next few months matter?

[zk]

Scaredy, I’m convinced your fears are justified, but that could be because I’m sort of in a pickle where I’m going to probably be buying in a few months despite having the same fears you do.

In fact, I was going to start a thread with my dilemma, but since it’s almost the same as yours, I’ll put it here:

I’ve been waiting for a long time for this particular lot in a tract of new homes. It’ll probably be released in July. My prediction is that I’ll buy in July, after mortgage rates have started to go up but before prices have dropped as a result. After the 8k thing expires but before prices have dropped as a result. Right before the infamous shadow inventory starts to really hit the market. Right before Carmel Valley, which has floated along with very little damage, starts to finally feel the pain.

On the one hand, I can afford the house easily (I could pay cash, but probably won’t.) And I love the location and the house. And it’ll be nice to be settled in. On the other hand, I’ve waited all this time to buy, and to buy after 5 years and then have things finally go down significantly (in Carmel Valley) would really, really suck.

So, if I didn’t have this particular house I really wanted, I’d probably wait. (Or, if Pardee jacks up the price, I’ll wait anyway). Obviously prices will increase at some point, but virtually nobody who isn’t a Realtor is predicting that there’ll be any significant appreciation any time soon. So there’s a possible upside to waiting and, other than not settling in a house you want, not much downside to waiting.

Of course, if you’re in one of the areas where prices are 30, 40, 50 percent off the peak, that’s a different story. Probably not as much upside to waiting.

[scaredyclassic]

well, this place is definitely at least 50% off the peak, and it is objectviely fine, so i don’t see that i can be making a horrible horrible decision. i keep revising my offer number upward in my head, but I’m going to submit something about 20k over list by the end of the day.

[scaredyclassic]

well, this place is definitely at least 50% off the peak, and it is objectviely fine, so i don’t see that i can be making a horrible horrible decision. i keep revising my offer number upward in my head, but I’m going to submit something about 20k over list by the end of the day.

[scaredyclassic]

well, this place is definitely at least 50% off the peak, and it is objectviely fine, so i don’t see that i can be making a horrible horrible decision. i keep revising my offer number upward in my head, but I’m going to submit something about 20k over list by the end of the day.

[scaredyclassic]

well, this place is definitely at least 50% off the peak, and it is objectviely fine, so i don’t see that i can be making a horrible horrible decision. i keep revising my offer number upward in my head, but I’m going to submit something about 20k over list by the end of the day.

[scaredyclassic]

well, this place is definitely at least 50% off the peak, and it is objectviely fine, so i don’t see that i can be making a horrible horrible decision. i keep revising my offer number upward in my head, but I’m going to submit something about 20k over list by the end of the day.

[sdrealtor]

zk, Just a fair warning on the lot you have your eyes on. If it is one of the premier lots in a new tract your chances of getting it are pretty low even if you are number 1 on the priority list right now. I was in the same position 5 years ago. What typically happens to those lots is you will show up at the release and someone in the “friends and family” of the builder category who has the right to jump to the front of the line will suddenly appear and take it. It sucks, but that is how those things usually go.

[sdrealtor]

zk, Just a fair warning on the lot you have your eyes on. If it is one of the premier lots in a new tract your chances of getting it are pretty low even if you are number 1 on the priority list right now. I was in the same position 5 years ago. What typically happens to those lots is you will show up at the release and someone in the “friends and family” of the builder category who has the right to jump to the front of the line will suddenly appear and take it. It sucks, but that is how those things usually go.

[sdrealtor]

zk, Just a fair warning on the lot you have your eyes on. If it is one of the premier lots in a new tract your chances of getting it are pretty low even if you are number 1 on the priority list right now. I was in the same position 5 years ago. What typically happens to those lots is you will show up at the release and someone in the “friends and family” of the builder category who has the right to jump to the front of the line will suddenly appear and take it. It sucks, but that is how those things usually go.

[sdrealtor]

zk, Just a fair warning on the lot you have your eyes on. If it is one of the premier lots in a new tract your chances of getting it are pretty low even if you are number 1 on the priority list right now. I was in the same position 5 years ago. What typically happens to those lots is you will show up at the release and someone in the “friends and family” of the builder category who has the right to jump to the front of the line will suddenly appear and take it. It sucks, but that is how those things usually go.

[sdrealtor]

zk, Just a fair warning on the lot you have your eyes on. If it is one of the premier lots in a new tract your chances of getting it are pretty low even if you are number 1 on the priority list right now. I was in the same position 5 years ago. What typically happens to those lots is you will show up at the release and someone in the “friends and family” of the builder category who has the right to jump to the front of the line will suddenly appear and take it. It sucks, but that is how those things usually go.

[desmond]

Cat,

I think the next few months really do matter, and if I were you I would wait to see how they play out. This blog is now controlled by the PIGS, not the PIGS your thinking of, Port, Ire, Greece,& Spain, but the Rancho CA pigs, the old renter, the Realtor and even the Grand Puba Rick (although his last article was hard for him to write). They have a biased agenda, they bought or are selling, and now want everybody else to buy. I think it is going to crater, not just remain flat, crater. In 6 months you can call me an idiot or buy me a drink.

[desmond]

Cat,

I think the next few months really do matter, and if I were you I would wait to see how they play out. This blog is now controlled by the PIGS, not the PIGS your thinking of, Port, Ire, Greece,& Spain, but the Rancho CA pigs, the old renter, the Realtor and even the Grand Puba Rick (although his last article was hard for him to write). They have a biased agenda, they bought or are selling, and now want everybody else to buy. I think it is going to crater, not just remain flat, crater. In 6 months you can call me an idiot or buy me a drink.

[desmond]

Cat,

I think the next few months really do matter, and if I were you I would wait to see how they play out. This blog is now controlled by the PIGS, not the PIGS your thinking of, Port, Ire, Greece,& Spain, but the Rancho CA pigs, the old renter, the Realtor and even the Grand Puba Rick (although his last article was hard for him to write). They have a biased agenda, they bought or are selling, and now want everybody else to buy. I think it is going to crater, not just remain flat, crater. In 6 months you can call me an idiot or buy me a drink.

[desmond]

Cat,

I think the next few months really do matter, and if I were you I would wait to see how they play out. This blog is now controlled by the PIGS, not the PIGS your thinking of, Port, Ire, Greece,& Spain, but the Rancho CA pigs, the old renter, the Realtor and even the Grand Puba Rick (although his last article was hard for him to write). They have a biased agenda, they bought or are selling, and now want everybody else to buy. I think it is going to crater, not just remain flat, crater. In 6 months you can call me an idiot or buy me a drink.

[Author]

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