MM 3/2 SFR sub 300k

[an]

By no mean do I think we’re at the bottom in Mira Mesa. All I’m saying is, it’s not “expensive”. Not expensive is not equal to bottom. I think it’s at fair price. It’s not cheap, but not expensive either.

[DWCAP]

AN, I agree with you. You are getting into a range now where prices make sense with local incomes. 90k/year couple (thats only 45k each) can call this 3X income. That makes a whole lot more sense than the 450k+ that something like this woulda been sold for in 2005.

Now I may need to be alittle clearer about my “bottom” call. I think MM Houses will fall into this range, as a whole. That includes some of the nicer houses, the ones not on major roads or without kitchens etc etc etc. That means prices will continue to fall some more in the near future.
If we see a spike in unemployment above the ~6.5-7% we see now, then yah it’ll go quite a bit lower. I am convinced the two things that could kill MM real estate are layoffs at Qcomm/pill hill LJ, or a drop in enrollment at UCSD. UCSD may never happen, it is such a good school. But layoffs seem to be a popular thing now. I read something ill post about how the fastest growing reason for defaults on homes is due to job loss, not resets/BS morgages anymore.
I also think there could be some spillover from demand destruction from a falling “fortress” areas like CV, RB, 4S etc etc. But that depends upon the amount the more expensive areas fall.

Regardless, I dont believe these are the lowest prices we will ever see, even if they are not unreasonable prices to current incomes.

[DWCAP]

AN, I agree with you. You are getting into a range now where prices make sense with local incomes. 90k/year couple (thats only 45k each) can call this 3X income. That makes a whole lot more sense than the 450k+ that something like this woulda been sold for in 2005.

Now I may need to be alittle clearer about my “bottom” call. I think MM Houses will fall into this range, as a whole. That includes some of the nicer houses, the ones not on major roads or without kitchens etc etc etc. That means prices will continue to fall some more in the near future.
If we see a spike in unemployment above the ~6.5-7% we see now, then yah it’ll go quite a bit lower. I am convinced the two things that could kill MM real estate are layoffs at Qcomm/pill hill LJ, or a drop in enrollment at UCSD. UCSD may never happen, it is such a good school. But layoffs seem to be a popular thing now. I read something ill post about how the fastest growing reason for defaults on homes is due to job loss, not resets/BS morgages anymore.
I also think there could be some spillover from demand destruction from a falling “fortress” areas like CV, RB, 4S etc etc. But that depends upon the amount the more expensive areas fall.

Regardless, I dont believe these are the lowest prices we will ever see, even if they are not unreasonable prices to current incomes.

[DWCAP]

AN, I agree with you. You are getting into a range now where prices make sense with local incomes. 90k/year couple (thats only 45k each) can call this 3X income. That makes a whole lot more sense than the 450k+ that something like this woulda been sold for in 2005.

Now I may need to be alittle clearer about my “bottom” call. I think MM Houses will fall into this range, as a whole. That includes some of the nicer houses, the ones not on major roads or without kitchens etc etc etc. That means prices will continue to fall some more in the near future.
If we see a spike in unemployment above the ~6.5-7% we see now, then yah it’ll go quite a bit lower. I am convinced the two things that could kill MM real estate are layoffs at Qcomm/pill hill LJ, or a drop in enrollment at UCSD. UCSD may never happen, it is such a good school. But layoffs seem to be a popular thing now. I read something ill post about how the fastest growing reason for defaults on homes is due to job loss, not resets/BS morgages anymore.
I also think there could be some spillover from demand destruction from a falling “fortress” areas like CV, RB, 4S etc etc. But that depends upon the amount the more expensive areas fall.

Regardless, I dont believe these are the lowest prices we will ever see, even if they are not unreasonable prices to current incomes.

[DWCAP]

AN, I agree with you. You are getting into a range now where prices make sense with local incomes. 90k/year couple (thats only 45k each) can call this 3X income. That makes a whole lot more sense than the 450k+ that something like this woulda been sold for in 2005.

Now I may need to be alittle clearer about my “bottom” call. I think MM Houses will fall into this range, as a whole. That includes some of the nicer houses, the ones not on major roads or without kitchens etc etc etc. That means prices will continue to fall some more in the near future.
If we see a spike in unemployment above the ~6.5-7% we see now, then yah it’ll go quite a bit lower. I am convinced the two things that could kill MM real estate are layoffs at Qcomm/pill hill LJ, or a drop in enrollment at UCSD. UCSD may never happen, it is such a good school. But layoffs seem to be a popular thing now. I read something ill post about how the fastest growing reason for defaults on homes is due to job loss, not resets/BS morgages anymore.
I also think there could be some spillover from demand destruction from a falling “fortress” areas like CV, RB, 4S etc etc. But that depends upon the amount the more expensive areas fall.

Regardless, I dont believe these are the lowest prices we will ever see, even if they are not unreasonable prices to current incomes.

