June foreclosures stats just in… drum roll please..

[cv2]

[quote=Fearful]Along with everyone else here, I am stumped by the relative strength of Carmel Valley and other areas. Perhaps a significant part of it is the delayed wave of Alt-A and Option ARM resets.[/quote]

Biotech and Pharmaceuticals have major R&D centers in Torrey Pines area and Carmel Valley is their home. However, with oversea outsourcing of R&D going on, they will be greatly affected.

With the likely outcome that Demos sitting in both white house and capitol hill, I think the R&D outsourcing will take up a notch pretty soon.

[cr]

[quote=esmith]On the other hand, foreclosures continued strong through 1997, when the housing market was already recovering.[/quote]

Perhaps people who bought at peak were still walking 6 years later at the bottom. Following a bubble forecloures are clearly necessary to get housing back to reality.

So all these politicians who want to help prevent foreclosures are just stalling the recovery.

[cr]

[quote=esmith]On the other hand, foreclosures continued strong through 1997, when the housing market was already recovering.[/quote]

Perhaps people who bought at peak were still walking 6 years later at the bottom. Following a bubble forecloures are clearly necessary to get housing back to reality.

So all these politicians who want to help prevent foreclosures are just stalling the recovery.

[cr]

[quote=esmith]On the other hand, foreclosures continued strong through 1997, when the housing market was already recovering.[/quote]

Perhaps people who bought at peak were still walking 6 years later at the bottom. Following a bubble forecloures are clearly necessary to get housing back to reality.

So all these politicians who want to help prevent foreclosures are just stalling the recovery.

[cr]

[quote=esmith]On the other hand, foreclosures continued strong through 1997, when the housing market was already recovering.[/quote]

Perhaps people who bought at peak were still walking 6 years later at the bottom. Following a bubble forecloures are clearly necessary to get housing back to reality.

So all these politicians who want to help prevent foreclosures are just stalling the recovery.

[cr]

[quote=esmith]On the other hand, foreclosures continued strong through 1997, when the housing market was already recovering.[/quote]

Perhaps people who bought at peak were still walking 6 years later at the bottom. Following a bubble forecloures are clearly necessary to get housing back to reality.

So all these politicians who want to help prevent foreclosures are just stalling the recovery.

[peterb]

Comparing this RE cycle to the last one from 1990 to 1997 may be a little off. This one seems to be happening a lot faster and with much more severity. I think this is primarily due to all the loans being really bad for the barrower. In the 1990 scenario there was a recession that fueled the housing down-turn. So I think it was a smoother and less harsh down-cycle. This time we have a huge amount of bad loans followed by a recession. Hence the much sharper and severe cycle. The market went up fast and high from 2002 to 2006 and I think we’ll see an equally fast and hard drop due to the current situation. We’re already at or near 2003 prices according to Rich’s charts and this down-cycle is far from over.
Since RE prices are closely tied to employment, I doubt we’ll see the bottom of this cycle until employment starts to improve. So, if there’s another 2 or 3 years of poor employment and more bad loans go REO and interest rates increase, etc…this current “stabilization” in some of the local RE markets may be a false rally and prove to be a loss for all the “investors” that are currently buying.

[peterb]

Comparing this RE cycle to the last one from 1990 to 1997 may be a little off. This one seems to be happening a lot faster and with much more severity. I think this is primarily due to all the loans being really bad for the barrower. In the 1990 scenario there was a recession that fueled the housing down-turn. So I think it was a smoother and less harsh down-cycle. This time we have a huge amount of bad loans followed by a recession. Hence the much sharper and severe cycle. The market went up fast and high from 2002 to 2006 and I think we’ll see an equally fast and hard drop due to the current situation. We’re already at or near 2003 prices according to Rich’s charts and this down-cycle is far from over.
Since RE prices are closely tied to employment, I doubt we’ll see the bottom of this cycle until employment starts to improve. So, if there’s another 2 or 3 years of poor employment and more bad loans go REO and interest rates increase, etc…this current “stabilization” in some of the local RE markets may be a false rally and prove to be a loss for all the “investors” that are currently buying.

[peterb]

Comparing this RE cycle to the last one from 1990 to 1997 may be a little off. This one seems to be happening a lot faster and with much more severity. I think this is primarily due to all the loans being really bad for the barrower. In the 1990 scenario there was a recession that fueled the housing down-turn. So I think it was a smoother and less harsh down-cycle. This time we have a huge amount of bad loans followed by a recession. Hence the much sharper and severe cycle. The market went up fast and high from 2002 to 2006 and I think we’ll see an equally fast and hard drop due to the current situation. We’re already at or near 2003 prices according to Rich’s charts and this down-cycle is far from over.
Since RE prices are closely tied to employment, I doubt we’ll see the bottom of this cycle until employment starts to improve. So, if there’s another 2 or 3 years of poor employment and more bad loans go REO and interest rates increase, etc…this current “stabilization” in some of the local RE markets may be a false rally and prove to be a loss for all the “investors” that are currently buying.

