similar sq footage, 3bd/2.5ba SFR sold for $415k on 6/2003, you may be right about 500-550k as the 2004 comp.
why do you say $375k is unlikely? the current asking price for this property is $644k which is around the median price in OC. Are you implying that the median price in OC will hit bottom at $450k? I seriously doubt it.
Historically median prices have always aligned to 2.5 times median income and about 3 times in premium markets like OC. At the median being somewhere around $70k in South OC I see the median aligning back to around $200-250k or so.
THe thing that boggles my mind is that people just can’t think rationally when it comes to home values because they get their emotions into it.
We have to ask ourselves WHAT caused the price to spike up so drastically. So through this forum and other blogs we have discussed it at length – exotic lending, speculation, and fraud. The analogy is like boiling water, as long as there is heat the water boils, turn off the stove and it cools down to room temperature. Remove the demand caused by artificial parameters of the last few years and the prices will re-align to reflect demand caused by actual market fundamentals like income and affordability.
It’s such a simple concept yet so many people refuse to believe it because they just can’t handle reality.
Others argue the market will flatline…well, it can’t. Sooner or later people will NEED to sell. Sooner or later those Option ARMs will reset. Sooner or later speculators and others will have to foreclose because they can’t hold the property any longer. It’s common sense!
Those Laguna Niguel units were built and originally sold peak thru the bottom of last cycle.
If you snoop zillow along the ridge long enough, you’ll find places that sold in ’93-’96 range for low $200s.
Laguna Niguel was the boonies back in late 90s. There wasn’t coffee house or grocery store to be found near.
What factor would you add on for an area completing buildout and instead of being a few isolated subdivisions of homes, they’re now all interconnected with shopping centers, grocery stores, starbucks, etc.
A lot depends on market psychology. If they break $400K, they’ll test $300K. They’re also at the awkward age for homes 10-15 years. Style differences are big enough, wear and tear on long wear items heavy enough, that they becomes distractions yet, new enough that people have’t figured out how to revitalise and reuse the space like they have on the homes build in the 70s/80s out here.
i’m guessing Laguna Niguel has monster mello-roos? In this case no factor needs to be added to the purchase price to compensate for development since mello-roos more than makes up for that.
I used to do the same thing, and never get any responses. The realtor won’t tell you anything unless you submit a formal offer from what I know. It makes sense, what if you were selling a house and a realtor was telling people, “I think the seller will consider that.” You wouldn’t be too happy with the realtor.
Although it would be nice to get that answer, I don’t think you will. Although I wonder if enough people make low ball offers, at some point a seller might have to ponder….
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