Lucera Condo – $199k

[sdnerd]

We are both playing with numbers – we all are. There are a million variables, so we have to make assumptions based off the data we have.

What is the percentage of parents who help their children with the DP on their first home?

According to the statistics you provided, there are nearly 450,000 people aged 20-29 in SD.

According to PayScale the median salary by age for SD is $63,733 (25-44) and $41,884 (18-25). San Diego is one of the highest cities in the nation in regards to % of college graduates – over 40%.

Top 10 college majors (average starting salary) as of March 11th 2008:

http://education-portal.com/articles/Top_10_Paying_College_Majors.html

Of those 450,000 people – what % of them need to be in a position to buy and/or save for a DP to be significant in your opinion?

Depending on what you consider to be a significant amount, I may or may not be able to make a strong case.

(And yes, I know a large portion already own. Each year there are also new fish in the water.)

[sdnerd]

We are both playing with numbers – we all are. There are a million variables, so we have to make assumptions based off the data we have.

What is the percentage of parents who help their children with the DP on their first home?

According to the statistics you provided, there are nearly 450,000 people aged 20-29 in SD.

According to PayScale the median salary by age for SD is $63,733 (25-44) and $41,884 (18-25). San Diego is one of the highest cities in the nation in regards to % of college graduates – over 40%.

Top 10 college majors (average starting salary) as of March 11th 2008:

http://education-portal.com/articles/Top_10_Paying_College_Majors.html

Of those 450,000 people – what % of them need to be in a position to buy and/or save for a DP to be significant in your opinion?

Depending on what you consider to be a significant amount, I may or may not be able to make a strong case.

(And yes, I know a large portion already own. Each year there are also new fish in the water.)

[ibjames]

I’m 32, have friends that are all making 100k or more, some much more. The difference is that I know none of them would buy something like that, and quite a few of them are either flirting with thoughts of leaving or have plans to leave.

Only a few are even thinking about buying, and none of them are thinking of buying soon. They are just saving..

The only one that did buy, had sold their condo for over 100k profit and found a deal in PB for a house with ocean views and took it..

[ibjames]

I’m 32, have friends that are all making 100k or more, some much more. The difference is that I know none of them would buy something like that, and quite a few of them are either flirting with thoughts of leaving or have plans to leave.

Only a few are even thinking about buying, and none of them are thinking of buying soon. They are just saving..

The only one that did buy, had sold their condo for over 100k profit and found a deal in PB for a house with ocean views and took it..

[ibjames]

I’m 32, have friends that are all making 100k or more, some much more. The difference is that I know none of them would buy something like that, and quite a few of them are either flirting with thoughts of leaving or have plans to leave.

Only a few are even thinking about buying, and none of them are thinking of buying soon. They are just saving..

The only one that did buy, had sold their condo for over 100k profit and found a deal in PB for a house with ocean views and took it..

[ibjames]

I’m 32, have friends that are all making 100k or more, some much more. The difference is that I know none of them would buy something like that, and quite a few of them are either flirting with thoughts of leaving or have plans to leave.

Only a few are even thinking about buying, and none of them are thinking of buying soon. They are just saving..

The only one that did buy, had sold their condo for over 100k profit and found a deal in PB for a house with ocean views and took it..

[ibjames]

I’m 32, have friends that are all making 100k or more, some much more. The difference is that I know none of them would buy something like that, and quite a few of them are either flirting with thoughts of leaving or have plans to leave.

Only a few are even thinking about buying, and none of them are thinking of buying soon. They are just saving..

The only one that did buy, had sold their condo for over 100k profit and found a deal in PB for a house with ocean views and took it..

[EJ]

I think I have conservatively shown that the age bracket you suggested will provide a lot of pent up demand only represents a small portion of the population in SD. Again, no number playing just looking at census and income data. That is all that is needed to determine the size of the group you specified.

I read the same: 450k people age 20-30. That is 20% of total population in SD. From the income data (for all households, not just young ones), 30% of the population makes over $100k. This is 6% of the population at the most, since it is likely this age group makes much less than others. No playing with numbers, I even gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed the people 20-30 make as much as their elder brethren. You provided the marriage data (I had assumed the overall of 50% to be conservative), taking us to 2% of the population as married (i.e., combined income) and in the 20-30 age group.

