Mr.Mortgage predicts two bottoms…

[Bob]

[quote=Arraya]They have failed thus far and we don’t have forever. The end result of this “experiment” in monetary voodoo is destruction of the US’s credit around the world and massive devaluation of currency. Also, it does not necessarily have to inflate to devalue.[/quote]

Two points for Arraya !

Excellent post.

[peterb]

All currencies are very weak. Devaluing seems difficult when virtually everything except gold is contracting. Defaults and unemployment create a death spiral. Despite the govt’s spend and borrow strategy, it is still dwarfed by the unemployment,credit contractions and defaults that continue to mount and grow with every month that passes. We see federal govt being careless with money, but everyone else is having a very hard time getting the stuff lately. And the Feds may have the same difficulty in the not too distant future as well.

[peterb]

All currencies are very weak. Devaluing seems difficult when virtually everything except gold is contracting. Defaults and unemployment create a death spiral. Despite the govt’s spend and borrow strategy, it is still dwarfed by the unemployment,credit contractions and defaults that continue to mount and grow with every month that passes. We see federal govt being careless with money, but everyone else is having a very hard time getting the stuff lately. And the Feds may have the same difficulty in the not too distant future as well.

[peterb]

All currencies are very weak. Devaluing seems difficult when virtually everything except gold is contracting. Defaults and unemployment create a death spiral. Despite the govt’s spend and borrow strategy, it is still dwarfed by the unemployment,credit contractions and defaults that continue to mount and grow with every month that passes. We see federal govt being careless with money, but everyone else is having a very hard time getting the stuff lately. And the Feds may have the same difficulty in the not too distant future as well.

[peterb]

All currencies are very weak. Devaluing seems difficult when virtually everything except gold is contracting. Defaults and unemployment create a death spiral. Despite the govt’s spend and borrow strategy, it is still dwarfed by the unemployment,credit contractions and defaults that continue to mount and grow with every month that passes. We see federal govt being careless with money, but everyone else is having a very hard time getting the stuff lately. And the Feds may have the same difficulty in the not too distant future as well.

[peterb]

All currencies are very weak. Devaluing seems difficult when virtually everything except gold is contracting. Defaults and unemployment create a death spiral. Despite the govt’s spend and borrow strategy, it is still dwarfed by the unemployment,credit contractions and defaults that continue to mount and grow with every month that passes. We see federal govt being careless with money, but everyone else is having a very hard time getting the stuff lately. And the Feds may have the same difficulty in the not too distant future as well.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=Bob][quote=5yearwaiter]Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.[/quote]

Thats a good question, so let me try to explain it as best I can.

Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities are typically used to set long-term mortgage rates. Loans with short initial terms (1-, 3-, and 5- year ARMs are used for shorter-term securities.) So when bond yields drop, typically, conventional mortgage rates fall as well. But, when yields rise, so do mortgage rates. Why? If a lender chooses to sell your mortgage loan to an investor, the lender will likely use Treasury yields as a benchmark for value.

As for Bernanke, when he made the decision to purchase securities, he did so with the goal of reducing bond yields, with the clear intention of lowering mortgage rates. This policy was implemented with the hopes of kickstarting the economy and the real estate market out of its deflationary cycle. But the only way to sustain such low rates will be for the Fed to continue purchasing securities. At some point this summer, Bernanke will have to make an important decision on whether or not to continue this policy. If he continues the policy, that will be a clear indication that the economy hasn’t yet turned the corner…but it will also be a red flag for future inflation.
[/quote]

Bob, don’t you think the current prevaling economy leading a hyper inflation (like in the 1970s Jimmy Carter time a lot minting occured eventually resulted a $ devaluation – such situation generally money value goes down. If we think that way sure there will be a surge in interest rates in the coming era as I guess could be in double digit (some times more than even 14%). There could be sure some housing prices chances to go down – however … with the devaulation again no value to the money situation would keep housing rates at the same level or not much lower…… well I am self talking all these no one can predict but this situation would also be considered.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=Bob][quote=5yearwaiter]Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.[/quote]

Thats a good question, so let me try to explain it as best I can.

Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities are typically used to set long-term mortgage rates. Loans with short initial terms (1-, 3-, and 5- year ARMs are used for shorter-term securities.) So when bond yields drop, typically, conventional mortgage rates fall as well. But, when yields rise, so do mortgage rates. Why? If a lender chooses to sell your mortgage loan to an investor, the lender will likely use Treasury yields as a benchmark for value.

As for Bernanke, when he made the decision to purchase securities, he did so with the goal of reducing bond yields, with the clear intention of lowering mortgage rates. This policy was implemented with the hopes of kickstarting the economy and the real estate market out of its deflationary cycle. But the only way to sustain such low rates will be for the Fed to continue purchasing securities. At some point this summer, Bernanke will have to make an important decision on whether or not to continue this policy. If he continues the policy, that will be a clear indication that the economy hasn’t yet turned the corner…but it will also be a red flag for future inflation.
[/quote]

Bob, don’t you think the current prevaling economy leading a hyper inflation (like in the 1970s Jimmy Carter time a lot minting occured eventually resulted a $ devaluation – such situation generally money value goes down. If we think that way sure there will be a surge in interest rates in the coming era as I guess could be in double digit (some times more than even 14%). There could be sure some housing prices chances to go down – however … with the devaulation again no value to the money situation would keep housing rates at the same level or not much lower…… well I am self talking all these no one can predict but this situation would also be considered.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=Bob][quote=5yearwaiter]Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.[/quote]

Thats a good question, so let me try to explain it as best I can.

Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities are typically used to set long-term mortgage rates. Loans with short initial terms (1-, 3-, and 5- year ARMs are used for shorter-term securities.) So when bond yields drop, typically, conventional mortgage rates fall as well. But, when yields rise, so do mortgage rates. Why? If a lender chooses to sell your mortgage loan to an investor, the lender will likely use Treasury yields as a benchmark for value.

As for Bernanke, when he made the decision to purchase securities, he did so with the goal of reducing bond yields, with the clear intention of lowering mortgage rates. This policy was implemented with the hopes of kickstarting the economy and the real estate market out of its deflationary cycle. But the only way to sustain such low rates will be for the Fed to continue purchasing securities. At some point this summer, Bernanke will have to make an important decision on whether or not to continue this policy. If he continues the policy, that will be a clear indication that the economy hasn’t yet turned the corner…but it will also be a red flag for future inflation.
[/quote]

Bob, don’t you think the current prevaling economy leading a hyper inflation (like in the 1970s Jimmy Carter time a lot minting occured eventually resulted a $ devaluation – such situation generally money value goes down. If we think that way sure there will be a surge in interest rates in the coming era as I guess could be in double digit (some times more than even 14%). There could be sure some housing prices chances to go down – however … with the devaulation again no value to the money situation would keep housing rates at the same level or not much lower…… well I am self talking all these no one can predict but this situation would also be considered.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=Bob][quote=5yearwaiter]Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.[/quote]

Thats a good question, so let me try to explain it as best I can.

Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities are typically used to set long-term mortgage rates. Loans with short initial terms (1-, 3-, and 5- year ARMs are used for shorter-term securities.) So when bond yields drop, typically, conventional mortgage rates fall as well. But, when yields rise, so do mortgage rates. Why? If a lender chooses to sell your mortgage loan to an investor, the lender will likely use Treasury yields as a benchmark for value.

As for Bernanke, when he made the decision to purchase securities, he did so with the goal of reducing bond yields, with the clear intention of lowering mortgage rates. This policy was implemented with the hopes of kickstarting the economy and the real estate market out of its deflationary cycle. But the only way to sustain such low rates will be for the Fed to continue purchasing securities. At some point this summer, Bernanke will have to make an important decision on whether or not to continue this policy. If he continues the policy, that will be a clear indication that the economy hasn’t yet turned the corner…but it will also be a red flag for future inflation.
[/quote]

Bob, don’t you think the current prevaling economy leading a hyper inflation (like in the 1970s Jimmy Carter time a lot minting occured eventually resulted a $ devaluation – such situation generally money value goes down. If we think that way sure there will be a surge in interest rates in the coming era as I guess could be in double digit (some times more than even 14%). There could be sure some housing prices chances to go down – however … with the devaulation again no value to the money situation would keep housing rates at the same level or not much lower…… well I am self talking all these no one can predict but this situation would also be considered.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=Bob][quote=5yearwaiter]Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.[/quote]

Thats a good question, so let me try to explain it as best I can.

Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities are typically used to set long-term mortgage rates. Loans with short initial terms (1-, 3-, and 5- year ARMs are used for shorter-term securities.) So when bond yields drop, typically, conventional mortgage rates fall as well. But, when yields rise, so do mortgage rates. Why? If a lender chooses to sell your mortgage loan to an investor, the lender will likely use Treasury yields as a benchmark for value.

As for Bernanke, when he made the decision to purchase securities, he did so with the goal of reducing bond yields, with the clear intention of lowering mortgage rates. This policy was implemented with the hopes of kickstarting the economy and the real estate market out of its deflationary cycle. But the only way to sustain such low rates will be for the Fed to continue purchasing securities. At some point this summer, Bernanke will have to make an important decision on whether or not to continue this policy. If he continues the policy, that will be a clear indication that the economy hasn’t yet turned the corner…but it will also be a red flag for future inflation.
[/quote]

Bob, don’t you think the current prevaling economy leading a hyper inflation (like in the 1970s Jimmy Carter time a lot minting occured eventually resulted a $ devaluation – such situation generally money value goes down. If we think that way sure there will be a surge in interest rates in the coming era as I guess could be in double digit (some times more than even 14%). There could be sure some housing prices chances to go down – however … with the devaulation again no value to the money situation would keep housing rates at the same level or not much lower…… well I am self talking all these no one can predict but this situation would also be considered.

[Bob]

[quote=5yearwaiter] There could be sure some housing prices chances to go down – however … with the devaulation again no value to the money situation would keep housing rates at the same level or not much lower…… [/quote]

Excellent point, and that could be the plan of last resort by the Feds. Using inflationary forces to prop up prices with the “appearance” of price stability in the housing sector.

[Bob]

[quote=5yearwaiter] There could be sure some housing prices chances to go down – however … with the devaulation again no value to the money situation would keep housing rates at the same level or not much lower…… [/quote]

Excellent point, and that could be the plan of last resort by the Feds. Using inflationary forces to prop up prices with the “appearance” of price stability in the housing sector.

[Bob]

[quote=5yearwaiter] There could be sure some housing prices chances to go down – however … with the devaulation again no value to the money situation would keep housing rates at the same level or not much lower…… [/quote]

Excellent point, and that could be the plan of last resort by the Feds. Using inflationary forces to prop up prices with the “appearance” of price stability in the housing sector.

[Bob]

[quote=5yearwaiter] There could be sure some housing prices chances to go down – however … with the devaulation again no value to the money situation would keep housing rates at the same level or not much lower…… [/quote]

Excellent point, and that could be the plan of last resort by the Feds. Using inflationary forces to prop up prices with the “appearance” of price stability in the housing sector.

[Author]

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