Lucera Condo – $199k

[EJ]

I guess I misinterpreted the statement:

“a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years”

It sounds like individuals … I agree a greater percentage of households in this age range will have incomes > $100k

About 30% of all households make more than 100k in SD county.
http://factfinder.census.gov/

About 20% of population is 20-30.
http://www.qolsandiego.net/PDF/table_SDCo_demograph.pdf

So assuming that 20-30 are at average incomes this means 6% of population is in that age range and making more than $100k. This is erring in benefit of your point … peak earning years are not until your 50’s.

There are several problems with assuming that this 6% has been saving and is ready to buy. What percent of this age group is married and wanting to buy? Overall, 50% of SD is married, I couldn’t find any marriage data by age but I would guess the percentage is much lower for 20-30 year olds (go to PB on the weekend). Anyhoo, assume 50% for lack of better data, now the contribution of HH in this age/income bracket who would be interested in buying is about 3% of the population.

Now the question is, how many of these people want to pay 300k for a small 2 bedroom apartment in UTC? Even with the conservative assumptions stated, I still don’t see much demand coming from that age group.

[EJ]

I guess I misinterpreted the statement:

“a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years”

It sounds like individuals … I agree a greater percentage of households in this age range will have incomes > $100k

About 30% of all households make more than 100k in SD county.
http://factfinder.census.gov/

About 20% of population is 20-30.
http://www.qolsandiego.net/PDF/table_SDCo_demograph.pdf

So assuming that 20-30 are at average incomes this means 6% of population is in that age range and making more than $100k. This is erring in benefit of your point … peak earning years are not until your 50’s.

There are several problems with assuming that this 6% has been saving and is ready to buy. What percent of this age group is married and wanting to buy? Overall, 50% of SD is married, I couldn’t find any marriage data by age but I would guess the percentage is much lower for 20-30 year olds (go to PB on the weekend). Anyhoo, assume 50% for lack of better data, now the contribution of HH in this age/income bracket who would be interested in buying is about 3% of the population.

Now the question is, how many of these people want to pay 300k for a small 2 bedroom apartment in UTC? Even with the conservative assumptions stated, I still don’t see much demand coming from that age group.

[sdnerd]

There are lots of ways to play with the numbers, and a never ending list of assumptions/scenarios one could play out.

According to those statistics, roughly 40% of SD has a HHI of over $75k. As debated in another thread, at that price range you can save for a $60k DP in just a few years (depending on lifestyle). If parents help out, much faster.

I believe the new average marriage age is somewhere around 26-27 for women and closer to 30 for men; younger in the bible belt/etc.

My whole argument was that a lot of young people are making good money. A large # of these people have been priced out, or simply were not on the market the last 7-10 years. To say that there is no demand, or no money on the sidelines in this age group is very short sighted IMHO.

[sdnerd]

There are lots of ways to play with the numbers, and a never ending list of assumptions/scenarios one could play out.

According to those statistics, roughly 40% of SD has a HHI of over $75k. As debated in another thread, at that price range you can save for a $60k DP in just a few years (depending on lifestyle). If parents help out, much faster.

I believe the new average marriage age is somewhere around 26-27 for women and closer to 30 for men; younger in the bible belt/etc.

My whole argument was that a lot of young people are making good money. A large # of these people have been priced out, or simply were not on the market the last 7-10 years. To say that there is no demand, or no money on the sidelines in this age group is very short sighted IMHO.

[sdnerd]

There are lots of ways to play with the numbers, and a never ending list of assumptions/scenarios one could play out.

According to those statistics, roughly 40% of SD has a HHI of over $75k. As debated in another thread, at that price range you can save for a $60k DP in just a few years (depending on lifestyle). If parents help out, much faster.

I believe the new average marriage age is somewhere around 26-27 for women and closer to 30 for men; younger in the bible belt/etc.

My whole argument was that a lot of young people are making good money. A large # of these people have been priced out, or simply were not on the market the last 7-10 years. To say that there is no demand, or no money on the sidelines in this age group is very short sighted IMHO.

[sdnerd]

There are lots of ways to play with the numbers, and a never ending list of assumptions/scenarios one could play out.

According to those statistics, roughly 40% of SD has a HHI of over $75k. As debated in another thread, at that price range you can save for a $60k DP in just a few years (depending on lifestyle). If parents help out, much faster.

I believe the new average marriage age is somewhere around 26-27 for women and closer to 30 for men; younger in the bible belt/etc.

My whole argument was that a lot of young people are making good money. A large # of these people have been priced out, or simply were not on the market the last 7-10 years. To say that there is no demand, or no money on the sidelines in this age group is very short sighted IMHO.

[sdnerd]

There are lots of ways to play with the numbers, and a never ending list of assumptions/scenarios one could play out.

According to those statistics, roughly 40% of SD has a HHI of over $75k. As debated in another thread, at that price range you can save for a $60k DP in just a few years (depending on lifestyle). If parents help out, much faster.

I believe the new average marriage age is somewhere around 26-27 for women and closer to 30 for men; younger in the bible belt/etc.

My whole argument was that a lot of young people are making good money. A large # of these people have been priced out, or simply were not on the market the last 7-10 years. To say that there is no demand, or no money on the sidelines in this age group is very short sighted IMHO.

[EJ]

I was not playing with numbers. I was showing you data to make my point. All assumptions I made were in favor of your argument and still the data shows there is not a lot of people in your age range that would be in the position to buy.

Using the numbers you state for marriage: 4 out of 10 women and 1 out of 10 men in that age range are married. So my 50% married assumption can be reduced to less than 30%. this brings the contribution of potential demand from this age group to 2%.

As stated on the bottom of page (and the reason I like this site) … In God we trust, everyone else bring data.

