Latest peak oil news

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=briansd1][quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]
Gee briansd1 Sounds like you should move there.[/quote]

Not move there, but maybe invest there.

Denver was a boom town once, and it has a lot going for it. Cost and quality of life is good.

Shale oil might work out quite well for Denver. There’s also a good sized tech community in the Denver metro area.[/quote]

Sorry but I think that is a little like investing in Antelope Valley, an almost endless supply of build-able flat land, maybe if you could get some of the higher ground area’s with Views.

Not my cup of tea however.

[Arraya]

Lets not fool ourselves.

Do wells peak and decline….? yes, 150 years of observable evidence

Do regions peak and decline…. ? yes, same as above

Will the world peak and decline, given the above….? Can the answer be no?

Timing is the only question. So, yes, it is a fact, at some point. Whether what we observed between 2005-2008 was “It” will be for the history books to decide. Interestingly, M King hubbert, whom accurately predicted US peak in 1955 also predicted a 2005ish peak for world oil production. Of course his accurate prediction for the US was laughed at and scorned. Why was he laughed at I wonder.

Actually, Shell changed what he said for the official company statement to make it seem like it could be much further away.

Still, the game of guessing the date is a parlor game for geologists.

2005 production hit a plateau where price spiked 3 fold over a 42 months and no new production came on line. What does that mean?

Lets just do some basic math. It’s not conclusive, though it will never be until it’s in the rearview mirror.

Maybe another trillion in debt will make the problem go away.

Where’s my “end is nigh” sandwich board, I have an intersection to stalk…

[Arraya]

Lets not fool ourselves.

Do wells peak and decline….? yes, 150 years of observable evidence

Do regions peak and decline…. ? yes, same as above

Will the world peak and decline, given the above….? Can the answer be no?

Timing is the only question. So, yes, it is a fact, at some point. Whether what we observed between 2005-2008 was “It” will be for the history books to decide. Interestingly, M King hubbert, whom accurately predicted US peak in 1955 also predicted a 2005ish peak for world oil production. Of course his accurate prediction for the US was laughed at and scorned. Why was he laughed at I wonder.

Actually, Shell changed what he said for the official company statement to make it seem like it could be much further away.

Still, the game of guessing the date is a parlor game for geologists.

2005 production hit a plateau where price spiked 3 fold over a 42 months and no new production came on line. What does that mean?

Lets just do some basic math. It’s not conclusive, though it will never be until it’s in the rearview mirror.

Maybe another trillion in debt will make the problem go away.

Where’s my “end is nigh” sandwich board, I have an intersection to stalk…

[Arraya]

Lets not fool ourselves.

Do wells peak and decline….? yes, 150 years of observable evidence

Do regions peak and decline…. ? yes, same as above

Will the world peak and decline, given the above….? Can the answer be no?

Timing is the only question. So, yes, it is a fact, at some point. Whether what we observed between 2005-2008 was “It” will be for the history books to decide. Interestingly, M King hubbert, whom accurately predicted US peak in 1955 also predicted a 2005ish peak for world oil production. Of course his accurate prediction for the US was laughed at and scorned. Why was he laughed at I wonder.

Actually, Shell changed what he said for the official company statement to make it seem like it could be much further away.

Still, the game of guessing the date is a parlor game for geologists.

2005 production hit a plateau where price spiked 3 fold over a 42 months and no new production came on line. What does that mean?

Lets just do some basic math. It’s not conclusive, though it will never be until it’s in the rearview mirror.

Maybe another trillion in debt will make the problem go away.

Where’s my “end is nigh” sandwich board, I have an intersection to stalk…

[Arraya]

Lets not fool ourselves.

Do wells peak and decline….? yes, 150 years of observable evidence

Do regions peak and decline…. ? yes, same as above

Will the world peak and decline, given the above….? Can the answer be no?

Timing is the only question. So, yes, it is a fact, at some point. Whether what we observed between 2005-2008 was “It” will be for the history books to decide. Interestingly, M King hubbert, whom accurately predicted US peak in 1955 also predicted a 2005ish peak for world oil production. Of course his accurate prediction for the US was laughed at and scorned. Why was he laughed at I wonder.

