away and it feels like nascar.

jp-I know other threads have been talking about how premium areas will be fine and there are plenty of rich people out there, blah, blah, blah, that tired argument has been made for years, it just manifests itself in different ways. There are a couple of things you need to realize about rich people, for the most part they already have a house (with the exception of us reverse flippers and we are a very vocal minority). The other thing about rich people is that they are often fairly smart with their money, most didn’t get rich from the lottery and they try to find the bottom of markets as much or more than those who have to. Real rich people like their money and are careful with it, psuedo rich people aren’t but then again all those people are exactly the ones hurt by the R/E bust. For the real rich folk, their cash is doing fine for them in commodities right now, very few are itching to put their money into arguably the worst investment available right now and unlike you and I, they probably aren’t sweating it out in a rental. Or you can buy into the rehtoric and believe that there are literally thousands of cash buyers just waiting for their turn to buy and until now or until they get thier stimulus check (oh, yeah, anybody who makes the needed income to buy the median house in S.D. earns too much to get a stimulus check). Okay, maybe they’ve been too busy counting their money and now they are ready. Show me the lines of people camping out for the phase releases in the better areas before I’ll believe all is well.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, not every layoff will result in a “must sell.” However for the 65% of the population that owns, the margin of error has been taken away. Not for everyone, I realize there are pople who own outright or bought 20 years ago, but for a large enough chunk to rock the boat. Those same people who own outright or have 75% equity also didn’t drive the prices up during the boom, it only takes a portion of the market to move it wildly. It’s like freeway traffic, add 10% more cars and it’s gridlock, take 10% away and it feels like nascar.

jp-I know other threads have been talking about how premium areas will be fine and there are plenty of rich people out there, blah, blah, blah, that tired argument has been made for years, it just manifests itself in different ways. There are a couple of things you need to realize about rich people, for the most part they already have a house (with the exception of us reverse flippers and we are a very vocal minority). The other thing about rich people is that they are often fairly smart with their money, most didn’t get rich from the lottery and they try to find the bottom of markets as much or more than those who have to. Real rich people like their money and are careful with it, psuedo rich people aren’t but then again all those people are exactly the ones hurt by the R/E bust. For the real rich folk, their cash is doing fine for them in commodities right now, very few are itching to put their money into arguably the worst investment available right now and unlike you and I, they probably aren’t sweating it out in a rental. Or you can buy into the rehtoric and believe that there are literally thousands of cash buyers just waiting for their turn to buy and until now or until they get thier stimulus check (oh, yeah, anybody who makes the needed income to buy the median house in S.D. earns too much to get a stimulus check). Okay, maybe they’ve been too busy counting their money and now they are ready. Show me the lines of people camping out for the phase releases in the better areas before I’ll believe all is well.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, not every layoff will result in a “must sell.” However for the 65% of the population that owns, the margin of error has been taken away. Not for everyone, I realize there are pople who own outright or bought 20 years ago, but for a large enough chunk to rock the boat. Those same people who own outright or have 75% equity also didn’t drive the prices up during the boom, it only takes a portion of the market to move it wildly. It’s like freeway traffic, add 10% more cars and it’s gridlock, take 10% away and it feels like nascar.

jp-I know other threads have been talking about how premium areas will be fine and there are plenty of rich people out there, blah, blah, blah, that tired argument has been made for years, it just manifests itself in different ways. There are a couple of things you need to realize about rich people, for the most part they already have a house (with the exception of us reverse flippers and we are a very vocal minority). The other thing about rich people is that they are often fairly smart with their money, most didn’t get rich from the lottery and they try to find the bottom of markets as much or more than those who have to. Real rich people like their money and are careful with it, psuedo rich people aren’t but then again all those people are exactly the ones hurt by the R/E bust. For the real rich folk, their cash is doing fine for them in commodities right now, very few are itching to put their money into arguably the worst investment available right now and unlike you and I, they probably aren’t sweating it out in a rental. Or you can buy into the rehtoric and believe that there are literally thousands of cash buyers just waiting for their turn to buy and until now or until they get thier stimulus check (oh, yeah, anybody who makes the needed income to buy the median house in S.D. earns too much to get a stimulus check). Okay, maybe they’ve been too busy counting their money and now they are ready. Show me the lines of people camping out for the phase releases in the better areas before I’ll believe all is well.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, not every layoff will result in a “must sell.” However for the 65% of the population that owns, the margin of error has been taken away. Not for everyone, I realize there are pople who own outright or bought 20 years ago, but for a large enough chunk to rock the boat. Those same people who own outright or have 75% equity also didn’t drive the prices up during the boom, it only takes a portion of the market to move it wildly. It’s like freeway traffic, add 10% more cars and it’s gridlock, take 10% away and it feels like nascar.

