Is it just me?

[blahblahblah]

The banks aren’t gonna list those REOs until they are forced to. And guess what, they aren’t going to be forced to because their buddies in the government will keep shovelling OUR money THEIR way. Essentially we have a sort of Soviet system now where the government is paying for housing. Why move out or pay your mortgage when the bank won’t kick you out? Dammit if I knew then what I know now I would have:

1) Bought as many houses as possible with as many crazy loans as I could have gotten.

2) Flipped as many as I could have and used the proceeds to buy some real property in cash out of the country somewhere.

3) Stayed in the nicest, most expensive and hardest-to-sell one here in SD.

4) Stopped making payments on it in 2008.

Hell I’m sure they wouldn’t have kicked me out by now. I’d probably have a couple of more years scot-free there until the sheriff showed up. By then I would have saved a BUNDLE and I’d shuffle off to my foreign retreat.

What sickens me most is the knowledge that quite a few people have done what I just described, AND THEY’RE GOING TO GET AWAY WITH IT with our government’s help. AAAARRRRGH!

[urbanrealtor]

JP:
Perhaps I need to see what you are seeing.

What areas are you seeing examples of what you describe and what is your definition of stealth inventory.

A lot of stuff that registers as non-paying is in the middle of HUD-sponsored mods.

I have encountered this several times when mining the NOD’s.

It is pretty unlikely that these ones (again I don’t have numbers on how many) will end up as REOs.

I have seen numbers that suggest consumer debt has slowed or decreased.
(eg: http://www.thefreelibrary.com/+THE+GREAT+ADJUSTMENT+IS+WELL+UNDER+WAY-a01611840309)

At an anecdotal level, I am seeing only certain restaurants increase in business.

Specifically those with much lower prices.

I don’t see a lot of people wasting discretionary income but maybe I need to see where you are experiencing this.

[urbanrealtor]

JP:
Perhaps I need to see what you are seeing.

What areas are you seeing examples of what you describe and what is your definition of stealth inventory.

A lot of stuff that registers as non-paying is in the middle of HUD-sponsored mods.

I have encountered this several times when mining the NOD’s.

It is pretty unlikely that these ones (again I don’t have numbers on how many) will end up as REOs.

I have seen numbers that suggest consumer debt has slowed or decreased.
(eg: http://www.thefreelibrary.com/+THE+GREAT+ADJUSTMENT+IS+WELL+UNDER+WAY-a01611840309)

At an anecdotal level, I am seeing only certain restaurants increase in business.

Specifically those with much lower prices.

I don’t see a lot of people wasting discretionary income but maybe I need to see where you are experiencing this.

[urbanrealtor]

JP:
Perhaps I need to see what you are seeing.

What areas are you seeing examples of what you describe and what is your definition of stealth inventory.

A lot of stuff that registers as non-paying is in the middle of HUD-sponsored mods.

I have encountered this several times when mining the NOD’s.

It is pretty unlikely that these ones (again I don’t have numbers on how many) will end up as REOs.

I have seen numbers that suggest consumer debt has slowed or decreased.
(eg: http://www.thefreelibrary.com/+THE+GREAT+ADJUSTMENT+IS+WELL+UNDER+WAY-a01611840309)

At an anecdotal level, I am seeing only certain restaurants increase in business.

Specifically those with much lower prices.

I don’t see a lot of people wasting discretionary income but maybe I need to see where you are experiencing this.

[urbanrealtor]

JP:
Perhaps I need to see what you are seeing.

What areas are you seeing examples of what you describe and what is your definition of stealth inventory.

A lot of stuff that registers as non-paying is in the middle of HUD-sponsored mods.

I have encountered this several times when mining the NOD’s.

It is pretty unlikely that these ones (again I don’t have numbers on how many) will end up as REOs.

I have seen numbers that suggest consumer debt has slowed or decreased.
(eg: http://www.thefreelibrary.com/+THE+GREAT+ADJUSTMENT+IS+WELL+UNDER+WAY-a01611840309)

At an anecdotal level, I am seeing only certain restaurants increase in business.