Actually, Shell changed what he said for the official company statement to make it seem like it could be much further away.

Still, the game of guessing the date is a parlor game for geologists.

2005 production hit a plateau where price spiked 3 fold over a 42 months and no new production came on line. What does that mean?

Lets just do some basic math. It’s not conclusive, though it will never be until it’s in the rearview mirror.

Maybe another trillion in debt will make the problem go away.

Where’s my “end is nigh” sandwich board, I have an intersection to stalk…

[Arraya]

Lets not fool ourselves.

Do wells peak and decline….? yes, 150 years of observable evidence

Do regions peak and decline…. ? yes, same as above

Will the world peak and decline, given the above….? Can the answer be no?

Timing is the only question. So, yes, it is a fact, at some point. Whether what we observed between 2005-2008 was “It” will be for the history books to decide. Interestingly, M King hubbert, whom accurately predicted US peak in 1955 also predicted a 2005ish peak for world oil production. Of course his accurate prediction for the US was laughed at and scorned. Why was he laughed at I wonder.

Actually, Shell changed what he said for the official company statement to make it seem like it could be much further away.

Still, the game of guessing the date is a parlor game for geologists.

2005 production hit a plateau where price spiked 3 fold over a 42 months and no new production came on line. What does that mean?

Lets just do some basic math. It’s not conclusive, though it will never be until it’s in the rearview mirror.

Maybe another trillion in debt will make the problem go away.

Where’s my “end is nigh” sandwich board, I have an intersection to stalk…

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

One might assume this would affect the price of Oil in USD as well

Acceptance

In September 2008, we offered that the government invented fingers to plug the multitude of holes that sprang open in the financial dike. That imagery would again apply if there were viable fingers attached to a healthy and able arm.

While many dismiss the notion that Greece or Portugal “matter” in the global financial construct, I’ll explain why they might. Concerns in the Euro zone could manifest through a “flight to quality” in the US Dollar, as it has to the tune of 8% in the dollar index (DXY) since the December low.

Those hoping for a stronger greenback should be careful for what they wish, much like the “lower crude will be equity positive” crowd learned in 2008. In an “asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation” environment, a weak currency is a necessary precursor to — but no guarantor of — higher asset class prices. (Se Hyperinflation vs. Deflation)

The hedge fund community currently has the carry trade on in size. If the greenback continues to strengthen, the specter of an unwind increases in kind. Should that occur, asset class positions financed with borrowed dollars would come for sale across the board.

The point of recognition will eventually arrive that our debt issues are cumulative; when that happens, the contagion will no longer be contained. In the meantime, as we edge from here to there, be on the lookout for the unintended consequences of European austerity initiatives, including but not limited to social unrest and the abatement of risk appetites.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

One might assume this would affect the price of Oil in USD as well

Acceptance

In September 2008, we offered that the government invented fingers to plug the multitude of holes that sprang open in the financial dike. That imagery would again apply if there were viable fingers attached to a healthy and able arm.

While many dismiss the notion that Greece or Portugal “matter” in the global financial construct, I’ll explain why they might. Concerns in the Euro zone could manifest through a “flight to quality” in the US Dollar, as it has to the tune of 8% in the dollar index (DXY) since the December low.

Those hoping for a stronger greenback should be careful for what they wish, much like the “lower crude will be equity positive” crowd learned in 2008. In an “asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation” environment, a weak currency is a necessary precursor to — but no guarantor of — higher asset class prices. (Se Hyperinflation vs. Deflation)

The hedge fund community currently has the carry trade on in size. If the greenback continues to strengthen, the specter of an unwind increases in kind. Should that occur, asset class positions financed with borrowed dollars would come for sale across the board.

The point of recognition will eventually arrive that our debt issues are cumulative; when that happens, the contagion will no longer be contained. In the meantime, as we edge from here to there, be on the lookout for the unintended consequences of European austerity initiatives, including but not limited to social unrest and the abatement of risk appetites.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

One might assume this would affect the price of Oil in USD as well

Acceptance

In September 2008, we offered that the government invented fingers to plug the multitude of holes that sprang open in the financial dike. That imagery would again apply if there were viable fingers attached to a healthy and able arm.

