Lucera Condo – $199k

[sdnerd]

Not a professor, but don’t want to divulge too much additional personal information. If prices fall past a certain point, I’m walking on my condo – so I don’t want any disgruntled neighbors tracking me down. 🙂

I could be fired at any moment, as could my wife. My personal business could get swallowed in the recession. No matter where I work, or how good the company or economy is doing – that’s always my personal outlook.

Any one of the 3 would pay the monthly bills, so we’d have to lose all 3 before we’d have to touch any savings.

So far, all 3 are doing great this year and I am very thankful for that. There are a lot of people struggling right now.

Lucera is still getting hit very hard, and rents in the area just keep going up. The HOA is still the biggest negative on Lucera IMHO. They had 2 back-to-back rate increases, and one of the main factors for its price hits IMHO.

[sdnerd]

Not a professor, but don’t want to divulge too much additional personal information. If prices fall past a certain point, I’m walking on my condo – so I don’t want any disgruntled neighbors tracking me down. 🙂

I could be fired at any moment, as could my wife. My personal business could get swallowed in the recession. No matter where I work, or how good the company or economy is doing – that’s always my personal outlook.

Any one of the 3 would pay the monthly bills, so we’d have to lose all 3 before we’d have to touch any savings.

So far, all 3 are doing great this year and I am very thankful for that. There are a lot of people struggling right now.

Lucera is still getting hit very hard, and rents in the area just keep going up. The HOA is still the biggest negative on Lucera IMHO. They had 2 back-to-back rate increases, and one of the main factors for its price hits IMHO.

[EJ]

I think I found the poor assumption about pent up demand:

“a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years”

I don’t have any data to back it up but I believe the number of 20-30 year olds in SD (or anywhere) with an income > $100k is pretty small. I would guess less than one percent of people in that age bracket.

[EJ]

I think I found the poor assumption about pent up demand:

“a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years”

I don’t have any data to back it up but I believe the number of 20-30 year olds in SD (or anywhere) with an income > $100k is pretty small. I would guess less than one percent of people in that age bracket.

[EJ]

I think I found the poor assumption about pent up demand:

“a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years”

I don’t have any data to back it up but I believe the number of 20-30 year olds in SD (or anywhere) with an income > $100k is pretty small. I would guess less than one percent of people in that age bracket.

[EJ]

I think I found the poor assumption about pent up demand:

“a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years”

I don’t have any data to back it up but I believe the number of 20-30 year olds in SD (or anywhere) with an income > $100k is pretty small. I would guess less than one percent of people in that age bracket.

[EJ]

I think I found the poor assumption about pent up demand:

“a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years”

I don’t have any data to back it up but I believe the number of 20-30 year olds in SD (or anywhere) with an income > $100k is pretty small. I would guess less than one percent of people in that age bracket.

[sdnerd]

A household income of $100k is not that difficult if either or both have a college degree or beyond.

Project Manager I: $59-78k
Senior Software Engineer: $92-115k
IT Administrator: $62-82k
…

The list goes on forever. Minimum wage is just under $17k. Managers at In-N-Out burger average $80k a year.

Somehow 1% seems like a rather low number.

[sdnerd]

A household income of $100k is not that difficult if either or both have a college degree or beyond.

Project Manager I: $59-78k
Senior Software Engineer: $92-115k
IT Administrator: $62-82k
…

The list goes on forever. Minimum wage is just under $17k. Managers at In-N-Out burger average $80k a year.

Somehow 1% seems like a rather low number.

[sdnerd]

A household income of $100k is not that difficult if either or both have a college degree or beyond.

Project Manager I: $59-78k
Senior Software Engineer: $92-115k
IT Administrator: $62-82k
…

The list goes on forever. Minimum wage is just under $17k. Managers at In-N-Out burger average $80k a year.

Somehow 1% seems like a rather low number.

[sdnerd]

A household income of $100k is not that difficult if either or both have a college degree or beyond.

Project Manager I: $59-78k
Senior Software Engineer: $92-115k
IT Administrator: $62-82k
…

The list goes on forever. Minimum wage is just under $17k. Managers at In-N-Out burger average $80k a year.

Somehow 1% seems like a rather low number.

[sdnerd]

A household income of $100k is not that difficult if either or both have a college degree or beyond.

Project Manager I: $59-78k
Senior Software Engineer: $92-115k
IT Administrator: $62-82k
…

The list goes on forever. Minimum wage is just under $17k. Managers at In-N-Out burger average $80k a year.

Somehow 1% seems like a rather low number.

[zzz]

To sdnerd’s point that IT is still growing by leaps and bounds, I would have to say based on the number of jobs out there, there is still a lot of demand for IT talent, and people are still moving here for those six figure jobs. Now that’s not to say that the real estate folks aren’t moving out, because they are. But I do agree with sdnerd that there are a lot more 20/30 somethings that have some serious cash. I have also found that SD is filled with a lot of niche businesses that generate a lot of money – and cater to segments that are “less” affected by recessions – meaning that they are doing incredibly well in this market, even better than last year despite the downturn. Very few people I know work for big companies, most work for smaller to mid size firms that have been in business for 10+ years- that are not VC funded. A lot of people I know also work for non SD headquartered businesses – IE bay area companies that have staff down here, or are self employed, own their own companies.