Specifically those with much lower prices.

I don’t see a lot of people wasting discretionary income but maybe I need to see where you are experiencing this.

[urbanrealtor]

JP:
Perhaps I need to see what you are seeing.

What areas are you seeing examples of what you describe and what is your definition of stealth inventory.

A lot of stuff that registers as non-paying is in the middle of HUD-sponsored mods.

I have encountered this several times when mining the NOD’s.

It is pretty unlikely that these ones (again I don’t have numbers on how many) will end up as REOs.

I have seen numbers that suggest consumer debt has slowed or decreased.
(eg: http://www.thefreelibrary.com/+THE+GREAT+ADJUSTMENT+IS+WELL+UNDER+WAY-a01611840309)

At an anecdotal level, I am seeing only certain restaurants increase in business.

Specifically those with much lower prices.

I don’t see a lot of people wasting discretionary income but maybe I need to see where you are experiencing this.

[jpinpb]

[quote=CONCHO]The banks aren’t gonna list those REOs until they are forced to. And guess what, they aren’t going to be forced to because their buddies in the government will keep shovelling OUR money THEIR way. [/quote]

That is VERY true. I used to be of the belief who can last the longest, those who have to sell or those who want to buy. But if the banks don’t foreclose and take their sweet time about it, allowing buyers to stay in their house for free, well, what’s the rush.

[quote]
What sickens me most is the knowledge that quite a few people have done what I just described, AND THEY’RE GOING TO GET AWAY WITH IT with our government’s help. AAAARRRRGH!
[/quote]

I feel your pain greatly.

UR – I monitor 92109, 92037, 92110, 92117, 92106, 92107, 92103, 92104, 92116, 92122, 92130. I’ve marked the NODs on SDL. I do all the SFR and in a few select zips I also mark the condos. The last month 9 out of 10 NODs were not listed for sale, as opposed to throughout last year, 9 out of 10 were listed.

I consider the NODs as stealth. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it seems a high percentage of NODs in the past eventually either were short-sold or became REOs.

The other factor that some bulls do not want to consider is the U6 BLS unemployment number which is now 15.6%. It is expected to rise. What impact will that have on future NODs or future sales or the economy in general.

[jpinpb]

[quote=CONCHO]The banks aren’t gonna list those REOs until they are forced to. And guess what, they aren’t going to be forced to because their buddies in the government will keep shovelling OUR money THEIR way. [/quote]

That is VERY true. I used to be of the belief who can last the longest, those who have to sell or those who want to buy. But if the banks don’t foreclose and take their sweet time about it, allowing buyers to stay in their house for free, well, what’s the rush.

[quote]
What sickens me most is the knowledge that quite a few people have done what I just described, AND THEY’RE GOING TO GET AWAY WITH IT with our government’s help. AAAARRRRGH!
[/quote]

I feel your pain greatly.

UR – I monitor 92109, 92037, 92110, 92117, 92106, 92107, 92103, 92104, 92116, 92122, 92130. I’ve marked the NODs on SDL. I do all the SFR and in a few select zips I also mark the condos. The last month 9 out of 10 NODs were not listed for sale, as opposed to throughout last year, 9 out of 10 were listed.

I consider the NODs as stealth. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it seems a high percentage of NODs in the past eventually either were short-sold or became REOs.

The other factor that some bulls do not want to consider is the U6 BLS unemployment number which is now 15.6%. It is expected to rise. What impact will that have on future NODs or future sales or the economy in general.

[jpinpb]

[quote=CONCHO]The banks aren’t gonna list those REOs until they are forced to. And guess what, they aren’t going to be forced to because their buddies in the government will keep shovelling OUR money THEIR way. [/quote]

That is VERY true. I used to be of the belief who can last the longest, those who have to sell or those who want to buy. But if the banks don’t foreclose and take their sweet time about it, allowing buyers to stay in their house for free, well, what’s the rush.