While many dismiss the notion that Greece or Portugal “matter” in the global financial construct, I’ll explain why they might. Concerns in the Euro zone could manifest through a “flight to quality” in the US Dollar, as it has to the tune of 8% in the dollar index (DXY) since the December low.

Those hoping for a stronger greenback should be careful for what they wish, much like the “lower crude will be equity positive” crowd learned in 2008. In an “asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation” environment, a weak currency is a necessary precursor to — but no guarantor of — higher asset class prices. (Se Hyperinflation vs. Deflation)

The hedge fund community currently has the carry trade on in size. If the greenback continues to strengthen, the specter of an unwind increases in kind. Should that occur, asset class positions financed with borrowed dollars would come for sale across the board.

The point of recognition will eventually arrive that our debt issues are cumulative; when that happens, the contagion will no longer be contained. In the meantime, as we edge from here to there, be on the lookout for the unintended consequences of European austerity initiatives, including but not limited to social unrest and the abatement of risk appetites.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

One might assume this would affect the price of Oil in USD as well

Acceptance

In September 2008, we offered that the government invented fingers to plug the multitude of holes that sprang open in the financial dike. That imagery would again apply if there were viable fingers attached to a healthy and able arm.

While many dismiss the notion that Greece or Portugal “matter” in the global financial construct, I’ll explain why they might. Concerns in the Euro zone could manifest through a “flight to quality” in the US Dollar, as it has to the tune of 8% in the dollar index (DXY) since the December low.

Those hoping for a stronger greenback should be careful for what they wish, much like the “lower crude will be equity positive” crowd learned in 2008. In an “asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation” environment, a weak currency is a necessary precursor to — but no guarantor of — higher asset class prices. (Se Hyperinflation vs. Deflation)

The hedge fund community currently has the carry trade on in size. If the greenback continues to strengthen, the specter of an unwind increases in kind. Should that occur, asset class positions financed with borrowed dollars would come for sale across the board.

The point of recognition will eventually arrive that our debt issues are cumulative; when that happens, the contagion will no longer be contained. In the meantime, as we edge from here to there, be on the lookout for the unintended consequences of European austerity initiatives, including but not limited to social unrest and the abatement of risk appetites.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

One might assume this would affect the price of Oil in USD as well

Acceptance

In September 2008, we offered that the government invented fingers to plug the multitude of holes that sprang open in the financial dike. That imagery would again apply if there were viable fingers attached to a healthy and able arm.

While many dismiss the notion that Greece or Portugal “matter” in the global financial construct, I’ll explain why they might. Concerns in the Euro zone could manifest through a “flight to quality” in the US Dollar, as it has to the tune of 8% in the dollar index (DXY) since the December low.

Those hoping for a stronger greenback should be careful for what they wish, much like the “lower crude will be equity positive” crowd learned in 2008. In an “asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation” environment, a weak currency is a necessary precursor to — but no guarantor of — higher asset class prices. (Se Hyperinflation vs. Deflation)

The hedge fund community currently has the carry trade on in size. If the greenback continues to strengthen, the specter of an unwind increases in kind. Should that occur, asset class positions financed with borrowed dollars would come for sale across the board.

The point of recognition will eventually arrive that our debt issues are cumulative; when that happens, the contagion will no longer be contained. In the meantime, as we edge from here to there, be on the lookout for the unintended consequences of European austerity initiatives, including but not limited to social unrest and the abatement of risk appetites.

[equalizer]

[quote=Rich Toscano]davelj, you are correct, peak oil is absolutely not accepted as fact by all experts. But I would note that CERA is famous for their optimistic view on oil production (not to mention their dismal forecasting record). They come across to me as the NAR of oil forecasting.

To be clear, I realize that you weren’t endorsing the views of CERA, and that you were just rebutting the “observation vs theory” statement — I just couldn’t help taking a shot at CERA.

rich[/quote]
There are very few people with any credibility in economic forecasting. Therefore, the best person to ask about peak oil, etc is the experienced CEO, and there is no one with more experience than Lee Raymond. Humanitarian of the year he may not be, but you can’t deny his excellent management skills.