[peterb]

Comparing this RE cycle to the last one from 1990 to 1997 may be a little off. This one seems to be happening a lot faster and with much more severity. I think this is primarily due to all the loans being really bad for the barrower. In the 1990 scenario there was a recession that fueled the housing down-turn. So I think it was a smoother and less harsh down-cycle. This time we have a huge amount of bad loans followed by a recession. Hence the much sharper and severe cycle. The market went up fast and high from 2002 to 2006 and I think we’ll see an equally fast and hard drop due to the current situation. We’re already at or near 2003 prices according to Rich’s charts and this down-cycle is far from over.
Since RE prices are closely tied to employment, I doubt we’ll see the bottom of this cycle until employment starts to improve. So, if there’s another 2 or 3 years of poor employment and more bad loans go REO and interest rates increase, etc…this current “stabilization” in some of the local RE markets may be a false rally and prove to be a loss for all the “investors” that are currently buying.

[peterb]

Comparing this RE cycle to the last one from 1990 to 1997 may be a little off. This one seems to be happening a lot faster and with much more severity. I think this is primarily due to all the loans being really bad for the barrower. In the 1990 scenario there was a recession that fueled the housing down-turn. So I think it was a smoother and less harsh down-cycle. This time we have a huge amount of bad loans followed by a recession. Hence the much sharper and severe cycle. The market went up fast and high from 2002 to 2006 and I think we’ll see an equally fast and hard drop due to the current situation. We’re already at or near 2003 prices according to Rich’s charts and this down-cycle is far from over.
Since RE prices are closely tied to employment, I doubt we’ll see the bottom of this cycle until employment starts to improve. So, if there’s another 2 or 3 years of poor employment and more bad loans go REO and interest rates increase, etc…this current “stabilization” in some of the local RE markets may be a false rally and prove to be a loss for all the “investors” that are currently buying.

[University City Renter]

cv2- I work in one of the R&D companies in the area you described. The only R&D people that I know who live in CV (you are correct there are a lot) bought before the boom and have no problem making their mortgage payment. If that extrapolates out to be true of the general population of CV, it may explain why that neighborhood’s home values are not going down as much as others. Also, there are several hospitals close by so you have M.D.’s to buy in CV too.

IMO generally outsourcing’s affect has been minimal so far. A lot of the overseas companies are not very good or absolutely stink. It may become a factor in the future as overseas companies become better. To me what is more of a factor are simply larger companies significantly reducing headcount and/or closing sites. The Ph.D.’s are scared to death and have been for several years now. It is much harder for them to find a job and most would have to move and eat hundreds of thousands of dollars when forced to sell.

[University City Renter]

cv2- I work in one of the R&D companies in the area you described. The only R&D people that I know who live in CV (you are correct there are a lot) bought before the boom and have no problem making their mortgage payment. If that extrapolates out to be true of the general population of CV, it may explain why that neighborhood’s home values are not going down as much as others. Also, there are several hospitals close by so you have M.D.’s to buy in CV too.

IMO generally outsourcing’s affect has been minimal so far. A lot of the overseas companies are not very good or absolutely stink. It may become a factor in the future as overseas companies become better. To me what is more of a factor are simply larger companies significantly reducing headcount and/or closing sites. The Ph.D.’s are scared to death and have been for several years now. It is much harder for them to find a job and most would have to move and eat hundreds of thousands of dollars when forced to sell.

[University City Renter]

cv2- I work in one of the R&D companies in the area you described. The only R&D people that I know who live in CV (you are correct there are a lot) bought before the boom and have no problem making their mortgage payment. If that extrapolates out to be true of the general population of CV, it may explain why that neighborhood’s home values are not going down as much as others. Also, there are several hospitals close by so you have M.D.’s to buy in CV too.

IMO generally outsourcing’s affect has been minimal so far. A lot of the overseas companies are not very good or absolutely stink. It may become a factor in the future as overseas companies become better. To me what is more of a factor are simply larger companies significantly reducing headcount and/or closing sites. The Ph.D.’s are scared to death and have been for several years now. It is much harder for them to find a job and most would have to move and eat hundreds of thousands of dollars when forced to sell.

[University City Renter]

cv2- I work in one of the R&D companies in the area you described. The only R&D people that I know who live in CV (you are correct there are a lot) bought before the boom and have no problem making their mortgage payment. If that extrapolates out to be true of the general population of CV, it may explain why that neighborhood’s home values are not going down as much as others. Also, there are several hospitals close by so you have M.D.’s to buy in CV too.

IMO generally outsourcing’s affect has been minimal so far. A lot of the overseas companies are not very good or absolutely stink. It may become a factor in the future as overseas companies become better. To me what is more of a factor are simply larger companies significantly reducing headcount and/or closing sites. The Ph.D.’s are scared to death and have been for several years now. It is much harder for them to find a job and most would have to move and eat hundreds of thousands of dollars when forced to sell.

[Author]

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