Mr Casagrand’s latest report.

[uncle_git]

http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond/California~San_Diego~bobcasagrand

Interesting stats – it’s starting to look like a “silent spring” – which means the panic should start late summer as inventory continues to build and sales continue to slide. Couple that with a Fed that’s not done yet and I wouldn’t want to be a bag holder, this is going to be a bloodletting of epic proportions.

[an]

I wonder what will be the next date that realtors will use to tell the seller to wait for? First, it’s super bowl, then after tax. The spring they’re waiting for is late and doesn’t seem to be coming. How will they continue to spin this after the summer ends.

[ocrenter]

This spring had an unusual amount of cloudy days and this summer may be too hot. Look for sales to pick up during the fall. Yes, that’s it, fall!!

[john67elco]

LOL

but true!!!!!

[powayseller]

Bob told me today that the continued decline in the under-500K buyer is skewing the statistics. Compared to last year, we have a 12% proportional drop in low-end sales, and a 33% proportional increase in high-end sales. How’s that for getting inside the numbers?

Another realtor told me today that in the 90s the median price did not reflect the total price drops, because houses were getting bigger. If you were looking at $/sq ft, the drops were larger than reported by median price data.

[North County Jim]

I figured you wouldn’t be able to resist a Bob Casagrand thread.

[uncle_git]

Jim – it’s just data.

If you have some local data from your area feel free to post it – the more the merrier IMHO.

[an]

I stop putting too much thoughts into these median numbers. To me, they’re there to convince people who haven’t been following the market closely. I’ve been follow SFH in Mira Mesa, Scripps Ranch, RPQ, Carmel Mt, Poway, and RB under $600k. Zip Realty is a great too. Compare to the similar size house last year, I see at least 10-15% drop in asking price. Houses that used to list for 560k now list between 480k and 500k. These house are in area with practically no yard, so there’s no real lot premium. Since there are several for sale at once, it’s not just an anomoly.

[ocrenter]

good to see you back powayseller! well, good to have you around at bubbletracking.blogspot too. This forum is worth visiting daily once more.

[ocrenter]

absolutely. some of the less desireable cities now have significant price reductions with still no buyers. I think the word is out and we just need to sit tight and wait.

[Anonymous]

We have looked at some houses in Escondido where the price is now 20% more than a model match that closed in march 05!! The condition is not nearly as good on the current listing. Did I miss the 20 %YOY appreciation figures somewhere? I can find nothing suggesting anything even close to this.
Other houses within the ‘appraisal’ area (bigger, higher quality) have closed in 06 for far less per sq.ft. The realtor told us and I quote “an appraiser will use $80 per sq.ft and size the house up or down accordingly” How is that possible when average price per sq.ft is in the high 200’s?

[Steve Beebo]

Lulah –

When the agent said that an appraiser will adjust for different-sized homes at $80 per s.f. – that is just for the size of the home only. Say if there are two homes in a tract – one with 2000 sf and one with 2500 sf – the sale prices of the two homes might be different by $80 x 500 s.f. = $40,000. Let’s say a 2000 s.f. house sells for $600,000 – ($300 per s.f.). But of the $600,000 sale price, maybe $400,000 is in the value of the site – no matter what size of house is on it.

[powayseller]

Yes, and I will post my analysis of the UCLA Anderson report on your site first. I’m still collecting employment data…

[Author]

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