XOM can afford to buy all the top scientists and economists in the world and therefore it is instructive to watch what their investments. (Talk is cheap, CERA)

“These resources are attractively positioned to increase natural gas production and to meet the growing demand for natural gas, which is expected to be the single biggest contributor to the U.S. and global energy mix over the coming decades,” Vice president of investor relations at Exxon Mobil, commenting on Dec 2009 $41 Billion bid for XTO Energy. http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/12/15/15greenwire-exxons-bid-spotlights-bright-future-for-natura-56404.html

Check out Raymomd’s Charlie Rose interview from 2005. If this interview went on for 8 hours, listeners would know more about industry than most economists.

Exxon didn’t invest in new refineries
Great quote:”I don’t want Govt to help us when we are in trouble, that is on us, than is for us to manage risk level”

“No credible alternative fuel source was found after massive studies by Exxon in the 70’s. Since then, real price of oil has gone down and the alternatives are still not feasible…Charlie – What about BP and RD Shell and their alternate

…basic laws of thermodynamics haven’t changed since 1980 …
New refineries are not feasible (although expansion of current plants has been done)..Nuclear energy is profitable…”

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/663

From his 2007 interview, Lee talks about conservation, “Therefore, we have to become more efficient in how we use energy. Secondly, on the supply side, we have to try and have access to all available supplies. By that I mean conventional oil and gas, unconventional oil and gas, coal, nuclear, biofuels. Any energy supply source that can be economically competitive is something that we should try and develop and bring into the energy mix.”

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/070718_gharib/

[equalizer]

[quote=Rich Toscano]davelj, you are correct, peak oil is absolutely not accepted as fact by all experts. But I would note that CERA is famous for their optimistic view on oil production (not to mention their dismal forecasting record). They come across to me as the NAR of oil forecasting.

To be clear, I realize that you weren’t endorsing the views of CERA, and that you were just rebutting the “observation vs theory” statement — I just couldn’t help taking a shot at CERA.

rich[/quote]
There are very few people with any credibility in economic forecasting. Therefore, the best person to ask about peak oil, etc is the experienced CEO, and there is no one with more experience than Lee Raymond. Humanitarian of the year he may not be, but you can’t deny his excellent management skills.

XOM can afford to buy all the top scientists and economists in the world and therefore it is instructive to watch what their investments. (Talk is cheap, CERA)

“These resources are attractively positioned to increase natural gas production and to meet the growing demand for natural gas, which is expected to be the single biggest contributor to the U.S. and global energy mix over the coming decades,” Vice president of investor relations at Exxon Mobil, commenting on Dec 2009 $41 Billion bid for XTO Energy. http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/12/15/15greenwire-exxons-bid-spotlights-bright-future-for-natura-56404.html

Check out Raymomd’s Charlie Rose interview from 2005. If this interview went on for 8 hours, listeners would know more about industry than most economists.

Exxon didn’t invest in new refineries
Great quote:”I don’t want Govt to help us when we are in trouble, that is on us, than is for us to manage risk level”

“No credible alternative fuel source was found after massive studies by Exxon in the 70’s. Since then, real price of oil has gone down and the alternatives are still not feasible…Charlie – What about BP and RD Shell and their alternate

…basic laws of thermodynamics haven’t changed since 1980 …
New refineries are not feasible (although expansion of current plants has been done)..Nuclear energy is profitable…”

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/663

From his 2007 interview, Lee talks about conservation, “Therefore, we have to become more efficient in how we use energy. Secondly, on the supply side, we have to try and have access to all available supplies. By that I mean conventional oil and gas, unconventional oil and gas, coal, nuclear, biofuels. Any energy supply source that can be economically competitive is something that we should try and develop and bring into the energy mix.”

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/070718_gharib/

[equalizer]

[quote=Rich Toscano]davelj, you are correct, peak oil is absolutely not accepted as fact by all experts. But I would note that CERA is famous for their optimistic view on oil production (not to mention their dismal forecasting record). They come across to me as the NAR of oil forecasting.