I agree that salaries are higher here than average as well as education level. Neither of which changes the fact that the households in the 20-30 year old demographic making more than 100k that are married is 2% of the population in SD.

What is a significant amount? I don’t know. I could say the same to you … what do you consider a lot of pent up demand? Is 2% of the population a lot? How many of your friends with money to buy want a small condo in UTC? Maybe I am over the hill and out of touch with the younger folk (I am 35) but I wouldn’t consider buying these except as an investment. Currently it doesn’t seem like a very good investment, even if it pencils out as cash flow even, would you want to put your money you have been saving for years into something that is a lot of work to get no return? I am looking for relatively risk-free returns better than my money market account and do not see that in SD real estate. Not yet anyways 🙂

[EJ]

I think I have conservatively shown that the age bracket you suggested will provide a lot of pent up demand only represents a small portion of the population in SD. Again, no number playing just looking at census and income data. That is all that is needed to determine the size of the group you specified.

I read the same: 450k people age 20-30. That is 20% of total population in SD. From the income data (for all households, not just young ones), 30% of the population makes over $100k. This is 6% of the population at the most, since it is likely this age group makes much less than others. No playing with numbers, I even gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed the people 20-30 make as much as their elder brethren. You provided the marriage data (I had assumed the overall of 50% to be conservative), taking us to 2% of the population as married (i.e., combined income) and in the 20-30 age group.

I agree that salaries are higher here than average as well as education level. Neither of which changes the fact that the households in the 20-30 year old demographic making more than 100k that are married is 2% of the population in SD.

What is a significant amount? I don’t know. I could say the same to you … what do you consider a lot of pent up demand? Is 2% of the population a lot? How many of your friends with money to buy want a small condo in UTC? Maybe I am over the hill and out of touch with the younger folk (I am 35) but I wouldn’t consider buying these except as an investment. Currently it doesn’t seem like a very good investment, even if it pencils out as cash flow even, would you want to put your money you have been saving for years into something that is a lot of work to get no return? I am looking for relatively risk-free returns better than my money market account and do not see that in SD real estate. Not yet anyways 🙂

[EJ]

I think I have conservatively shown that the age bracket you suggested will provide a lot of pent up demand only represents a small portion of the population in SD. Again, no number playing just looking at census and income data. That is all that is needed to determine the size of the group you specified.

I read the same: 450k people age 20-30. That is 20% of total population in SD. From the income data (for all households, not just young ones), 30% of the population makes over $100k. This is 6% of the population at the most, since it is likely this age group makes much less than others. No playing with numbers, I even gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed the people 20-30 make as much as their elder brethren. You provided the marriage data (I had assumed the overall of 50% to be conservative), taking us to 2% of the population as married (i.e., combined income) and in the 20-30 age group.

I agree that salaries are higher here than average as well as education level. Neither of which changes the fact that the households in the 20-30 year old demographic making more than 100k that are married is 2% of the population in SD.

What is a significant amount? I don’t know. I could say the same to you … what do you consider a lot of pent up demand? Is 2% of the population a lot? How many of your friends with money to buy want a small condo in UTC? Maybe I am over the hill and out of touch with the younger folk (I am 35) but I wouldn’t consider buying these except as an investment. Currently it doesn’t seem like a very good investment, even if it pencils out as cash flow even, would you want to put your money you have been saving for years into something that is a lot of work to get no return? I am looking for relatively risk-free returns better than my money market account and do not see that in SD real estate. Not yet anyways 🙂

[EJ]

I think I have conservatively shown that the age bracket you suggested will provide a lot of pent up demand only represents a small portion of the population in SD. Again, no number playing just looking at census and income data. That is all that is needed to determine the size of the group you specified.

I read the same: 450k people age 20-30. That is 20% of total population in SD. From the income data (for all households, not just young ones), 30% of the population makes over $100k. This is 6% of the population at the most, since it is likely this age group makes much less than others. No playing with numbers, I even gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed the people 20-30 make as much as their elder brethren. You provided the marriage data (I had assumed the overall of 50% to be conservative), taking us to 2% of the population as married (i.e., combined income) and in the 20-30 age group.