[DWCAP]

AN, I agree with you. You are getting into a range now where prices make sense with local incomes. 90k/year couple (thats only 45k each) can call this 3X income. That makes a whole lot more sense than the 450k+ that something like this woulda been sold for in 2005.

Now I may need to be alittle clearer about my “bottom” call. I think MM Houses will fall into this range, as a whole. That includes some of the nicer houses, the ones not on major roads or without kitchens etc etc etc. That means prices will continue to fall some more in the near future.
If we see a spike in unemployment above the ~6.5-7% we see now, then yah it’ll go quite a bit lower. I am convinced the two things that could kill MM real estate are layoffs at Qcomm/pill hill LJ, or a drop in enrollment at UCSD. UCSD may never happen, it is such a good school. But layoffs seem to be a popular thing now. I read something ill post about how the fastest growing reason for defaults on homes is due to job loss, not resets/BS morgages anymore.
I also think there could be some spillover from demand destruction from a falling “fortress” areas like CV, RB, 4S etc etc. But that depends upon the amount the more expensive areas fall.

Regardless, I dont believe these are the lowest prices we will ever see, even if they are not unreasonable prices to current incomes.

[Coronita]

[quote=nostradamus]BTW I’m still very skeptical of sales prices I see “officially” listed. I see so many erroneous listings, what’s to say the sales price isn’t wrong?

Look at this one. $1000 for a Calle Cristobal condo.[/quote]

Hmmm. I might have to do 100% financing on that one.

[Coronita]

[quote=nostradamus]BTW I’m still very skeptical of sales prices I see “officially” listed. I see so many erroneous listings, what’s to say the sales price isn’t wrong?

Look at this one. $1000 for a Calle Cristobal condo.[/quote]

Hmmm. I might have to do 100% financing on that one.

[Coronita]

[quote=nostradamus]BTW I’m still very skeptical of sales prices I see “officially” listed. I see so many erroneous listings, what’s to say the sales price isn’t wrong?

Look at this one. $1000 for a Calle Cristobal condo.[/quote]

Hmmm. I might have to do 100% financing on that one.

[Coronita]

[quote=nostradamus]BTW I’m still very skeptical of sales prices I see “officially” listed. I see so many erroneous listings, what’s to say the sales price isn’t wrong?

Look at this one. $1000 for a Calle Cristobal condo.[/quote]

Hmmm. I might have to do 100% financing on that one.

[Coronita]

[quote=nostradamus]BTW I’m still very skeptical of sales prices I see “officially” listed. I see so many erroneous listings, what’s to say the sales price isn’t wrong?

Look at this one. $1000 for a Calle Cristobal condo.[/quote]

Hmmm. I might have to do 100% financing on that one.

[Coronita]

[quote=asianautica]What do you consider expensive and cheap FLU? @ $279k, with 6% interest rate and 20% down, mortgage payment would be around $1300/month. If you + tax + insurance – tax deduction, your monthly payment would be around $1500/month. A 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa goes for around $1500/month. Rental of such house can easily be around $1700-1800/month.[/quote]

Can rent in MM for 3/3 really be around $1800/month? Not doubting you, just asking.

It seemed kinda of high for me. It was thinking more around the $1600/month. But, I don’t know MM well enough to comment.

[Coronita]

[quote=asianautica]What do you consider expensive and cheap FLU? @ $279k, with 6% interest rate and 20% down, mortgage payment would be around $1300/month. If you + tax + insurance – tax deduction, your monthly payment would be around $1500/month. A 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa goes for around $1500/month. Rental of such house can easily be around $1700-1800/month.[/quote]

Can rent in MM for 3/3 really be around $1800/month? Not doubting you, just asking.

It seemed kinda of high for me. It was thinking more around the $1600/month. But, I don’t know MM well enough to comment.

[Coronita]

[quote=asianautica]What do you consider expensive and cheap FLU? @ $279k, with 6% interest rate and 20% down, mortgage payment would be around $1300/month. If you + tax + insurance – tax deduction, your monthly payment would be around $1500/month. A 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa goes for around $1500/month. Rental of such house can easily be around $1700-1800/month.[/quote]

Can rent in MM for 3/3 really be around $1800/month? Not doubting you, just asking.

It seemed kinda of high for me. It was thinking more around the $1600/month. But, I don’t know MM well enough to comment.

[Coronita]

[quote=asianautica]What do you consider expensive and cheap FLU? @ $279k, with 6% interest rate and 20% down, mortgage payment would be around $1300/month. If you + tax + insurance – tax deduction, your monthly payment would be around $1500/month. A 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa goes for around $1500/month. Rental of such house can easily be around $1700-1800/month.[/quote]

Can rent in MM for 3/3 really be around $1800/month? Not doubting you, just asking.

It seemed kinda of high for me. It was thinking more around the $1600/month. But, I don’t know MM well enough to comment.

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