To be clear, I realize that you weren’t endorsing the views of CERA, and that you were just rebutting the “observation vs theory” statement — I just couldn’t help taking a shot at CERA.

rich[/quote]
There are very few people with any credibility in economic forecasting. Therefore, the best person to ask about peak oil, etc is the experienced CEO, and there is no one with more experience than Lee Raymond. Humanitarian of the year he may not be, but you can’t deny his excellent management skills.

XOM can afford to buy all the top scientists and economists in the world and therefore it is instructive to watch what their investments. (Talk is cheap, CERA)

“These resources are attractively positioned to increase natural gas production and to meet the growing demand for natural gas, which is expected to be the single biggest contributor to the U.S. and global energy mix over the coming decades,” Vice president of investor relations at Exxon Mobil, commenting on Dec 2009 $41 Billion bid for XTO Energy. http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/12/15/15greenwire-exxons-bid-spotlights-bright-future-for-natura-56404.html

Check out Raymomd’s Charlie Rose interview from 2005. If this interview went on for 8 hours, listeners would know more about industry than most economists.

Exxon didn’t invest in new refineries
Great quote:”I don’t want Govt to help us when we are in trouble, that is on us, than is for us to manage risk level”

“No credible alternative fuel source was found after massive studies by Exxon in the 70’s. Since then, real price of oil has gone down and the alternatives are still not feasible…Charlie – What about BP and RD Shell and their alternate

…basic laws of thermodynamics haven’t changed since 1980 …
New refineries are not feasible (although expansion of current plants has been done)..Nuclear energy is profitable…”

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/663

From his 2007 interview, Lee talks about conservation, “Therefore, we have to become more efficient in how we use energy. Secondly, on the supply side, we have to try and have access to all available supplies. By that I mean conventional oil and gas, unconventional oil and gas, coal, nuclear, biofuels. Any energy supply source that can be economically competitive is something that we should try and develop and bring into the energy mix.”

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/070718_gharib/

[equalizer]

[quote=Rich Toscano]davelj, you are correct, peak oil is absolutely not accepted as fact by all experts. But I would note that CERA is famous for their optimistic view on oil production (not to mention their dismal forecasting record). They come across to me as the NAR of oil forecasting.

To be clear, I realize that you weren’t endorsing the views of CERA, and that you were just rebutting the “observation vs theory” statement — I just couldn’t help taking a shot at CERA.

rich[/quote]
There are very few people with any credibility in economic forecasting. Therefore, the best person to ask about peak oil, etc is the experienced CEO, and there is no one with more experience than Lee Raymond. Humanitarian of the year he may not be, but you can’t deny his excellent management skills.

XOM can afford to buy all the top scientists and economists in the world and therefore it is instructive to watch what their investments. (Talk is cheap, CERA)

“These resources are attractively positioned to increase natural gas production and to meet the growing demand for natural gas, which is expected to be the single biggest contributor to the U.S. and global energy mix over the coming decades,” Vice president of investor relations at Exxon Mobil, commenting on Dec 2009 $41 Billion bid for XTO Energy. http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/12/15/15greenwire-exxons-bid-spotlights-bright-future-for-natura-56404.html

Check out Raymomd’s Charlie Rose interview from 2005. If this interview went on for 8 hours, listeners would know more about industry than most economists.

Exxon didn’t invest in new refineries
Great quote:”I don’t want Govt to help us when we are in trouble, that is on us, than is for us to manage risk level”

“No credible alternative fuel source was found after massive studies by Exxon in the 70’s. Since then, real price of oil has gone down and the alternatives are still not feasible…Charlie – What about BP and RD Shell and their alternate

…basic laws of thermodynamics haven’t changed since 1980 …
New refineries are not feasible (although expansion of current plants has been done)..Nuclear energy is profitable…”

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/663

From his 2007 interview, Lee talks about conservation, “Therefore, we have to become more efficient in how we use energy. Secondly, on the supply side, we have to try and have access to all available supplies. By that I mean conventional oil and gas, unconventional oil and gas, coal, nuclear, biofuels. Any energy supply source that can be economically competitive is something that we should try and develop and bring into the energy mix.”

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/070718_gharib/

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