[quote]
What sickens me most is the knowledge that quite a few people have done what I just described, AND THEY’RE GOING TO GET AWAY WITH IT with our government’s help. AAAARRRRGH!
[/quote]

I feel your pain greatly.

UR – I monitor 92109, 92037, 92110, 92117, 92106, 92107, 92103, 92104, 92116, 92122, 92130. I’ve marked the NODs on SDL. I do all the SFR and in a few select zips I also mark the condos. The last month 9 out of 10 NODs were not listed for sale, as opposed to throughout last year, 9 out of 10 were listed.

I consider the NODs as stealth. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it seems a high percentage of NODs in the past eventually either were short-sold or became REOs.

The other factor that some bulls do not want to consider is the U6 BLS unemployment number which is now 15.6%. It is expected to rise. What impact will that have on future NODs or future sales or the economy in general.

[jpinpb]

[quote=CONCHO]The banks aren’t gonna list those REOs until they are forced to. And guess what, they aren’t going to be forced to because their buddies in the government will keep shovelling OUR money THEIR way. [/quote]

That is VERY true. I used to be of the belief who can last the longest, those who have to sell or those who want to buy. But if the banks don’t foreclose and take their sweet time about it, allowing buyers to stay in their house for free, well, what’s the rush.

[quote]
What sickens me most is the knowledge that quite a few people have done what I just described, AND THEY’RE GOING TO GET AWAY WITH IT with our government’s help. AAAARRRRGH!
[/quote]

I feel your pain greatly.

UR – I monitor 92109, 92037, 92110, 92117, 92106, 92107, 92103, 92104, 92116, 92122, 92130. I’ve marked the NODs on SDL. I do all the SFR and in a few select zips I also mark the condos. The last month 9 out of 10 NODs were not listed for sale, as opposed to throughout last year, 9 out of 10 were listed.

I consider the NODs as stealth. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it seems a high percentage of NODs in the past eventually either were short-sold or became REOs.

The other factor that some bulls do not want to consider is the U6 BLS unemployment number which is now 15.6%. It is expected to rise. What impact will that have on future NODs or future sales or the economy in general.

[jpinpb]

[quote=CONCHO]The banks aren’t gonna list those REOs until they are forced to. And guess what, they aren’t going to be forced to because their buddies in the government will keep shovelling OUR money THEIR way. [/quote]

That is VERY true. I used to be of the belief who can last the longest, those who have to sell or those who want to buy. But if the banks don’t foreclose and take their sweet time about it, allowing buyers to stay in their house for free, well, what’s the rush.

[quote]
What sickens me most is the knowledge that quite a few people have done what I just described, AND THEY’RE GOING TO GET AWAY WITH IT with our government’s help. AAAARRRRGH!
[/quote]

I feel your pain greatly.

UR – I monitor 92109, 92037, 92110, 92117, 92106, 92107, 92103, 92104, 92116, 92122, 92130. I’ve marked the NODs on SDL. I do all the SFR and in a few select zips I also mark the condos. The last month 9 out of 10 NODs were not listed for sale, as opposed to throughout last year, 9 out of 10 were listed.

I consider the NODs as stealth. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it seems a high percentage of NODs in the past eventually either were short-sold or became REOs.

The other factor that some bulls do not want to consider is the U6 BLS unemployment number which is now 15.6%. It is expected to rise. What impact will that have on future NODs or future sales or the economy in general.

[SD Realtor]

“JTR asked me to stop posting on his blog when I said, he was selling optimism. SDR thinks that the RE market is on fire right now. That implies there are a lot of people who are optimistic about the future and enough of them have money to spend.”

The market is on fire right now. I should have added the caviot with the exception of high end but if you talk to any serious buyer who has submitted offers on homes, I bet you they will express EXTREME frustration of multiple bids, getting outbid, and HORRENDOUS inventory selection. I also feel that active pending ratios in many of the zip codes we study are attrocious and more then half of any short sales you see already have offers on them. I am not saying they will close, I am saying they have offers on them. So yes I do believe that many zips are on fire.

