Lucera Condo – $199k

[TheBreeze]

The point I was trying to make is that you should be careful extrapolating based off the circumstances of people you know. It’s not likely to be representative. There’s a lot of inventory out there and I’m sure you and your circle of friends could talk yourselves into buying because all you see around you is prosperity and people hungry to buy. That may not be the case for the majority of twenty- and thirty-somethings.

As for Lucera, that may seem like a good deal, but keep in mind that La Jolla Crossroads is still building. A recent ad on craigslist showed they were offering 860 square-foot 1-bedrooms for between $1350 and $1500. Given all that though, there’s no doubt that someone buying now will be much better off then someone who bought 2 years ago.

I also agree with you that it’s important not to get caught up in the groupthink that can happen on a Web site like this one. Just as its important not to get caught up with the bubble-frenzy crowd, its also important not to become overwhelmed with fear lest you miss opportunities. For example, I’m still making periodic contributions to mutual funds through my 401(k). The market may continue to go down for the next couple of years, but since retirement for me is at least 15 years away, I believe I’ll be in a good situation years from now because I continued to invest in the stock market during the down times.

[TheBreeze]

The point I was trying to make is that you should be careful extrapolating based off the circumstances of people you know. It’s not likely to be representative. There’s a lot of inventory out there and I’m sure you and your circle of friends could talk yourselves into buying because all you see around you is prosperity and people hungry to buy. That may not be the case for the majority of twenty- and thirty-somethings.

As for Lucera, that may seem like a good deal, but keep in mind that La Jolla Crossroads is still building. A recent ad on craigslist showed they were offering 860 square-foot 1-bedrooms for between $1350 and $1500. Given all that though, there’s no doubt that someone buying now will be much better off then someone who bought 2 years ago.

I also agree with you that it’s important not to get caught up in the groupthink that can happen on a Web site like this one. Just as its important not to get caught up with the bubble-frenzy crowd, its also important not to become overwhelmed with fear lest you miss opportunities. For example, I’m still making periodic contributions to mutual funds through my 401(k). The market may continue to go down for the next couple of years, but since retirement for me is at least 15 years away, I believe I’ll be in a good situation years from now because I continued to invest in the stock market during the down times.

[sdnerd]

Ex-SD: I wasn’t referring to your post.

I agree with what you are saying, and it’s mostly in line with my viewpoint to begin with. I’m not sure where this idea that I think housing or job markets are going to improve is coming from. I don’t believe I’ve ever made that claim.

My original stance was that in areas that are in high demand, there is strong job concentration, etc rents will hold the strongest, and there will be demand.

Whether it’s knife catchers, people with too much money, people who saved up a lot and just want the house, or whatever – I think the nicer areas will be bought up as prices *FALL* (repeating it so there is no confusion here) and the #s pencil out.

The perception by some of the posters is that there is no demand, no saved up money, and everyone will want to rent for the next 10+ years. Sans a complete meltdown, I disagree.

[sdnerd]

Ex-SD: I wasn’t referring to your post.

I agree with what you are saying, and it’s mostly in line with my viewpoint to begin with. I’m not sure where this idea that I think housing or job markets are going to improve is coming from. I don’t believe I’ve ever made that claim.

My original stance was that in areas that are in high demand, there is strong job concentration, etc rents will hold the strongest, and there will be demand.

Whether it’s knife catchers, people with too much money, people who saved up a lot and just want the house, or whatever – I think the nicer areas will be bought up as prices *FALL* (repeating it so there is no confusion here) and the #s pencil out.

The perception by some of the posters is that there is no demand, no saved up money, and everyone will want to rent for the next 10+ years. Sans a complete meltdown, I disagree.

[sdnerd]

Ex-SD: I wasn’t referring to your post.

I agree with what you are saying, and it’s mostly in line with my viewpoint to begin with. I’m not sure where this idea that I think housing or job markets are going to improve is coming from. I don’t believe I’ve ever made that claim.

My original stance was that in areas that are in high demand, there is strong job concentration, etc rents will hold the strongest, and there will be demand.

Whether it’s knife catchers, people with too much money, people who saved up a lot and just want the house, or whatever – I think the nicer areas will be bought up as prices *FALL* (repeating it so there is no confusion here) and the #s pencil out.

The perception by some of the posters is that there is no demand, no saved up money, and everyone will want to rent for the next 10+ years. Sans a complete meltdown, I disagree.

