I forget the specifics, but as I recall, mainstream recognition of a Recession and mention in the media is typically an indicator that the worst is over, and a bottom has hit. Basically, I think we’re in a recession now, and we haven’t hit bottom yet; once the media and average american catches on, it will be a sign that things are improving.
I agree that aggressively cutting taxes right now would be fiscally reckless unless accompanied by cuts to defense and social security.