I agree that salaries are higher here than average as well as education level. Neither of which changes the fact that the households in the 20-30 year old demographic making more than 100k that are married is 2% of the population in SD.

What is a significant amount? I don’t know. I could say the same to you … what do you consider a lot of pent up demand? Is 2% of the population a lot? How many of your friends with money to buy want a small condo in UTC? Maybe I am over the hill and out of touch with the younger folk (I am 35) but I wouldn’t consider buying these except as an investment. Currently it doesn’t seem like a very good investment, even if it pencils out as cash flow even, would you want to put your money you have been saving for years into something that is a lot of work to get no return? I am looking for relatively risk-free returns better than my money market account and do not see that in SD real estate. Not yet anyways 🙂

[EJ]

I think I have conservatively shown that the age bracket you suggested will provide a lot of pent up demand only represents a small portion of the population in SD. Again, no number playing just looking at census and income data. That is all that is needed to determine the size of the group you specified.

I read the same: 450k people age 20-30. That is 20% of total population in SD. From the income data (for all households, not just young ones), 30% of the population makes over $100k. This is 6% of the population at the most, since it is likely this age group makes much less than others. No playing with numbers, I even gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed the people 20-30 make as much as their elder brethren. You provided the marriage data (I had assumed the overall of 50% to be conservative), taking us to 2% of the population as married (i.e., combined income) and in the 20-30 age group.

I agree that salaries are higher here than average as well as education level. Neither of which changes the fact that the households in the 20-30 year old demographic making more than 100k that are married is 2% of the population in SD.

What is a significant amount? I don’t know. I could say the same to you … what do you consider a lot of pent up demand? Is 2% of the population a lot? How many of your friends with money to buy want a small condo in UTC? Maybe I am over the hill and out of touch with the younger folk (I am 35) but I wouldn’t consider buying these except as an investment. Currently it doesn’t seem like a very good investment, even if it pencils out as cash flow even, would you want to put your money you have been saving for years into something that is a lot of work to get no return? I am looking for relatively risk-free returns better than my money market account and do not see that in SD real estate. Not yet anyways 🙂

[University City Renter]

I can give 2 recent events that make me fully agree that unemployment is worse than we think.
1) We moved recently (just from one neighborhood to another) I go to pick up the U-haul. I ask where’s the dolly? The guy says he’s out. According to him, he’s rented hundreds of trucks to people moving back east (with his dollies) but only a couple dozen of people have moved here to SD to replenish his supply recently.
2) My wife will graduate soon. GPA extremely high, has good experience, major is a good choice – there should be great demand for people like her. Every time she goes for interview they explain that they were surprised to get hundreds of resumes for the sole position. Head-hunters tell her up front, there are just no jobs right now; job market is the slowest they’ve ever seen. She finally got something but what a painful process!

[University City Renter]

I can give 2 recent events that make me fully agree that unemployment is worse than we think.
1) We moved recently (just from one neighborhood to another) I go to pick up the U-haul. I ask where’s the dolly? The guy says he’s out. According to him, he’s rented hundreds of trucks to people moving back east (with his dollies) but only a couple dozen of people have moved here to SD to replenish his supply recently.
2) My wife will graduate soon. GPA extremely high, has good experience, major is a good choice – there should be great demand for people like her. Every time she goes for interview they explain that they were surprised to get hundreds of resumes for the sole position. Head-hunters tell her up front, there are just no jobs right now; job market is the slowest they’ve ever seen. She finally got something but what a painful process!

[University City Renter]

I can give 2 recent events that make me fully agree that unemployment is worse than we think.
1) We moved recently (just from one neighborhood to another) I go to pick up the U-haul. I ask where’s the dolly? The guy says he’s out. According to him, he’s rented hundreds of trucks to people moving back east (with his dollies) but only a couple dozen of people have moved here to SD to replenish his supply recently.
2) My wife will graduate soon. GPA extremely high, has good experience, major is a good choice – there should be great demand for people like her. Every time she goes for interview they explain that they were surprised to get hundreds of resumes for the sole position. Head-hunters tell her up front, there are just no jobs right now; job market is the slowest they’ve ever seen. She finally got something but what a painful process!

[Author]

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