Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Jeremy Grantham’s 1Q09 Letter: Fantastic as usual
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May 12, 2009 at 7:58 AM #397624May 12, 2009 at 9:56 AM #397054
davelj
Participant[quote=CA renter][Grantham:] But, as I said, this is all just speculative theory and I don’t have to deal with Congress.
[/quote]Yes, but don’t forget this disclaimer. If we could just wave a wand this crisis would be much easier to deal with.
May 12, 2009 at 9:56 AM #397304Participant[quote=CA renter][Grantham:] But, as I said, this is all just speculative theory and I don’t have to deal with Congress.
[/quote]Yes, but don’t forget this disclaimer. If we could just wave a wand this crisis would be much easier to deal with.
May 12, 2009 at 9:56 AM #397526Participant[quote=CA renter][Grantham:] But, as I said, this is all just speculative theory and I don’t have to deal with Congress.
[/quote]Yes, but don’t forget this disclaimer. If we could just wave a wand this crisis would be much easier to deal with.
May 12, 2009 at 9:56 AM #397585Participant[quote=CA renter][Grantham:] But, as I said, this is all just speculative theory and I don’t have to deal with Congress.
[/quote]Yes, but don’t forget this disclaimer. If we could just wave a wand this crisis would be much easier to deal with.
May 12, 2009 at 9:56 AM #397728Participant[quote=CA renter][Grantham:] But, as I said, this is all just speculative theory and I don’t have to deal with Congress.
[/quote]Yes, but don’t forget this disclaimer. If we could just wave a wand this crisis would be much easier to deal with.
May 12, 2009 at 12:10 PM #397205Arraya
ParticipantOk, this guy has a few good, obvious points, a ton of useless historical information, extreme unrealistic optimism in other areas and big, glaring, flashing-red blind spots.
First off, the claim that housing is in overcorrection is based on what? We have deflationary forces pushing the mean down, a massive inventory control project going on and if it was not for tax payer propped up programs the sales volume would almost be cut in half. That does not portend a overcorrection phase.
He claims the parroted line that we will have small growth by the end then low growth after that is based on what. A feeling? Because it happened before? Based on what data?
He heavily weights the presidential cycle theory? Are you serious? Something economists noticed that sort of, kind of happens when presidents are elected. That is not logic. It is voodoo guesswork based on nothing but, it happened before.
His investment advice seems decent for short term investing and that is about it. Understanding the economic consequences in the real world and looking beyond what the market might do in the short term is a much different story.
I predict he will make huge revisions on this and blame some unseen event or something somebody did wrong.
May 12, 2009 at 12:10 PM #397453ParticipantOk, this guy has a few good, obvious points, a ton of useless historical information, extreme unrealistic optimism in other areas and big, glaring, flashing-red blind spots.
First off, the claim that housing is in overcorrection is based on what? We have deflationary forces pushing the mean down, a massive inventory control project going on and if it was not for tax payer propped up programs the sales volume would almost be cut in half. That does not portend a overcorrection phase.
He claims the parroted line that we will have small growth by the end then low growth after that is based on what. A feeling? Because it happened before? Based on what data?
He heavily weights the presidential cycle theory? Are you serious? Something economists noticed that sort of, kind of happens when presidents are elected. That is not logic. It is voodoo guesswork based on nothing but, it happened before.
His investment advice seems decent for short term investing and that is about it. Understanding the economic consequences in the real world and looking beyond what the market might do in the short term is a much different story.
I predict he will make huge revisions on this and blame some unseen event or something somebody did wrong.
May 12, 2009 at 12:10 PM #397677ParticipantOk, this guy has a few good, obvious points, a ton of useless historical information, extreme unrealistic optimism in other areas and big, glaring, flashing-red blind spots.
First off, the claim that housing is in overcorrection is based on what? We have deflationary forces pushing the mean down, a massive inventory control project going on and if it was not for tax payer propped up programs the sales volume would almost be cut in half. That does not portend a overcorrection phase.
He claims the parroted line that we will have small growth by the end then low growth after that is based on what. A feeling? Because it happened before? Based on what data?
He heavily weights the presidential cycle theory? Are you serious? Something economists noticed that sort of, kind of happens when presidents are elected. That is not logic. It is voodoo guesswork based on nothing but, it happened before.
His investment advice seems decent for short term investing and that is about it. Understanding the economic consequences in the real world and looking beyond what the market might do in the short term is a much different story.
I predict he will make huge revisions on this and blame some unseen event or something somebody did wrong.
May 12, 2009 at 12:10 PM #397734ParticipantOk, this guy has a few good, obvious points, a ton of useless historical information, extreme unrealistic optimism in other areas and big, glaring, flashing-red blind spots.
First off, the claim that housing is in overcorrection is based on what? We have deflationary forces pushing the mean down, a massive inventory control project going on and if it was not for tax payer propped up programs the sales volume would almost be cut in half. That does not portend a overcorrection phase.
He claims the parroted line that we will have small growth by the end then low growth after that is based on what. A feeling? Because it happened before? Based on what data?
He heavily weights the presidential cycle theory? Are you serious? Something economists noticed that sort of, kind of happens when presidents are elected. That is not logic. It is voodoo guesswork based on nothing but, it happened before.
His investment advice seems decent for short term investing and that is about it. Understanding the economic consequences in the real world and looking beyond what the market might do in the short term is a much different story.
I predict he will make huge revisions on this and blame some unseen event or something somebody did wrong.
May 12, 2009 at 12:10 PM #397877ParticipantOk, this guy has a few good, obvious points, a ton of useless historical information, extreme unrealistic optimism in other areas and big, glaring, flashing-red blind spots.
First off, the claim that housing is in overcorrection is based on what? We have deflationary forces pushing the mean down, a massive inventory control project going on and if it was not for tax payer propped up programs the sales volume would almost be cut in half. That does not portend a overcorrection phase.
He claims the parroted line that we will have small growth by the end then low growth after that is based on what. A feeling? Because it happened before? Based on what data?
He heavily weights the presidential cycle theory? Are you serious? Something economists noticed that sort of, kind of happens when presidents are elected. That is not logic. It is voodoo guesswork based on nothing but, it happened before.
His investment advice seems decent for short term investing and that is about it. Understanding the economic consequences in the real world and looking beyond what the market might do in the short term is a much different story.
I predict he will make huge revisions on this and blame some unseen event or something somebody did wrong.
May 12, 2009 at 12:21 PM #397214scaredyclassic
Participantthere are no great minds in finance. there is only luck.
May 12, 2009 at 12:21 PM #397463Participantthere are no great minds in finance. there is only luck.
May 12, 2009 at 12:21 PM #397687Participantthere are no great minds in finance. there is only luck.
May 12, 2009 at 12:21 PM #397744Participantthere are no great minds in finance. there is only luck.
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