LOL: interesting day on the street today…

[Coronita]

[quote=afx114][quote=scaredycat]i can understand typing b instead of m because those letters pretty close on the keyboard. but what if the dude types a z we’re all doomed.[/quote]

What if some dude is trying to dump all his GOOG but instead he accidentally puts Googol in the quantity field?[/quote]

Don’t know, I guess they can’t explain todays almost 200 swing on trading errors again, or can they?

Interesting times we live in… Interesting….

[Arraya]

[quote=patb][quote=Fletch][quote=briansd1]
1) Our debt is denominated in our own currency (can devalue the debt away if needed),
[/quote]

Except that isn’t almost all of our underlying debt (social security and medicare) inflation-indexed, and thus not capable of being “devalued away”?[/quote]

The government controls the index, so, they can adjust it. Also, they set the policy.
If the Feds says “OASDI Social Security Payments are
set to CPI-1.5%” that’s just what they can do.[/quote]

yeah, I’m sure that would be a smooth operation, given the Feds tract record. Just insist there is no inflation with bread at $20 a loaf. haha One of the reasons they are not supposed to inflate away long term obligations is so it does not destroy peoples lives. There is a real world attached to the monetary system and it can’t print “growth”

I’m sure the 90 trillion dollar bond market would have no trouble with that also.

As long as the bond market can punish we wont be inflating away shit. If the bond market can’t punish means the international debt financing model has broken down. That’s world I don’t think anybody wants to see, but probably will at some point

Simple fact is every country wants a lower currency than the next, today. No doubt monetary contortions will take place in the future. That much is guaranteed.

[Arraya]

[quote=patb][quote=Fletch][quote=briansd1]
1) Our debt is denominated in our own currency (can devalue the debt away if needed),
[/quote]

Except that isn’t almost all of our underlying debt (social security and medicare) inflation-indexed, and thus not capable of being “devalued away”?[/quote]

The government controls the index, so, they can adjust it. Also, they set the policy.
If the Feds says “OASDI Social Security Payments are
set to CPI-1.5%” that’s just what they can do.[/quote]

yeah, I’m sure that would be a smooth operation, given the Feds tract record. Just insist there is no inflation with bread at $20 a loaf. haha One of the reasons they are not supposed to inflate away long term obligations is so it does not destroy peoples lives. There is a real world attached to the monetary system and it can’t print “growth”

I’m sure the 90 trillion dollar bond market would have no trouble with that also.

As long as the bond market can punish we wont be inflating away shit. If the bond market can’t punish means the international debt financing model has broken down. That’s world I don’t think anybody wants to see, but probably will at some point

Simple fact is every country wants a lower currency than the next, today. No doubt monetary contortions will take place in the future. That much is guaranteed.

[Arraya]

[quote=patb][quote=Fletch][quote=briansd1]
1) Our debt is denominated in our own currency (can devalue the debt away if needed),
[/quote]

Except that isn’t almost all of our underlying debt (social security and medicare) inflation-indexed, and thus not capable of being “devalued away”?[/quote]

The government controls the index, so, they can adjust it. Also, they set the policy.
If the Feds says “OASDI Social Security Payments are
set to CPI-1.5%” that’s just what they can do.[/quote]

yeah, I’m sure that would be a smooth operation, given the Feds tract record. Just insist there is no inflation with bread at $20 a loaf. haha One of the reasons they are not supposed to inflate away long term obligations is so it does not destroy peoples lives. There is a real world attached to the monetary system and it can’t print “growth”

I’m sure the 90 trillion dollar bond market would have no trouble with that also.

As long as the bond market can punish we wont be inflating away shit. If the bond market can’t punish means the international debt financing model has broken down. That’s world I don’t think anybody wants to see, but probably will at some point

Simple fact is every country wants a lower currency than the next, today. No doubt monetary contortions will take place in the future. That much is guaranteed.

[Arraya]

[quote=patb][quote=Fletch][quote=briansd1]
1) Our debt is denominated in our own currency (can devalue the debt away if needed),
[/quote]

Except that isn’t almost all of our underlying debt (social security and medicare) inflation-indexed, and thus not capable of being “devalued away”?[/quote]

The government controls the index, so, they can adjust it. Also, they set the policy.
If the Feds says “OASDI Social Security Payments are
set to CPI-1.5%” that’s just what they can do.[/quote]

yeah, I’m sure that would be a smooth operation, given the Feds tract record. Just insist there is no inflation with bread at $20 a loaf. haha One of the reasons they are not supposed to inflate away long term obligations is so it does not destroy peoples lives. There is a real world attached to the monetary system and it can’t print “growth”

I’m sure the 90 trillion dollar bond market would have no trouble with that also.

As long as the bond market can punish we wont be inflating away shit. If the bond market can’t punish means the international debt financing model has broken down. That’s world I don’t think anybody wants to see, but probably will at some point

Simple fact is every country wants a lower currency than the next, today. No doubt monetary contortions will take place in the future. That much is guaranteed.