As to optimism about the future I am not sure I would assume that. I would simply say that people have found a home they want to buy rather then rent. In fact most all of the buyers (at least those who I have been working with) feel that the economy is going to continue to sputter and unemployment will grow and that the housing market will continue to depreciate. They have the resources to outlast it, and they have made the choice to buy. Trying to figure out why people are buying is close to an exercise in futility.

UR, tracking the trust deeds shows that there is a significant reduction in the number of homes going to foreclosure. Whether that is happening because of the legislative efforts by the government, or because of staffing problems at the lenders themselves, or because of sheer lack of motivation makes no difference. All I know is, if I am a bean counter at a lender, and I can dump that property off so some investor at an inflated price instead of going through the legal hassle of foreclosure, it is a no brainer. Even if I have to sit on the property for months, so what if it is not performing. I get to dump it. No sale, no broker, no commission, no market, no foreclosure proceeding, no trustee sale. The best thing is that everything is backed by our tax dollars. Isn’t that sweet?

Really now, this is possibly the most manipulated market we have ever experienced and it should be painfully obvious to people.

As to the number of homes that are actually bank owned and not yet on the market, the same holds true but yes most of them are coming on the market. Prices are sufficiently low so that those to will sell quickly.

At least for the moment, at least here in San Diego, the effort of constraint combined with low interest rates and price reductions has been IMO wildly successful. Fundamentally this is in no way what a bottom should look like and I know you are not claiming a bottom.

[SD Realtor]

“JTR asked me to stop posting on his blog when I said, he was selling optimism. SDR thinks that the RE market is on fire right now. That implies there are a lot of people who are optimistic about the future and enough of them have money to spend.”

The market is on fire right now. I should have added the caviot with the exception of high end but if you talk to any serious buyer who has submitted offers on homes, I bet you they will express EXTREME frustration of multiple bids, getting outbid, and HORRENDOUS inventory selection. I also feel that active pending ratios in many of the zip codes we study are attrocious and more then half of any short sales you see already have offers on them. I am not saying they will close, I am saying they have offers on them. So yes I do believe that many zips are on fire.

As to optimism about the future I am not sure I would assume that. I would simply say that people have found a home they want to buy rather then rent. In fact most all of the buyers (at least those who I have been working with) feel that the economy is going to continue to sputter and unemployment will grow and that the housing market will continue to depreciate. They have the resources to outlast it, and they have made the choice to buy. Trying to figure out why people are buying is close to an exercise in futility.

UR, tracking the trust deeds shows that there is a significant reduction in the number of homes going to foreclosure. Whether that is happening because of the legislative efforts by the government, or because of staffing problems at the lenders themselves, or because of sheer lack of motivation makes no difference. All I know is, if I am a bean counter at a lender, and I can dump that property off so some investor at an inflated price instead of going through the legal hassle of foreclosure, it is a no brainer. Even if I have to sit on the property for months, so what if it is not performing. I get to dump it. No sale, no broker, no commission, no market, no foreclosure proceeding, no trustee sale. The best thing is that everything is backed by our tax dollars. Isn’t that sweet?

Really now, this is possibly the most manipulated market we have ever experienced and it should be painfully obvious to people.

As to the number of homes that are actually bank owned and not yet on the market, the same holds true but yes most of them are coming on the market. Prices are sufficiently low so that those to will sell quickly.

At least for the moment, at least here in San Diego, the effort of constraint combined with low interest rates and price reductions has been IMO wildly successful. Fundamentally this is in no way what a bottom should look like and I know you are not claiming a bottom.

[SD Realtor]

“JTR asked me to stop posting on his blog when I said, he was selling optimism. SDR thinks that the RE market is on fire right now. That implies there are a lot of people who are optimistic about the future and enough of them have money to spend.”

