Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Is it just me?
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April 20, 2009 at 11:47 AM #385192April 20, 2009 at 12:21 PM #384552ucodegenParticipant
I am hearing people stating that the RE market is ‘on fire’ right now, but I just don’t see that. I know my sample size is comparatively small. An example is a house near me. It is off over 30% from market price.. many lookers, no offers.
As for inflation. Inflation involves more than just M0 (currency). You really want to look at M3 + value of leverage-able assets (ie. RE). We just took a huge hit in the price of homes (shutting down the home ATM). The drop in dollar valuation of near-liquid and liquid assets is highly deflationary. The current ‘printing’ going on is offsetting some of the loss at M3.. but not all.
Here is another factoid. Many people think that the TARP funds are a give away. Take a look at the earnings report from BofA. They just paid the gov $402Mil of interest on the $45B of TARP funds it received. I don’t think my calcs are wrong.. It comes out to something near a 3.6% interest rate. That is definitely not free money, thought it is cheap. Interesting point is that it is costing the fed about 2.5% or less in terms of paying out on the treasury bills were sold to get the TARP money.
April 20, 2009 at 12:21 PM #384824ucodegenParticipantI am hearing people stating that the RE market is ‘on fire’ right now, but I just don’t see that. I know my sample size is comparatively small. An example is a house near me. It is off over 30% from market price.. many lookers, no offers.
As for inflation. Inflation involves more than just M0 (currency). You really want to look at M3 + value of leverage-able assets (ie. RE). We just took a huge hit in the price of homes (shutting down the home ATM). The drop in dollar valuation of near-liquid and liquid assets is highly deflationary. The current ‘printing’ going on is offsetting some of the loss at M3.. but not all.
Here is another factoid. Many people think that the TARP funds are a give away. Take a look at the earnings report from BofA. They just paid the gov $402Mil of interest on the $45B of TARP funds it received. I don’t think my calcs are wrong.. It comes out to something near a 3.6% interest rate. That is definitely not free money, thought it is cheap. Interesting point is that it is costing the fed about 2.5% or less in terms of paying out on the treasury bills were sold to get the TARP money.
April 20, 2009 at 12:21 PM #385021ucodegenParticipantI am hearing people stating that the RE market is ‘on fire’ right now, but I just don’t see that. I know my sample size is comparatively small. An example is a house near me. It is off over 30% from market price.. many lookers, no offers.
As for inflation. Inflation involves more than just M0 (currency). You really want to look at M3 + value of leverage-able assets (ie. RE). We just took a huge hit in the price of homes (shutting down the home ATM). The drop in dollar valuation of near-liquid and liquid assets is highly deflationary. The current ‘printing’ going on is offsetting some of the loss at M3.. but not all.
Here is another factoid. Many people think that the TARP funds are a give away. Take a look at the earnings report from BofA. They just paid the gov $402Mil of interest on the $45B of TARP funds it received. I don’t think my calcs are wrong.. It comes out to something near a 3.6% interest rate. That is definitely not free money, thought it is cheap. Interesting point is that it is costing the fed about 2.5% or less in terms of paying out on the treasury bills were sold to get the TARP money.
April 20, 2009 at 12:21 PM #385069ucodegenParticipantI am hearing people stating that the RE market is ‘on fire’ right now, but I just don’t see that. I know my sample size is comparatively small. An example is a house near me. It is off over 30% from market price.. many lookers, no offers.
As for inflation. Inflation involves more than just M0 (currency). You really want to look at M3 + value of leverage-able assets (ie. RE). We just took a huge hit in the price of homes (shutting down the home ATM). The drop in dollar valuation of near-liquid and liquid assets is highly deflationary. The current ‘printing’ going on is offsetting some of the loss at M3.. but not all.
Here is another factoid. Many people think that the TARP funds are a give away. Take a look at the earnings report from BofA. They just paid the gov $402Mil of interest on the $45B of TARP funds it received. I don’t think my calcs are wrong.. It comes out to something near a 3.6% interest rate. That is definitely not free money, thought it is cheap. Interesting point is that it is costing the fed about 2.5% or less in terms of paying out on the treasury bills were sold to get the TARP money.