[Arraya]

[quote=patb][quote=Fletch][quote=briansd1]
1) Our debt is denominated in our own currency (can devalue the debt away if needed),
[/quote]

Except that isn’t almost all of our underlying debt (social security and medicare) inflation-indexed, and thus not capable of being “devalued away”?[/quote]

The government controls the index, so, they can adjust it. Also, they set the policy.
If the Feds says “OASDI Social Security Payments are
set to CPI-1.5%” that’s just what they can do.[/quote]

yeah, I’m sure that would be a smooth operation, given the Feds tract record. Just insist there is no inflation with bread at $20 a loaf. haha One of the reasons they are not supposed to inflate away long term obligations is so it does not destroy peoples lives. There is a real world attached to the monetary system and it can’t print “growth”

I’m sure the 90 trillion dollar bond market would have no trouble with that also.

As long as the bond market can punish we wont be inflating away shit. If the bond market can’t punish means the international debt financing model has broken down. That’s world I don’t think anybody wants to see, but probably will at some point

Simple fact is every country wants a lower currency than the next, today. No doubt monetary contortions will take place in the future. That much is guaranteed.

[Arraya]

Late yesterday afternoon, two pieces of legislation tanked in congress: the audit the fed legislation and the break up the big banks legislation. I still think yesterday’s market action was a shot from the bow, saying to the weasels in DC, “we can crash this thing anytime we want. Watch us!”

[Arraya]

Late yesterday afternoon, two pieces of legislation tanked in congress: the audit the fed legislation and the break up the big banks legislation. I still think yesterday’s market action was a shot from the bow, saying to the weasels in DC, “we can crash this thing anytime we want. Watch us!”

[Arraya]

Late yesterday afternoon, two pieces of legislation tanked in congress: the audit the fed legislation and the break up the big banks legislation. I still think yesterday’s market action was a shot from the bow, saying to the weasels in DC, “we can crash this thing anytime we want. Watch us!”

[Arraya]

Late yesterday afternoon, two pieces of legislation tanked in congress: the audit the fed legislation and the break up the big banks legislation. I still think yesterday’s market action was a shot from the bow, saying to the weasels in DC, “we can crash this thing anytime we want. Watch us!”

[Arraya]

Late yesterday afternoon, two pieces of legislation tanked in congress: the audit the fed legislation and the break up the big banks legislation. I still think yesterday’s market action was a shot from the bow, saying to the weasels in DC, “we can crash this thing anytime we want. Watch us!”

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

But I find myself COMPELLED to bet that sometime during the next 24 (or 36) months, we’ll see markets go way below today’s lows, as in 20%, or 30%, or more. That’s why I like the leap put options on the indexes with expiration out to at least late 2011. But those got A LOT more expensive during the last week!
[/quote]

I agree with your logic (although I don’t directly bet on these things). Having said that, Doug Short does a lot of great long-term chart work and this one is my favorites (very Grantham-esque):

http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-regression-charts.html?SP-Composite-real-regression-to-trend

That trend line has 140 years of “truth” behind it. I wouldn’t bet against it. Translation: At some point we’re either (1) headed materially lower, or (2) the S&P isn’t going to return much over the next 10+ years. Either way, the S&P looks like a sucker’s bet from here.

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

But I find myself COMPELLED to bet that sometime during the next 24 (or 36) months, we’ll see markets go way below today’s lows, as in 20%, or 30%, or more. That’s why I like the leap put options on the indexes with expiration out to at least late 2011. But those got A LOT more expensive during the last week!
[/quote]

I agree with your logic (although I don’t directly bet on these things). Having said that, Doug Short does a lot of great long-term chart work and this one is my favorites (very Grantham-esque):

http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-regression-charts.html?SP-Composite-real-regression-to-trend

That trend line has 140 years of “truth” behind it. I wouldn’t bet against it. Translation: At some point we’re either (1) headed materially lower, or (2) the S&P isn’t going to return much over the next 10+ years. Either way, the S&P looks like a sucker’s bet from here.

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

But I find myself COMPELLED to bet that sometime during the next 24 (or 36) months, we’ll see markets go way below today’s lows, as in 20%, or 30%, or more. That’s why I like the leap put options on the indexes with expiration out to at least late 2011. But those got A LOT more expensive during the last week!
[/quote]

I agree with your logic (although I don’t directly bet on these things). Having said that, Doug Short does a lot of great long-term chart work and this one is my favorites (very Grantham-esque):

http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-regression-charts.html?SP-Composite-real-regression-to-trend

That trend line has 140 years of “truth” behind it. I wouldn’t bet against it. Translation: At some point we’re either (1) headed materially lower, or (2) the S&P isn’t going to return much over the next 10+ years. Either way, the S&P looks like a sucker’s bet from here.

[davelj]

[quote=stockstradr]

But I find myself COMPELLED to bet that sometime during the next 24 (or 36) months, we’ll see markets go way below today’s lows, as in 20%, or 30%, or more. That’s why I like the leap put options on the indexes with expiration out to at least late 2011. But those got A LOT more expensive during the last week!
[/quote]

I agree with your logic (although I don’t directly bet on these things). Having said that, Doug Short does a lot of great long-term chart work and this one is my favorites (very Grantham-esque):

http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-regression-charts.html?SP-Composite-real-regression-to-trend

That trend line has 140 years of “truth” behind it. I wouldn’t bet against it. Translation: At some point we’re either (1) headed materially lower, or (2) the S&P isn’t going to return much over the next 10+ years. Either way, the S&P looks like a sucker’s bet from here.

[Author]

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