[sdnerd]

Ex-SD: I wasn’t referring to your post.

I agree with what you are saying, and it’s mostly in line with my viewpoint to begin with. I’m not sure where this idea that I think housing or job markets are going to improve is coming from. I don’t believe I’ve ever made that claim.

My original stance was that in areas that are in high demand, there is strong job concentration, etc rents will hold the strongest, and there will be demand.

Whether it’s knife catchers, people with too much money, people who saved up a lot and just want the house, or whatever – I think the nicer areas will be bought up as prices *FALL* (repeating it so there is no confusion here) and the #s pencil out.

The perception by some of the posters is that there is no demand, no saved up money, and everyone will want to rent for the next 10+ years. Sans a complete meltdown, I disagree.

[sdnerd]

Ex-SD: I wasn’t referring to your post.

I agree with what you are saying, and it’s mostly in line with my viewpoint to begin with. I’m not sure where this idea that I think housing or job markets are going to improve is coming from. I don’t believe I’ve ever made that claim.

My original stance was that in areas that are in high demand, there is strong job concentration, etc rents will hold the strongest, and there will be demand.

Whether it’s knife catchers, people with too much money, people who saved up a lot and just want the house, or whatever – I think the nicer areas will be bought up as prices *FALL* (repeating it so there is no confusion here) and the #s pencil out.

The perception by some of the posters is that there is no demand, no saved up money, and everyone will want to rent for the next 10+ years. Sans a complete meltdown, I disagree.

[sdnerd]

Breeze:

I wish you had made that post to begin with, it lends to a much better discussion.

I agree.

As I originally stated, I think that Lucera unit is going to fall further. Breaking the $200k price point is big – there is disagreement as to how much further they could fall. I believe only another 10-20% (putting them in the 50-60% off since the top) range.

After that point, the #s start penciling out IMHO where it does start to get attractive.

This area has a lot of job density; so long as that remains I believe rents here will stay strong. Especially as gas goes to $4-5/gal.

(People who commute from Murrieta, etc…. feeling for them)

[sdnerd]

Breeze:

I wish you had made that post to begin with, it lends to a much better discussion.

I agree.

As I originally stated, I think that Lucera unit is going to fall further. Breaking the $200k price point is big – there is disagreement as to how much further they could fall. I believe only another 10-20% (putting them in the 50-60% off since the top) range.

After that point, the #s start penciling out IMHO where it does start to get attractive.

This area has a lot of job density; so long as that remains I believe rents here will stay strong. Especially as gas goes to $4-5/gal.

(People who commute from Murrieta, etc…. feeling for them)

[sdnerd]

Breeze:

I wish you had made that post to begin with, it lends to a much better discussion.

I agree.

As I originally stated, I think that Lucera unit is going to fall further. Breaking the $200k price point is big – there is disagreement as to how much further they could fall. I believe only another 10-20% (putting them in the 50-60% off since the top) range.

After that point, the #s start penciling out IMHO where it does start to get attractive.

This area has a lot of job density; so long as that remains I believe rents here will stay strong. Especially as gas goes to $4-5/gal.

(People who commute from Murrieta, etc…. feeling for them)

[sdnerd]

Breeze:

I wish you had made that post to begin with, it lends to a much better discussion.

I agree.

As I originally stated, I think that Lucera unit is going to fall further. Breaking the $200k price point is big – there is disagreement as to how much further they could fall. I believe only another 10-20% (putting them in the 50-60% off since the top) range.

After that point, the #s start penciling out IMHO where it does start to get attractive.

This area has a lot of job density; so long as that remains I believe rents here will stay strong. Especially as gas goes to $4-5/gal.

(People who commute from Murrieta, etc…. feeling for them)

[sdnerd]

Breeze:

I wish you had made that post to begin with, it lends to a much better discussion.

I agree.

As I originally stated, I think that Lucera unit is going to fall further. Breaking the $200k price point is big – there is disagreement as to how much further they could fall. I believe only another 10-20% (putting them in the 50-60% off since the top) range.

After that point, the #s start penciling out IMHO where it does start to get attractive.

This area has a lot of job density; so long as that remains I believe rents here will stay strong. Especially as gas goes to $4-5/gal.

(People who commute from Murrieta, etc…. feeling for them)

[sdnerd]

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1610277

New REO price leader: $186,850

[sdnerd]

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1610277

New REO price leader: $186,850

[sdnerd]

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1610277

New REO price leader: $186,850

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