jp-I know other threads have been talking about how premium areas will be fine and there are plenty of rich people out there, blah, blah, blah, that tired argument has been made for years, it just manifests itself in different ways. There are a couple of things you need to realize about rich people, for the most part they already have a house (with the exception of us reverse flippers and we are a very vocal minority). The other thing about rich people is that they are often fairly smart with their money, most didn’t get rich from the lottery and they try to find the bottom of markets as much or more than those who have to. Real rich people like their money and are careful with it, psuedo rich people aren’t but then again all those people are exactly the ones hurt by the R/E bust. For the real rich folk, their cash is doing fine for them in commodities right now, very few are itching to put their money into arguably the worst investment available right now and unlike you and I, they probably aren’t sweating it out in a rental. Or you can buy into the rehtoric and believe that there are literally thousands of cash buyers just waiting for their turn to buy and until now or until they get thier stimulus check (oh, yeah, anybody who makes the needed income to buy the median house in S.D. earns too much to get a stimulus check). Okay, maybe they’ve been too busy counting their money and now they are ready. Show me the lines of people camping out for the phase releases in the better areas before I’ll believe all is well.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, not every layoff will result in a “must sell.” However for the 65% of the population that owns, the margin of error has been taken away. Not for everyone, I realize there are pople who own outright or bought 20 years ago, but for a large enough chunk to rock the boat. Those same people who own outright or have 75% equity also didn’t drive the prices up during the boom, it only takes a portion of the market to move it wildly. It’s like freeway traffic, add 10% more cars and it’s gridlock, take 10% away and it feels like nascar.

jp-I know other threads have been talking about how premium areas will be fine and there are plenty of rich people out there, blah, blah, blah, that tired argument has been made for years, it just manifests itself in different ways. There are a couple of things you need to realize about rich people, for the most part they already have a house (with the exception of us reverse flippers and we are a very vocal minority). The other thing about rich people is that they are often fairly smart with their money, most didn’t get rich from the lottery and they try to find the bottom of markets as much or more than those who have to. Real rich people like their money and are careful with it, psuedo rich people aren’t but then again all those people are exactly the ones hurt by the R/E bust. For the real rich folk, their cash is doing fine for them in commodities right now, very few are itching to put their money into arguably the worst investment available right now and unlike you and I, they probably aren’t sweating it out in a rental. Or you can buy into the rehtoric and believe that there are literally thousands of cash buyers just waiting for their turn to buy and until now or until they get thier stimulus check (oh, yeah, anybody who makes the needed income to buy the median house in S.D. earns too much to get a stimulus check). Okay, maybe they’ve been too busy counting their money and now they are ready. Show me the lines of people camping out for the phase releases in the better areas before I’ll believe all is well.

[jpinpb]

Just read on another thread that 40% appreciation in 8 years along the coast is normal. I’ve seen price of homes in PB double from 2000 to peak, now slightly down. MPO, when those new townhomes sell for 650k+, seems bubbly to me. If condos sell for 650k, then of course the houses MUST go up accordingly, and they have. So now I’ve seen prices of condos come down slightly. They’re not budging much, nothing like inland. I say there’s room to go down. The other thread said Case-Schiller chart said coast did not go up much and won’t come down much. So double price in 8 years is not much? Just trying to understand. There’s been flipping activity in PB, yet places still sell

[jpinpb]

Just read on another thread that 40% appreciation in 8 years along the coast is normal. I’ve seen price of homes in PB double from 2000 to peak, now slightly down. MPO, when those new townhomes sell for 650k+, seems bubbly to me. If condos sell for 650k, then of course the houses MUST go up accordingly, and they have. So now I’ve seen prices of condos come down slightly. They’re not budging much, nothing like inland. I say there’s room to go down. The other thread said Case-Schiller chart said coast did not go up much and won’t come down much. So double price in 8 years is not much? Just trying to understand. There’s been flipping activity in PB, yet places still sell

[jpinpb]

Just read on another thread that 40% appreciation in 8 years along the coast is normal. I’ve seen price of homes in PB double from 2000 to peak, now slightly down. MPO, when those new townhomes sell for 650k+, seems bubbly to me. If condos sell for 650k, then of course the houses MUST go up accordingly, and they have. So now I’ve seen prices of condos come down slightly. They’re not budging much, nothing like inland. I say there’s room to go down. The other thread said Case-Schiller chart said coast did not go up much and won’t come down much. So double price in 8 years is not much? Just trying to understand. There’s been flipping activity in PB, yet places still sell

[jpinpb]

Just read on another thread that 40% appreciation in 8 years along the coast is normal. I’ve seen price of homes in PB double from 2000 to peak, now slightly down. MPO, when those new townhomes sell for 650k+, seems bubbly to me. If condos sell for 650k, then of course the houses MUST go up accordingly, and they have. So now I’ve seen prices of condos come down slightly. They’re not budging much, nothing like inland. I say there’s room to go down. The other thread said Case-Schiller chart said coast did not go up much and won’t come down much. So double price in 8 years is not much? Just trying to understand. There’s been flipping activity in PB, yet places still sell

[jpinpb]

Just read on another thread that 40% appreciation in 8 years along the coast is normal. I’ve seen price of homes in PB double from 2000 to peak, now slightly down. MPO, when those new townhomes sell for 650k+, seems bubbly to me. If condos sell for 650k, then of course the houses MUST go up accordingly, and they have. So now I’ve seen prices of condos come down slightly. They’re not budging much, nothing like inland. I say there’s room to go down. The other thread said Case-Schiller chart said coast did not go up much and won’t come down much. So double price in 8 years is not much? Just trying to understand. There’s been flipping activity in PB, yet places still sell

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