Mira Mesa: no longer affordable for <$200k

[Coronita]

I stopped getting weekly emails from redfin about Mira Mesa about two weeks ago. I thought there was something wrong with my email, so I checked out my redfin account.

Then I realized why.

I had my slumlord filter set to properties with asking prices less than $200k.

Well, there isn’t any anymore.

My, has times changed.

https://www.redfin.com/zipcode/92126

[Coronita]

Inventory is just horrendously low.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Market-92126-Mira_Mesa

PPSF for SFH in MM is around $340/sqft and $315/sqft for condos.

Looks like the lizards are getting more expensive.

There’s like no turnover. Probably, because most the existing owners are all strong hands that don’t need to sell.

[an]

Inventory suck in MM. It would be very interesting to see what this spring/summer looks like.

[flyer]

Seeing this in many neighborhoods, and was just talking about it with family/friends the other day. Like us, we don’t know anyone who ever plans to sell any of their primary or investment properties, so it does not bode well for future buyers–or renters.

[Coronita]

[quote=flyer]Seeing this in many neighborhoods, and was just talking about it with family/friends the other day. Like us, we don’t know anyone who ever plans to sell any of their primary or investment properties, so it does not bode well for future buyers–or renters.[/quote]

The way I look at it, YOY, it’s been about 6.5% return for me for the past 3 years, excluding appreciation. In the worst case scenario, a 19% decline from the purchase price would be around the break even point. That would be 19% below prices that were already cratered when they were purchased. And every additional year of rental income, that break even point goes even lower. Meanwhile, rent keeps rising, albeit at a slower pace. Meanwhile, that CD is still around 1%. And I’m just a small fish. Others with much deeper pockets probably have a much larger risk tolerance, so they probably have even less reasons to sell.

[svelte]

My take on what has happened: we all played musical chairs while the market had cratered and interest rates were very low. We anticipated rates going up and built our nest / investments on places we wanted to stay long term.

Now we’re all settled in so nobody’s moving.

Interest rates are still low, wages aren’t increasing much, no incentive to move up the food chain property wise. It’s gonna be status quo for a bit.

I could be wrong, tomorrow’s March 1, a flood of new properties could spring up on the market overnight.

[The-Shoveler]

There is probably only a hand full of condos less that 200K in all SD county IMO.

It’s very simple (not enough new housing has been built).

Maybe that will change in the next few years, but right now there is starting to be an extreme shortage.

[spdrun]

Two ways to lower prices:
(1) Increase supply
(2) Reduce demand

If you want lower prices, vote for the candidate most likely to “reduce demand” so to speak 😉

[The-Shoveler]

No matter how you slice it, our growing population cannot fit in the existing housing.

[spdrun]

Sure it can. Employment in places like SD drives demand.

During recessions, people tend to double up or stay put in secondary cities.

And, of course, Trumpkin promises to lower our population by about 4%.

[outtamojo]

Value seems to be in mid- high to higher end these days. I see lower end stuff being offered for what used to be higher end ask prices. Would it be a good move to sell the condos and put that money into something higher end or at least more prime? Something like a house in a choice area I could rent out for awhile and give to the kids if they want to live in that area. I wish I had the guts back then to use 15 year mortgages on my rentals.

[Coronita]

[quote=outtamojo]Value seems to be in mid- high to higher end these days. I see lower end stuff being offered for what used to be higher end ask prices. Would it be a good move to sell the condos and put that money into something higher end or at least more prime? Something like a house in a choice area I could rent out for awhile and give to the kids if they want to live in that area. I wish I had the guts back then to use 15 year mortgages on my rentals.[/quote]

We all have our “I wish I had done XXXXX years ago”. You’re not alone. Well, look at it this way. It could have gone badly the other way too. You never know.

I’m going to be spending most of this year and next rebuilding my cash position. One thing that I’ve noticed is that ever since I paid off that god awful mortgage, it definitely feels like I have less net worth at hand. As a result, I’m much more careful with the remaining net worth I do have. Funny how that works.

I think run most efficiently they less liquidity I have. If I’m too liquid, I have a tendency to get slightly less careful on where my spending goes.

[The-Shoveler]

The one housing segment that they are building enough (or even over building) is the higher end of the market (over 1 to 1.2 million) or so.

They are definitely not building enough condos under 300K or SFH under 500K.

At least not in SD county.

I think they will be building quite a few in the next few years along the I-15 600K to 900K homes in north county though.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler]The one housing segment that they are building enough (or even over building) is the higher end of the market (over 1 to 1.2 million) or so.

They are definitely not building enough condos under 300K or SFH under 500K.

At least not in SD county.

I think they will be building quite a few in the next few years along the I-15 600K to 900K homes in north county though.[/quote]

The funny part is I visited Pacific highland ranch off of 56. Most of the new construction is all sold out. These aren’t exactly starter homes either.

[FlyerInHi]

When the predicted debt crisis hits and we have 20% interest rates then house prices will come down.

BG reminded us of Ross Perot on the other thread. He’s been predicting since 1990. And rates have only come down.

[Author]

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