I would also support him that a couple has no problem making 150-200K as a dual income in their mid or late 20’s.
I know many people who worked in other major markets (SF, Chicago, NY) and made 150K+ for many years starting in their mid 20s, early 30s, before moving here. I know its crazy to think some people right out of college made 70-90K at age 21 or 22, but that is the reality in some fields, and often switched jobs every 1-2 years and bumped their pay every time they made a switch.

As SD Realtor has stated many times – there are many reasons why people buy homes. I know of many people in their 30s who are looking to buy in the next year- with substantial cash reserves. They are not looking at their home as an investment opportunity, they simply just want a home. I can’t question the sanity of it, I just happen to agree with sdnerd that there is demand out there – rational or not. I’m not suggesting the demand is great enough to prop up this market – just that it might cause some seasonal or temporary exuberance. I am often surprised by how many people I do know who are willing to buy even though they know the market is going to get worse. Just like I’m often surprised how many people switch luxury cars every 3-5 years despite knowing they lose a substantial portion of the cars value in the first few years. Most people spend their discretionary income on disposable items ( think electronics), entertainment ( eating out, vacations, drinking), or on depreciating assets – is it smart to spend $500-$1000/month of eating out/ drinking – no, but people still do it and so I think people too often apply their own rationality to why others do things. People who make a lot of money want to enjoy the fruits of their labor.

[zzz]

To sdnerd’s point that IT is still growing by leaps and bounds, I would have to say based on the number of jobs out there, there is still a lot of demand for IT talent, and people are still moving here for those six figure jobs. Now that’s not to say that the real estate folks aren’t moving out, because they are. But I do agree with sdnerd that there are a lot more 20/30 somethings that have some serious cash. I have also found that SD is filled with a lot of niche businesses that generate a lot of money – and cater to segments that are “less” affected by recessions – meaning that they are doing incredibly well in this market, even better than last year despite the downturn. Very few people I know work for big companies, most work for smaller to mid size firms that have been in business for 10+ years- that are not VC funded. A lot of people I know also work for non SD headquartered businesses – IE bay area companies that have staff down here, or are self employed, own their own companies.

I would also support him that a couple has no problem making 150-200K as a dual income in their mid or late 20’s.
I know many people who worked in other major markets (SF, Chicago, NY) and made 150K+ for many years starting in their mid 20s, early 30s, before moving here. I know its crazy to think some people right out of college made 70-90K at age 21 or 22, but that is the reality in some fields, and often switched jobs every 1-2 years and bumped their pay every time they made a switch.

As SD Realtor has stated many times – there are many reasons why people buy homes. I know of many people in their 30s who are looking to buy in the next year- with substantial cash reserves. They are not looking at their home as an investment opportunity, they simply just want a home. I can’t question the sanity of it, I just happen to agree with sdnerd that there is demand out there – rational or not. I’m not suggesting the demand is great enough to prop up this market – just that it might cause some seasonal or temporary exuberance. I am often surprised by how many people I do know who are willing to buy even though they know the market is going to get worse. Just like I’m often surprised how many people switch luxury cars every 3-5 years despite knowing they lose a substantial portion of the cars value in the first few years. Most people spend their discretionary income on disposable items ( think electronics), entertainment ( eating out, vacations, drinking), or on depreciating assets – is it smart to spend $500-$1000/month of eating out/ drinking – no, but people still do it and so I think people too often apply their own rationality to why others do things. People who make a lot of money want to enjoy the fruits of their labor.

[zzz]

To sdnerd’s point that IT is still growing by leaps and bounds, I would have to say based on the number of jobs out there, there is still a lot of demand for IT talent, and people are still moving here for those six figure jobs. Now that’s not to say that the real estate folks aren’t moving out, because they are. But I do agree with sdnerd that there are a lot more 20/30 somethings that have some serious cash. I have also found that SD is filled with a lot of niche businesses that generate a lot of money – and cater to segments that are “less” affected by recessions – meaning that they are doing incredibly well in this market, even better than last year despite the downturn. Very few people I know work for big companies, most work for smaller to mid size firms that have been in business for 10+ years- that are not VC funded. A lot of people I know also work for non SD headquartered businesses – IE bay area companies that have staff down here, or are self employed, own their own companies.

I would also support him that a couple has no problem making 150-200K as a dual income in their mid or late 20’s.
I know many people who worked in other major markets (SF, Chicago, NY) and made 150K+ for many years starting in their mid 20s, early 30s, before moving here. I know its crazy to think some people right out of college made 70-90K at age 21 or 22, but that is the reality in some fields, and often switched jobs every 1-2 years and bumped their pay every time they made a switch.

As SD Realtor has stated many times – there are many reasons why people buy homes. I know of many people in their 30s who are looking to buy in the next year- with substantial cash reserves. They are not looking at their home as an investment opportunity, they simply just want a home. I can’t question the sanity of it, I just happen to agree with sdnerd that there is demand out there – rational or not. I’m not suggesting the demand is great enough to prop up this market – just that it might cause some seasonal or temporary exuberance. I am often surprised by how many people I do know who are willing to buy even though they know the market is going to get worse. Just like I’m often surprised how many people switch luxury cars every 3-5 years despite knowing they lose a substantial portion of the cars value in the first few years. Most people spend their discretionary income on disposable items ( think electronics), entertainment ( eating out, vacations, drinking), or on depreciating assets – is it smart to spend $500-$1000/month of eating out/ drinking – no, but people still do it and so I think people too often apply their own rationality to why others do things. People who make a lot of money want to enjoy the fruits of their labor.

[Author]

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