Mira Mesa, Calle Cristobal house for under $500K

[nostradamus]

…there are 10 or so houses, not condos, priced at 350k or less currently

There are over twenty SFRs in that range.  And several close to it which I'm sure can be lowballed down.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS_Listings-32+4-Mira_Mesa

[an]

DWCAP, isn’t PITI = P+I+Tax+Insurance? I understand your argument about Joe 6pac not having the best credit and get the best rate. I guess I’m just projecting myself onto this market. Which is why I’m using the lowest rate available right now. Since people on here are not Joe 6pac, and we all are trying to time the entry point, that’s what I’m trying to calculate. Make no mistake, I don’t think $320k is the bottom by any mean. I think around 300-320k is where using rent as a fundamental, it starts to make a case for buying vs rent. I truly believe we’ll undershoot just as we’ve overshoot. If you look at Rich’s chart, 1997-1998 was well under fundamental trend line. But if you’re buying a place to live, the line starts to blur after it reaches fundamental, because then there’s no saving between rent vs buy and now you’re just speculating that price will fall more. There are a million ways this thing can play out. One of them is price drop to low $200k. Another would be massive inflation, which cause price to stay flat for many years to come. That’s all I’m saying. Some houses are already starting to hit 2002 price in Mira Mesa, btw.

[an]

DWCAP, isn’t PITI = P+I+Tax+Insurance? I understand your argument about Joe 6pac not having the best credit and get the best rate. I guess I’m just projecting myself onto this market. Which is why I’m using the lowest rate available right now. Since people on here are not Joe 6pac, and we all are trying to time the entry point, that’s what I’m trying to calculate. Make no mistake, I don’t think $320k is the bottom by any mean. I think around 300-320k is where using rent as a fundamental, it starts to make a case for buying vs rent. I truly believe we’ll undershoot just as we’ve overshoot. If you look at Rich’s chart, 1997-1998 was well under fundamental trend line. But if you’re buying a place to live, the line starts to blur after it reaches fundamental, because then there’s no saving between rent vs buy and now you’re just speculating that price will fall more. There are a million ways this thing can play out. One of them is price drop to low $200k. Another would be massive inflation, which cause price to stay flat for many years to come. That’s all I’m saying. Some houses are already starting to hit 2002 price in Mira Mesa, btw.

[an]

DWCAP, isn’t PITI = P+I+Tax+Insurance? I understand your argument about Joe 6pac not having the best credit and get the best rate. I guess I’m just projecting myself onto this market. Which is why I’m using the lowest rate available right now. Since people on here are not Joe 6pac, and we all are trying to time the entry point, that’s what I’m trying to calculate. Make no mistake, I don’t think $320k is the bottom by any mean. I think around 300-320k is where using rent as a fundamental, it starts to make a case for buying vs rent. I truly believe we’ll undershoot just as we’ve overshoot. If you look at Rich’s chart, 1997-1998 was well under fundamental trend line. But if you’re buying a place to live, the line starts to blur after it reaches fundamental, because then there’s no saving between rent vs buy and now you’re just speculating that price will fall more. There are a million ways this thing can play out. One of them is price drop to low $200k. Another would be massive inflation, which cause price to stay flat for many years to come. That’s all I’m saying. Some houses are already starting to hit 2002 price in Mira Mesa, btw.

[an]

DWCAP, isn’t PITI = P+I+Tax+Insurance? I understand your argument about Joe 6pac not having the best credit and get the best rate. I guess I’m just projecting myself onto this market. Which is why I’m using the lowest rate available right now. Since people on here are not Joe 6pac, and we all are trying to time the entry point, that’s what I’m trying to calculate. Make no mistake, I don’t think $320k is the bottom by any mean. I think around 300-320k is where using rent as a fundamental, it starts to make a case for buying vs rent. I truly believe we’ll undershoot just as we’ve overshoot. If you look at Rich’s chart, 1997-1998 was well under fundamental trend line. But if you’re buying a place to live, the line starts to blur after it reaches fundamental, because then there’s no saving between rent vs buy and now you’re just speculating that price will fall more. There are a million ways this thing can play out. One of them is price drop to low $200k. Another would be massive inflation, which cause price to stay flat for many years to come. That’s all I’m saying. Some houses are already starting to hit 2002 price in Mira Mesa, btw.

