Mr.Mortgage predicts two bottoms…

[Bob]

[quote]I really don’t understand how they keep interest rates under 5%. The Fed pumping money into treasuries? Then the treasuries bubble pops and we’re all going to die? In what scenario do interest rates increase and housing prices stay the same? Is that possible?[/quote]

I posted this in another thread, but it might help to answer your questions.

I have considerable knowledge of the bond market and fed policy. All I can say is trust me…the bond market is a bubble just waiting to burst. Back in Q1 when the Feds finally realized that demand for US treasuries was weakening, they took drastic measures of last resort…measures that Bernanke was hoping to avoid. Which is to say, the Feds started buying US treasuries in what some might describe as a last ditch panic effort to avoid a depression. So far, Bernanke’s actions seem to be working in the short term, as buying treasuries has had the effect of lowering mortgage rates to record low levels – and as a result, has created a real estate buying frenzy among investors and first timers.

The problem for the Fed, and they are openly discussing it now, is that in order to avoid continued deflation, they have created inflation, and potentially hyper inflation. Later this summer Bernanke will have to make a very important decision…which is to say, he will have to decide whether or not to pull back on future Fed investment in US treasuries. If he decides to pull out, you will see the stock market drop, and at the same time, you will see mortgage rates spike.

[Bob]

[quote=sdduuuude]
You gotta lotta nerve, there Bob, or should I call you “member for 3 weeks Bob” ?[/quote]

Flattery will get you nowhere.

[Bob]

[quote=sdduuuude]
You gotta lotta nerve, there Bob, or should I call you “member for 3 weeks Bob” ?[/quote]

Flattery will get you nowhere.

[Bob]

[quote=sdduuuude]
You gotta lotta nerve, there Bob, or should I call you “member for 3 weeks Bob” ?[/quote]

Flattery will get you nowhere.

[Bob]

[quote=sdduuuude]
You gotta lotta nerve, there Bob, or should I call you “member for 3 weeks Bob” ?[/quote]

Flattery will get you nowhere.

[Bob]

[quote=sdduuuude]
You gotta lotta nerve, there Bob, or should I call you “member for 3 weeks Bob” ?[/quote]

Flattery will get you nowhere.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=PadreBrian]I think there has been a few of us here that said starter home and the commuting burbs will bottom first. Period. So no news there.

[/quote]

This Mr. Mortgage guy is about 2 years behind the curve. As pabloesqobar and sdr also pointed out, we’ve been discussing this for a long time now. It’s to the point where I consider it obvious. But Mr Mortgage comes out with his theory in May 2009 based on detailed analysis of mortgage and default information. He is behind the curve on this one.
Nothing to see here unless you need confirmation.,

Personally, rather than a double bottom, I think I’d rather prefer to see a nice wide bottom in which the two distinct markets carve out nearly identical forms, side-by-side, ultimately forming what jointly would be the perfect bottom.

kinda like this …

[img_assist|nid=8575|title=Hopefully this is what the bottom looks like|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=88|height=124]

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=PadreBrian]I think there has been a few of us here that said starter home and the commuting burbs will bottom first. Period. So no news there.

[/quote]

This Mr. Mortgage guy is about 2 years behind the curve. As pabloesqobar and sdr also pointed out, we’ve been discussing this for a long time now. It’s to the point where I consider it obvious. But Mr Mortgage comes out with his theory in May 2009 based on detailed analysis of mortgage and default information. He is behind the curve on this one.
Nothing to see here unless you need confirmation.,

Personally, rather than a double bottom, I think I’d rather prefer to see a nice wide bottom in which the two distinct markets carve out nearly identical forms, side-by-side, ultimately forming what jointly would be the perfect bottom.

kinda like this …

[img_assist|nid=8575|title=Hopefully this is what the bottom looks like|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=88|height=124]

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=PadreBrian]I think there has been a few of us here that said starter home and the commuting burbs will bottom first. Period. So no news there.

[/quote]

This Mr. Mortgage guy is about 2 years behind the curve. As pabloesqobar and sdr also pointed out, we’ve been discussing this for a long time now. It’s to the point where I consider it obvious. But Mr Mortgage comes out with his theory in May 2009 based on detailed analysis of mortgage and default information. He is behind the curve on this one.
Nothing to see here unless you need confirmation.,

Personally, rather than a double bottom, I think I’d rather prefer to see a nice wide bottom in which the two distinct markets carve out nearly identical forms, side-by-side, ultimately forming what jointly would be the perfect bottom.

kinda like this …

[img_assist|nid=8575|title=Hopefully this is what the bottom looks like|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=88|height=124]

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=PadreBrian]I think there has been a few of us here that said starter home and the commuting burbs will bottom first. Period. So no news there.

[/quote]

This Mr. Mortgage guy is about 2 years behind the curve. As pabloesqobar and sdr also pointed out, we’ve been discussing this for a long time now. It’s to the point where I consider it obvious. But Mr Mortgage comes out with his theory in May 2009 based on detailed analysis of mortgage and default information. He is behind the curve on this one.
Nothing to see here unless you need confirmation.,

Personally, rather than a double bottom, I think I’d rather prefer to see a nice wide bottom in which the two distinct markets carve out nearly identical forms, side-by-side, ultimately forming what jointly would be the perfect bottom.

kinda like this …

[img_assist|nid=8575|title=Hopefully this is what the bottom looks like|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=88|height=124]

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=PadreBrian]I think there has been a few of us here that said starter home and the commuting burbs will bottom first. Period. So no news there.

[/quote]

This Mr. Mortgage guy is about 2 years behind the curve. As pabloesqobar and sdr also pointed out, we’ve been discussing this for a long time now. It’s to the point where I consider it obvious. But Mr Mortgage comes out with his theory in May 2009 based on detailed analysis of mortgage and default information. He is behind the curve on this one.
Nothing to see here unless you need confirmation.,

Personally, rather than a double bottom, I think I’d rather prefer to see a nice wide bottom in which the two distinct markets carve out nearly identical forms, side-by-side, ultimately forming what jointly would be the perfect bottom.

kinda like this …

[img_assist|nid=8575|title=Hopefully this is what the bottom looks like|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=88|height=124]

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=Bob][quote]
If he decides to pull out, you will see the stock market drop, and at the same time, you will see mortgage rates spike.
[/quote]

Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=Bob][quote]
If he decides to pull out, you will see the stock market drop, and at the same time, you will see mortgage rates spike.
[/quote]

Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=Bob][quote]
If he decides to pull out, you will see the stock market drop, and at the same time, you will see mortgage rates spike.
[/quote]

Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=Bob][quote]
If he decides to pull out, you will see the stock market drop, and at the same time, you will see mortgage rates spike.
[/quote]

Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.

[Author]

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