I am rebutting your argument that there are a not a lot of people in this age range contributing to demand and using data to support my rebuttal. I am not saying there isn’t anybody, it sounds like you know quite a few, but show me some data that suggest there is a significant amount. I don’t consider 2% a significant amount.

cheers,
EJ

[EJ]

I was not playing with numbers. I was showing you data to make my point. All assumptions I made were in favor of your argument and still the data shows there is not a lot of people in your age range that would be in the position to buy.

Using the numbers you state for marriage: 4 out of 10 women and 1 out of 10 men in that age range are married. So my 50% married assumption can be reduced to less than 30%. this brings the contribution of potential demand from this age group to 2%.

As stated on the bottom of page (and the reason I like this site) … In God we trust, everyone else bring data.

I am rebutting your argument that there are a not a lot of people in this age range contributing to demand and using data to support my rebuttal. I am not saying there isn’t anybody, it sounds like you know quite a few, but show me some data that suggest there is a significant amount. I don’t consider 2% a significant amount.

cheers,
EJ

[EJ]

I was not playing with numbers. I was showing you data to make my point. All assumptions I made were in favor of your argument and still the data shows there is not a lot of people in your age range that would be in the position to buy.

Using the numbers you state for marriage: 4 out of 10 women and 1 out of 10 men in that age range are married. So my 50% married assumption can be reduced to less than 30%. this brings the contribution of potential demand from this age group to 2%.

As stated on the bottom of page (and the reason I like this site) … In God we trust, everyone else bring data.

I am rebutting your argument that there are a not a lot of people in this age range contributing to demand and using data to support my rebuttal. I am not saying there isn’t anybody, it sounds like you know quite a few, but show me some data that suggest there is a significant amount. I don’t consider 2% a significant amount.

cheers,
EJ

[EJ]

I was not playing with numbers. I was showing you data to make my point. All assumptions I made were in favor of your argument and still the data shows there is not a lot of people in your age range that would be in the position to buy.

Using the numbers you state for marriage: 4 out of 10 women and 1 out of 10 men in that age range are married. So my 50% married assumption can be reduced to less than 30%. this brings the contribution of potential demand from this age group to 2%.

As stated on the bottom of page (and the reason I like this site) … In God we trust, everyone else bring data.

I am rebutting your argument that there are a not a lot of people in this age range contributing to demand and using data to support my rebuttal. I am not saying there isn’t anybody, it sounds like you know quite a few, but show me some data that suggest there is a significant amount. I don’t consider 2% a significant amount.

cheers,
EJ

[EJ]

I was not playing with numbers. I was showing you data to make my point. All assumptions I made were in favor of your argument and still the data shows there is not a lot of people in your age range that would be in the position to buy.

Using the numbers you state for marriage: 4 out of 10 women and 1 out of 10 men in that age range are married. So my 50% married assumption can be reduced to less than 30%. this brings the contribution of potential demand from this age group to 2%.

As stated on the bottom of page (and the reason I like this site) … In God we trust, everyone else bring data.

I am rebutting your argument that there are a not a lot of people in this age range contributing to demand and using data to support my rebuttal. I am not saying there isn’t anybody, it sounds like you know quite a few, but show me some data that suggest there is a significant amount. I don’t consider 2% a significant amount.

cheers,
EJ

[sdnerd]

We are both playing with numbers – we all are. There are a million variables, so we have to make assumptions based off the data we have.

What is the percentage of parents who help their children with the DP on their first home?

According to the statistics you provided, there are nearly 450,000 people aged 20-29 in SD.

According to PayScale the median salary by age for SD is $63,733 (25-44) and $41,884 (18-25). San Diego is one of the highest cities in the nation in regards to % of college graduates – over 40%.

Top 10 college majors (average starting salary) as of March 11th 2008:

http://education-portal.com/articles/Top_10_Paying_College_Majors.html

Of those 450,000 people – what % of them need to be in a position to buy and/or save for a DP to be significant in your opinion?

Depending on what you consider to be a significant amount, I may or may not be able to make a strong case.

(And yes, I know a large portion already own. Each year there are also new fish in the water.)

[sdnerd]

We are both playing with numbers – we all are. There are a million variables, so we have to make assumptions based off the data we have.

What is the percentage of parents who help their children with the DP on their first home?

According to the statistics you provided, there are nearly 450,000 people aged 20-29 in SD.

According to PayScale the median salary by age for SD is $63,733 (25-44) and $41,884 (18-25). San Diego is one of the highest cities in the nation in regards to % of college graduates – over 40%.

Top 10 college majors (average starting salary) as of March 11th 2008:

http://education-portal.com/articles/Top_10_Paying_College_Majors.html

Of those 450,000 people – what % of them need to be in a position to buy and/or save for a DP to be significant in your opinion?

Depending on what you consider to be a significant amount, I may or may not be able to make a strong case.

(And yes, I know a large portion already own. Each year there are also new fish in the water.)

[sdnerd]

We are both playing with numbers – we all are. There are a million variables, so we have to make assumptions based off the data we have.

What is the percentage of parents who help their children with the DP on their first home?

According to the statistics you provided, there are nearly 450,000 people aged 20-29 in SD.

According to PayScale the median salary by age for SD is $63,733 (25-44) and $41,884 (18-25). San Diego is one of the highest cities in the nation in regards to % of college graduates – over 40%.

Top 10 college majors (average starting salary) as of March 11th 2008:

http://education-portal.com/articles/Top_10_Paying_College_Majors.html

Of those 450,000 people – what % of them need to be in a position to buy and/or save for a DP to be significant in your opinion?

Depending on what you consider to be a significant amount, I may or may not be able to make a strong case.

(And yes, I know a large portion already own. Each year there are also new fish in the water.)

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