Mira Mesa, Calle Cristobal house for under $500K

[DWCAP]

I can tell you that the above post is correct. Basically those are ranked by the most recient infill projects in reverse ageing order (ie most recient is best, oldest is worst). The western side of MM is newer and nicer, North is better than South.

I dont disagree with the posts about the value of these houses. They never should have gone for what they did, but they did, so arguing about that is useless. The market was what it was. I saw a 3/2 SFR that sold in 2001 for 198000. It sold in 2005 for ~500k.

I really think the basic late 1970’s-1980’s 3/2 will fall to the mid 200’s. No way you say? 260k with 5% down at 6.25% puts total payments about $2100. That is $300-400 over current rent, but you get the tax deduction to offset the loss equilivent on rent plus oppertunity costs and I think rents will fall alittle. (This is my prediction after all)
Oh,for you would be LL’s dont forget that these are 30+ year old houses that have not always been kept up in tiptop shape, theyll need alot of maintaince, especially considering that the main tenants here are either college students or young families with small children. With high turnover and high maintaince, a monthly loss of 500+ (pretax) on a yearly basis isnt really a great investment. If you used the standard 125X rent for my rent, you get 200k. I think prices will stablize about 25% above that. But if you want, go ahead and be a LL, I always need more people chasing my rent.

[masayako]

+1 exactly what I am planning to say… thanks esmith.

Lots in MM are generally small.

[masayako]

+1 exactly what I am planning to say… thanks esmith.

Lots in MM are generally small.

[masayako]

+1 exactly what I am planning to say… thanks esmith.

Lots in MM are generally small.

[masayako]

+1 exactly what I am planning to say… thanks esmith.

Lots in MM are generally small.

[masayako]

+1 exactly what I am planning to say… thanks esmith.

Lots in MM are generally small.

[Eugene]

Calle Cristobal area, especially its westernmost part (92121 zip code), should be supported by its proximity to CV.

Sure CV has slightly better schools but 200k+ price differential between 3/2 1600 sf’s on opposite sides of the canyon can’t hold for long. And there are way more houses in CV than along Calle Cristobal.

[Eugene]

Calle Cristobal area, especially its westernmost part (92121 zip code), should be supported by its proximity to CV.

Sure CV has slightly better schools but 200k+ price differential between 3/2 1600 sf’s on opposite sides of the canyon can’t hold for long. And there are way more houses in CV than along Calle Cristobal.

[Eugene]

Calle Cristobal area, especially its westernmost part (92121 zip code), should be supported by its proximity to CV.

Sure CV has slightly better schools but 200k+ price differential between 3/2 1600 sf’s on opposite sides of the canyon can’t hold for long. And there are way more houses in CV than along Calle Cristobal.

[Eugene]

Calle Cristobal area, especially its westernmost part (92121 zip code), should be supported by its proximity to CV.

Sure CV has slightly better schools but 200k+ price differential between 3/2 1600 sf’s on opposite sides of the canyon can’t hold for long. And there are way more houses in CV than along Calle Cristobal.

[Eugene]

Calle Cristobal area, especially its westernmost part (92121 zip code), should be supported by its proximity to CV.

Sure CV has slightly better schools but 200k+ price differential between 3/2 1600 sf’s on opposite sides of the canyon can’t hold for long. And there are way more houses in CV than along Calle Cristobal.

[an]

DWCAP, I think your calculation is a little off. A $260k loan w/ 6.25% rate @ 30 year fixed should yield P&I of $1600/month. With 20% down, you’re looking at payment of $1280/month. As you said, a typical 3/2 will rent for around $1800/month.

I agree on the typical renters in this area, but I don’t agree on the 125X rent multiple. It does not take mortgage rate into consideration. One example is at the bottom of last cycle around 1997ish (which now looking back, put prices at undervalued), a typical rent for a 3/2 in MM run for about $1200/month. The price of such homes were around $160k-ish. But interest rates were around 9%. $160k @ 9% over 30 years would be around $1300/month mortgage. Today, such house would rent for around $1800/month. So to keep the rent vs monthly mortgage similar to the bottom of last cycle (which is 10% > rent), you’re looking at house price of around $320k, not $260k you suggested or even $200k if you use the 125X multiple.