April 20, 2009 at 12:21 PM #385207ucodegenParticipantI am hearing people stating that the RE market is ‘on fire’ right now, but I just don’t see that. I know my sample size is comparatively small. An example is a house near me. It is off over 30% from market price.. many lookers, no offers.
As for inflation. Inflation involves more than just M0 (currency). You really want to look at M3 + value of leverage-able assets (ie. RE). We just took a huge hit in the price of homes (shutting down the home ATM). The drop in dollar valuation of near-liquid and liquid assets is highly deflationary. The current ‘printing’ going on is offsetting some of the loss at M3.. but not all.
Here is another factoid. Many people think that the TARP funds are a give away. Take a look at the earnings report from BofA. They just paid the gov $402Mil of interest on the $45B of TARP funds it received. I don’t think my calcs are wrong.. It comes out to something near a 3.6% interest rate. That is definitely not free money, thought it is cheap. Interesting point is that it is costing the fed about 2.5% or less in terms of paying out on the treasury bills were sold to get the TARP money.
April 20, 2009 at 12:37 PM #384572patientrenterParticipant[quote=cv2][quote=SD Realtor]
All I know is, if I am a bean counter at a lender, and I can dump that property off so some investor at an inflated price instead of going through the legal hassle of foreclosure, it is a no brainer. Even if I have to sit on the property for months, so what if it is not performing. I get to dump it. No sale, no broker, no commission, no market, no foreclosure proceeding, no trustee sale. The best thing is that everything is backed by our tax dollars. Isn’t that sweet?
[/quote]Hi SDR, I am missing something here. How can they dump it and to who? The only thing I can think of is that banks can use those loans as col laterals to get cash from FED. Is this what you are referring to?
Thanks!
[/quote]I won’t attempt to steal SDR’s thunder, but I think PPIP is a taste of what’s to come. If banks can’t sell REOs at inflated prices on the open market, then govt subsidies will be created to allow them to sell to some investors at inflated prices. It’s the PPIP model for MBSs translated to REOs.
April 20, 2009 at 12:37 PM #384844patientrenterParticipant[quote=cv2][quote=SD Realtor]
All I know is, if I am a bean counter at a lender, and I can dump that property off so some investor at an inflated price instead of going through the legal hassle of foreclosure, it is a no brainer. Even if I have to sit on the property for months, so what if it is not performing. I get to dump it. No sale, no broker, no commission, no market, no foreclosure proceeding, no trustee sale. The best thing is that everything is backed by our tax dollars. Isn’t that sweet?
[/quote]Hi SDR, I am missing something here. How can they dump it and to who? The only thing I can think of is that banks can use those loans as col laterals to get cash from FED. Is this what you are referring to?
Thanks!
[/quote]I won’t attempt to steal SDR’s thunder, but I think PPIP is a taste of what’s to come. If banks can’t sell REOs at inflated prices on the open market, then govt subsidies will be created to allow them to sell to some investors at inflated prices. It’s the PPIP model for MBSs translated to REOs.
April 20, 2009 at 12:37 PM #385041patientrenterParticipant[quote=cv2][quote=SD Realtor]
All I know is, if I am a bean counter at a lender, and I can dump that property off so some investor at an inflated price instead of going through the legal hassle of foreclosure, it is a no brainer. Even if I have to sit on the property for months, so what if it is not performing. I get to dump it. No sale, no broker, no commission, no market, no foreclosure proceeding, no trustee sale. The best thing is that everything is backed by our tax dollars. Isn’t that sweet?
[/quote]Hi SDR, I am missing something here. How can they dump it and to who? The only thing I can think of is that banks can use those loans as col laterals to get cash from FED. Is this what you are referring to?
Thanks!
[/quote]I won’t attempt to steal SDR’s thunder, but I think PPIP is a taste of what’s to come. If banks can’t sell REOs at inflated prices on the open market, then govt subsidies will be created to allow them to sell to some investors at inflated prices. It’s the PPIP model for MBSs translated to REOs.
