July #’s for SD by Bob Casagrand

[desmond]

http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond/California~San_Diego~bobcasagrand

The numbers keep talking, dismal. ( Now I just need to get 10 words in to post)

[powayseller]

What is interesting, is that most segments show price declines, but a few are flat, and some are actually rising. When you parse the homes into different size segments, some are actually rising. For the realtors out there, can you help explain what this really means, or how to interpret numbers like that? Why is the price change so different among the various sizes?

[sdrealtor]

small sample size, unique products and bad data

[speedingpullet]

LOL!

A statistician’s nightmare.

[powayseller]

Sample size was all San Diego city sales. Perhaps that is too small..

[Diego Mamani]

Not hard to explain. Smallish houses in SD (under 1500 sf) behave more like condos: many were bought recently by investors who now can’t wait to sell them, and so those prices are dropping. OTOH, medium sized houses (2000-2400 sf) haven’t dropped in prices yet because many are actually owner-occupied, and are therefore less liquid. These prices will drop too, but it’ll take some more time–the owners are still in denial and hoping that prices will come back up again next spring. Of course, we know prices can only go down.

BTW, when I read that a segment dropped by 7 or 8%, I interpret that as an actual drop. OTOH, if a segment is up only 0.6%, I of course interpret that as “flat”. Variations less than 1% or 2% (whether up or down), on a y-o-y basis, are within the margin of error.

[no_such_reality]

Ouch. There’s $100K split on asking unsold and asking pending. That’s pretty telling. Those that came off the market as sold are 10% below those that didn’t. The ones that are looking to come off next month are another 5% below that. On top of it, they’re closing in on a 10% drop below their asking price… and back flat to last year.

” The Active inventory has an average asking price of $747,845 while the homes that sold were at an average asking price of $667,336 and the Pending sales had an average asking price of $639,199. Part of this difference is the Actives are a little larger, 1871 sq ft on average versus 1790 sq ft for the sold. “

[Author]

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