Regarding lot size, I don’t think it’s that small when you take into consideration the size of the house. The typical lot is around 5000 sq-ft with houses around 1400 sq-ft. I’ve seen plenty of houses in CV, 4S, PQ, RB, etc, that have lot size around 5000-6000 sq-ft but squeezed houses 2-3X the size.

[an]

DWCAP, I think your calculation is a little off. A $260k loan w/ 6.25% rate @ 30 year fixed should yield P&I of $1600/month. With 20% down, you’re looking at payment of $1280/month. As you said, a typical 3/2 will rent for around $1800/month.

I agree on the typical renters in this area, but I don’t agree on the 125X rent multiple. It does not take mortgage rate into consideration. One example is at the bottom of last cycle around 1997ish (which now looking back, put prices at undervalued), a typical rent for a 3/2 in MM run for about $1200/month. The price of such homes were around $160k-ish. But interest rates were around 9%. $160k @ 9% over 30 years would be around $1300/month mortgage. Today, such house would rent for around $1800/month. So to keep the rent vs monthly mortgage similar to the bottom of last cycle (which is 10% > rent), you’re looking at house price of around $320k, not $260k you suggested or even $200k if you use the 125X multiple.

Regarding lot size, I don’t think it’s that small when you take into consideration the size of the house. The typical lot is around 5000 sq-ft with houses around 1400 sq-ft. I’ve seen plenty of houses in CV, 4S, PQ, RB, etc, that have lot size around 5000-6000 sq-ft but squeezed houses 2-3X the size.

[an]

DWCAP, I think your calculation is a little off. A $260k loan w/ 6.25% rate @ 30 year fixed should yield P&I of $1600/month. With 20% down, you’re looking at payment of $1280/month. As you said, a typical 3/2 will rent for around $1800/month.

I agree on the typical renters in this area, but I don’t agree on the 125X rent multiple. It does not take mortgage rate into consideration. One example is at the bottom of last cycle around 1997ish (which now looking back, put prices at undervalued), a typical rent for a 3/2 in MM run for about $1200/month. The price of such homes were around $160k-ish. But interest rates were around 9%. $160k @ 9% over 30 years would be around $1300/month mortgage. Today, such house would rent for around $1800/month. So to keep the rent vs monthly mortgage similar to the bottom of last cycle (which is 10% > rent), you’re looking at house price of around $320k, not $260k you suggested or even $200k if you use the 125X multiple.

Regarding lot size, I don’t think it’s that small when you take into consideration the size of the house. The typical lot is around 5000 sq-ft with houses around 1400 sq-ft. I’ve seen plenty of houses in CV, 4S, PQ, RB, etc, that have lot size around 5000-6000 sq-ft but squeezed houses 2-3X the size.

[an]

DWCAP, I think your calculation is a little off. A $260k loan w/ 6.25% rate @ 30 year fixed should yield P&I of $1600/month. With 20% down, you’re looking at payment of $1280/month. As you said, a typical 3/2 will rent for around $1800/month.

I agree on the typical renters in this area, but I don’t agree on the 125X rent multiple. It does not take mortgage rate into consideration. One example is at the bottom of last cycle around 1997ish (which now looking back, put prices at undervalued), a typical rent for a 3/2 in MM run for about $1200/month. The price of such homes were around $160k-ish. But interest rates were around 9%. $160k @ 9% over 30 years would be around $1300/month mortgage. Today, such house would rent for around $1800/month. So to keep the rent vs monthly mortgage similar to the bottom of last cycle (which is 10% > rent), you’re looking at house price of around $320k, not $260k you suggested or even $200k if you use the 125X multiple.

Regarding lot size, I don’t think it’s that small when you take into consideration the size of the house. The typical lot is around 5000 sq-ft with houses around 1400 sq-ft. I’ve seen plenty of houses in CV, 4S, PQ, RB, etc, that have lot size around 5000-6000 sq-ft but squeezed houses 2-3X the size.

[Author]

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