The market is on fire right now. I should have added the caviot with the exception of high end but if you talk to any serious buyer who has submitted offers on homes, I bet you they will express EXTREME frustration of multiple bids, getting outbid, and HORRENDOUS inventory selection. I also feel that active pending ratios in many of the zip codes we study are attrocious and more then half of any short sales you see already have offers on them. I am not saying they will close, I am saying they have offers on them. So yes I do believe that many zips are on fire.

As to optimism about the future I am not sure I would assume that. I would simply say that people have found a home they want to buy rather then rent. In fact most all of the buyers (at least those who I have been working with) feel that the economy is going to continue to sputter and unemployment will grow and that the housing market will continue to depreciate. They have the resources to outlast it, and they have made the choice to buy. Trying to figure out why people are buying is close to an exercise in futility.

UR, tracking the trust deeds shows that there is a significant reduction in the number of homes going to foreclosure. Whether that is happening because of the legislative efforts by the government, or because of staffing problems at the lenders themselves, or because of sheer lack of motivation makes no difference. All I know is, if I am a bean counter at a lender, and I can dump that property off so some investor at an inflated price instead of going through the legal hassle of foreclosure, it is a no brainer. Even if I have to sit on the property for months, so what if it is not performing. I get to dump it. No sale, no broker, no commission, no market, no foreclosure proceeding, no trustee sale. The best thing is that everything is backed by our tax dollars. Isn’t that sweet?

Really now, this is possibly the most manipulated market we have ever experienced and it should be painfully obvious to people.

As to the number of homes that are actually bank owned and not yet on the market, the same holds true but yes most of them are coming on the market. Prices are sufficiently low so that those to will sell quickly.

At least for the moment, at least here in San Diego, the effort of constraint combined with low interest rates and price reductions has been IMO wildly successful. Fundamentally this is in no way what a bottom should look like and I know you are not claiming a bottom.

[SD Realtor]

“JTR asked me to stop posting on his blog when I said, he was selling optimism. SDR thinks that the RE market is on fire right now. That implies there are a lot of people who are optimistic about the future and enough of them have money to spend.”

The market is on fire right now. I should have added the caviot with the exception of high end but if you talk to any serious buyer who has submitted offers on homes, I bet you they will express EXTREME frustration of multiple bids, getting outbid, and HORRENDOUS inventory selection. I also feel that active pending ratios in many of the zip codes we study are attrocious and more then half of any short sales you see already have offers on them. I am not saying they will close, I am saying they have offers on them. So yes I do believe that many zips are on fire.

As to optimism about the future I am not sure I would assume that. I would simply say that people have found a home they want to buy rather then rent. In fact most all of the buyers (at least those who I have been working with) feel that the economy is going to continue to sputter and unemployment will grow and that the housing market will continue to depreciate. They have the resources to outlast it, and they have made the choice to buy. Trying to figure out why people are buying is close to an exercise in futility.

UR, tracking the trust deeds shows that there is a significant reduction in the number of homes going to foreclosure. Whether that is happening because of the legislative efforts by the government, or because of staffing problems at the lenders themselves, or because of sheer lack of motivation makes no difference. All I know is, if I am a bean counter at a lender, and I can dump that property off so some investor at an inflated price instead of going through the legal hassle of foreclosure, it is a no brainer. Even if I have to sit on the property for months, so what if it is not performing. I get to dump it. No sale, no broker, no commission, no market, no foreclosure proceeding, no trustee sale. The best thing is that everything is backed by our tax dollars. Isn’t that sweet?

Really now, this is possibly the most manipulated market we have ever experienced and it should be painfully obvious to people.

As to the number of homes that are actually bank owned and not yet on the market, the same holds true but yes most of them are coming on the market. Prices are sufficiently low so that those to will sell quickly.

At least for the moment, at least here in San Diego, the effort of constraint combined with low interest rates and price reductions has been IMO wildly successful. Fundamentally this is in no way what a bottom should look like and I know you are not claiming a bottom.

[Author]

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