[an]

DWCAP, isn’t PITI = P+I+Tax+Insurance? I understand your argument about Joe 6pac not having the best credit and get the best rate. I guess I’m just projecting myself onto this market. Which is why I’m using the lowest rate available right now. Since people on here are not Joe 6pac, and we all are trying to time the entry point, that’s what I’m trying to calculate. Make no mistake, I don’t think $320k is the bottom by any mean. I think around 300-320k is where using rent as a fundamental, it starts to make a case for buying vs rent. I truly believe we’ll undershoot just as we’ve overshoot. If you look at Rich’s chart, 1997-1998 was well under fundamental trend line. But if you’re buying a place to live, the line starts to blur after it reaches fundamental, because then there’s no saving between rent vs buy and now you’re just speculating that price will fall more. There are a million ways this thing can play out. One of them is price drop to low $200k. Another would be massive inflation, which cause price to stay flat for many years to come. That’s all I’m saying. Some houses are already starting to hit 2002 price in Mira Mesa, btw.

[DWCAP]

I guess we are just arguing semantics now, details over substance. I find 14 SFR’s 350 or less, you find 20. The point is they are there and there are alot of them. Everyone agrees this area is going down, and hard. If it falls like I think it will (1-2 years), 250k will be ~25% BELOW todays bottom of the market prices, which are already 25%ish below the market peak, if not more. All the lurkers here need to keep that in mind as they consider that great deal they are eyeballing.
I try not to project myself into the market. I dont think I am a good example of buyers today. I kinda doubt most people on here are. The median or average (or whatever you wanta use to denote the normal buyer) isnt as well off and isnt as understanding of the market today. Their wife wants a house and they want her to shut up, so they buy when they shouldn’t. Those are emotional not rational reasons to buy and while they influence the market alot, I dont want them to influence me to the greatest extent possible. It is these buyers that will drive this market, not the financially prudent one’s who work off economic reality. So I price things in their terms and gage it against inventory and rents. Everything I see says it is gonna fall. And if the true bottom is 240k, and I miss it and have to buy at 255k, eh! Atleast I didnt buy at 510K!

[DWCAP]

I guess we are just arguing semantics now, details over substance. I find 14 SFR’s 350 or less, you find 20. The point is they are there and there are alot of them. Everyone agrees this area is going down, and hard. If it falls like I think it will (1-2 years), 250k will be ~25% BELOW todays bottom of the market prices, which are already 25%ish below the market peak, if not more. All the lurkers here need to keep that in mind as they consider that great deal they are eyeballing.
I try not to project myself into the market. I dont think I am a good example of buyers today. I kinda doubt most people on here are. The median or average (or whatever you wanta use to denote the normal buyer) isnt as well off and isnt as understanding of the market today. Their wife wants a house and they want her to shut up, so they buy when they shouldn’t. Those are emotional not rational reasons to buy and while they influence the market alot, I dont want them to influence me to the greatest extent possible. It is these buyers that will drive this market, not the financially prudent one’s who work off economic reality. So I price things in their terms and gage it against inventory and rents. Everything I see says it is gonna fall. And if the true bottom is 240k, and I miss it and have to buy at 255k, eh! Atleast I didnt buy at 510K!

[DWCAP]

I guess we are just arguing semantics now, details over substance. I find 14 SFR’s 350 or less, you find 20. The point is they are there and there are alot of them. Everyone agrees this area is going down, and hard. If it falls like I think it will (1-2 years), 250k will be ~25% BELOW todays bottom of the market prices, which are already 25%ish below the market peak, if not more. All the lurkers here need to keep that in mind as they consider that great deal they are eyeballing.
I try not to project myself into the market. I dont think I am a good example of buyers today. I kinda doubt most people on here are. The median or average (or whatever you wanta use to denote the normal buyer) isnt as well off and isnt as understanding of the market today. Their wife wants a house and they want her to shut up, so they buy when they shouldn’t. Those are emotional not rational reasons to buy and while they influence the market alot, I dont want them to influence me to the greatest extent possible. It is these buyers that will drive this market, not the financially prudent one’s who work off economic reality. So I price things in their terms and gage it against inventory and rents. Everything I see says it is gonna fall. And if the true bottom is 240k, and I miss it and have to buy at 255k, eh! Atleast I didnt buy at 510K!