April 20, 2009 at 12:37 PM #385089patientrenterParticipant[quote=cv2][quote=SD Realtor]
All I know is, if I am a bean counter at a lender, and I can dump that property off so some investor at an inflated price instead of going through the legal hassle of foreclosure, it is a no brainer. Even if I have to sit on the property for months, so what if it is not performing. I get to dump it. No sale, no broker, no commission, no market, no foreclosure proceeding, no trustee sale. The best thing is that everything is backed by our tax dollars. Isn’t that sweet?
[/quote]Hi SDR, I am missing something here. How can they dump it and to who? The only thing I can think of is that banks can use those loans as col laterals to get cash from FED. Is this what you are referring to?
Thanks!
[/quote]I won’t attempt to steal SDR’s thunder, but I think PPIP is a taste of what’s to come. If banks can’t sell REOs at inflated prices on the open market, then govt subsidies will be created to allow them to sell to some investors at inflated prices. It’s the PPIP model for MBSs translated to REOs.
April 20, 2009 at 12:37 PM #385227patientrenterParticipant[quote=cv2][quote=SD Realtor]
All I know is, if I am a bean counter at a lender, and I can dump that property off so some investor at an inflated price instead of going through the legal hassle of foreclosure, it is a no brainer. Even if I have to sit on the property for months, so what if it is not performing. I get to dump it. No sale, no broker, no commission, no market, no foreclosure proceeding, no trustee sale. The best thing is that everything is backed by our tax dollars. Isn’t that sweet?
[/quote]Hi SDR, I am missing something here. How can they dump it and to who? The only thing I can think of is that banks can use those loans as col laterals to get cash from FED. Is this what you are referring to?
Thanks!
[/quote]I won’t attempt to steal SDR’s thunder, but I think PPIP is a taste of what’s to come. If banks can’t sell REOs at inflated prices on the open market, then govt subsidies will be created to allow them to sell to some investors at inflated prices. It’s the PPIP model for MBSs translated to REOs.
April 20, 2009 at 12:42 PM #384576sdrealtorParticipantQuote of the Day
“Really now, this is possibly the most manipulated market we have ever experienced and it should be painfully obvious to people.”
And it should come as no surprise to any of you. The only way out is inflation. Inflation takes time to set in. Time is what they are buying. This manipulation will go one for years. Dont expect a free market or them to allow free market forces to reign the day. It is not fun trying to buy real estate today. It wont be when its your turn either. For better or worse, its the way it is and the way its gonna be. I gave up trying to warn you folks on a daily basis several months ago……..
April 20, 2009 at 12:42 PM #384849sdrealtorParticipantQuote of the Day
“Really now, this is possibly the most manipulated market we have ever experienced and it should be painfully obvious to people.”
And it should come as no surprise to any of you. The only way out is inflation. Inflation takes time to set in. Time is what they are buying. This manipulation will go one for years. Dont expect a free market or them to allow free market forces to reign the day. It is not fun trying to buy real estate today. It wont be when its your turn either. For better or worse, its the way it is and the way its gonna be. I gave up trying to warn you folks on a daily basis several months ago……..
April 20, 2009 at 12:42 PM #385046sdrealtorParticipantQuote of the Day
“Really now, this is possibly the most manipulated market we have ever experienced and it should be painfully obvious to people.”
And it should come as no surprise to any of you. The only way out is inflation. Inflation takes time to set in. Time is what they are buying. This manipulation will go one for years. Dont expect a free market or them to allow free market forces to reign the day. It is not fun trying to buy real estate today. It wont be when its your turn either. For better or worse, its the way it is and the way its gonna be. I gave up trying to warn you folks on a daily basis several months ago……..
April 20, 2009 at 12:42 PM #385094sdrealtorParticipantQuote of the Day
“Really now, this is possibly the most manipulated market we have ever experienced and it should be painfully obvious to people.”
And it should come as no surprise to any of you. The only way out is inflation. Inflation takes time to set in. Time is what they are buying. This manipulation will go one for years. Dont expect a free market or them to allow free market forces to reign the day. It is not fun trying to buy real estate today. It wont be when its your turn either. For better or worse, its the way it is and the way its gonna be. I gave up trying to warn you folks on a daily basis several months ago……..
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