[DWCAP]

I guess we are just arguing semantics now, details over substance. I find 14 SFR’s 350 or less, you find 20. The point is they are there and there are alot of them. Everyone agrees this area is going down, and hard. If it falls like I think it will (1-2 years), 250k will be ~25% BELOW todays bottom of the market prices, which are already 25%ish below the market peak, if not more. All the lurkers here need to keep that in mind as they consider that great deal they are eyeballing.
I try not to project myself into the market. I dont think I am a good example of buyers today. I kinda doubt most people on here are. The median or average (or whatever you wanta use to denote the normal buyer) isnt as well off and isnt as understanding of the market today. Their wife wants a house and they want her to shut up, so they buy when they shouldn’t. Those are emotional not rational reasons to buy and while they influence the market alot, I dont want them to influence me to the greatest extent possible. It is these buyers that will drive this market, not the financially prudent one’s who work off economic reality. So I price things in their terms and gage it against inventory and rents. Everything I see says it is gonna fall. And if the true bottom is 240k, and I miss it and have to buy at 255k, eh! Atleast I didnt buy at 510K!

[DWCAP]

I guess we are just arguing semantics now, details over substance. I find 14 SFR’s 350 or less, you find 20. The point is they are there and there are alot of them. Everyone agrees this area is going down, and hard. If it falls like I think it will (1-2 years), 250k will be ~25% BELOW todays bottom of the market prices, which are already 25%ish below the market peak, if not more. All the lurkers here need to keep that in mind as they consider that great deal they are eyeballing.
I try not to project myself into the market. I dont think I am a good example of buyers today. I kinda doubt most people on here are. The median or average (or whatever you wanta use to denote the normal buyer) isnt as well off and isnt as understanding of the market today. Their wife wants a house and they want her to shut up, so they buy when they shouldn’t. Those are emotional not rational reasons to buy and while they influence the market alot, I dont want them to influence me to the greatest extent possible. It is these buyers that will drive this market, not the financially prudent one’s who work off economic reality. So I price things in their terms and gage it against inventory and rents. Everything I see says it is gonna fall. And if the true bottom is 240k, and I miss it and have to buy at 255k, eh! Atleast I didnt buy at 510K!

[DWCAP]

I guess we are just arguing semantics now, details over substance. I find 14 SFR’s 350 or less, you find 20. The point is they are there and there are alot of them. Everyone agrees this area is going down, and hard. If it falls like I think it will (1-2 years), 250k will be ~25% BELOW todays bottom of the market prices, which are already 25%ish below the market peak, if not more. All the lurkers here need to keep that in mind as they consider that great deal they are eyeballing.
I try not to project myself into the market. I dont think I am a good example of buyers today. I kinda doubt most people on here are. The median or average (or whatever you wanta use to denote the normal buyer) isnt as well off and isnt as understanding of the market today. Their wife wants a house and they want her to shut up, so they buy when they shouldn’t. Those are emotional not rational reasons to buy and while they influence the market alot, I dont want them to influence me to the greatest extent possible. It is these buyers that will drive this market, not the financially prudent one’s who work off economic reality. So I price things in their terms and gage it against inventory and rents. Everything I see says it is gonna fall. And if the true bottom is 240k, and I miss it and have to buy at 255k, eh! Atleast I didnt buy at 510K!

[patientlywaiting]

DWCAP, the points that you make sound very intuitive to me. Makes sense.

Would should try to forecast what the average Joe will do. Most people don’t understand amortization, taxes, or anything. They have a blurry concept of tax “write-off” (deductions). But in the end, Average Joe wants money in his pocket. When that is not forthcoming in terms of equity, he will quit buying.

When public sentiment makes a 180 it’ll be hard to turn the ship around again.

[patientlywaiting]

DWCAP, the points that you make sound very intuitive to me. Makes sense.

Would should try to forecast what the average Joe will do. Most people don’t understand amortization, taxes, or anything. They have a blurry concept of tax “write-off” (deductions). But in the end, Average Joe wants money in his pocket. When that is not forthcoming in terms of equity, he will quit buying.

When public sentiment makes a 180 it’ll be hard to turn the ship around again.

[patientlywaiting]

DWCAP, the points that you make sound very intuitive to me. Makes sense.

Would should try to forecast what the average Joe will do. Most people don’t understand amortization, taxes, or anything. They have a blurry concept of tax “write-off” (deductions). But in the end, Average Joe wants money in his pocket. When that is not forthcoming in terms of equity, he will quit buying.

When public sentiment makes a 180 it’ll be hard to turn the ship around again.

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