irrational fear?; spouse wants house…

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I would take the lower priced MLS listings with a Grain of salt in Murrieta (or even French Valley),

The good ones almost always have multiple bids the first day they hit the market these days , most way over the asking price.

But good luck, I don’t think the prices are going to start running away anytime soon, but I would not be Surprised to wake up one day and see all the good Foreclosures gone, and the asking prices jump maybe 25-50K (just my guess).

To each their own and good luck again.

[peterb]

Prices are supply/demand driven. If no one wants houses, the prices will keep moving down. It’s this simple. Higher unemployment will grind down every market. The further from job markets, the far worse it will be. Homes in Temecula for $100K, why not? Lower rents, of course.
This is like contemplating the value of stock based on the last two years of its P/E. Not very useful if the new level of earnings is going to be so much lower that the price has to come a lot further down to match the acceptable ratio. Current rents and ratio’s are based on things that people tend to think are static, and they are not static. Will wages come down? I think we’re going to find out the hard way in the next couple of years. But if they do, that will cause all these ratio’s as to rent vs. buying and a home costing 4 times the HH income to be reset to a lower level. Now add the psychological pressure of possible job loss or need to relocate… See what unemployment does to the housing market. Just wait and see. I hope I’m wrong, but this is looking the mother of all melt-downs thus far. So I will now take off my tin foil hat. But this is not out of the realm of possible.

[peterb]

Prices are supply/demand driven. If no one wants houses, the prices will keep moving down. It’s this simple. Higher unemployment will grind down every market. The further from job markets, the far worse it will be. Homes in Temecula for $100K, why not? Lower rents, of course.
This is like contemplating the value of stock based on the last two years of its P/E. Not very useful if the new level of earnings is going to be so much lower that the price has to come a lot further down to match the acceptable ratio. Current rents and ratio’s are based on things that people tend to think are static, and they are not static. Will wages come down? I think we’re going to find out the hard way in the next couple of years. But if they do, that will cause all these ratio’s as to rent vs. buying and a home costing 4 times the HH income to be reset to a lower level. Now add the psychological pressure of possible job loss or need to relocate… See what unemployment does to the housing market. Just wait and see. I hope I’m wrong, but this is looking the mother of all melt-downs thus far. So I will now take off my tin foil hat. But this is not out of the realm of possible.

[peterb]

Prices are supply/demand driven. If no one wants houses, the prices will keep moving down. It’s this simple. Higher unemployment will grind down every market. The further from job markets, the far worse it will be. Homes in Temecula for $100K, why not? Lower rents, of course.
This is like contemplating the value of stock based on the last two years of its P/E. Not very useful if the new level of earnings is going to be so much lower that the price has to come a lot further down to match the acceptable ratio. Current rents and ratio’s are based on things that people tend to think are static, and they are not static. Will wages come down? I think we’re going to find out the hard way in the next couple of years. But if they do, that will cause all these ratio’s as to rent vs. buying and a home costing 4 times the HH income to be reset to a lower level. Now add the psychological pressure of possible job loss or need to relocate… See what unemployment does to the housing market. Just wait and see. I hope I’m wrong, but this is looking the mother of all melt-downs thus far. So I will now take off my tin foil hat. But this is not out of the realm of possible.

[peterb]

Prices are supply/demand driven. If no one wants houses, the prices will keep moving down. It’s this simple. Higher unemployment will grind down every market. The further from job markets, the far worse it will be. Homes in Temecula for $100K, why not? Lower rents, of course.
This is like contemplating the value of stock based on the last two years of its P/E. Not very useful if the new level of earnings is going to be so much lower that the price has to come a lot further down to match the acceptable ratio. Current rents and ratio’s are based on things that people tend to think are static, and they are not static. Will wages come down? I think we’re going to find out the hard way in the next couple of years. But if they do, that will cause all these ratio’s as to rent vs. buying and a home costing 4 times the HH income to be reset to a lower level. Now add the psychological pressure of possible job loss or need to relocate… See what unemployment does to the housing market. Just wait and see. I hope I’m wrong, but this is looking the mother of all melt-downs thus far. So I will now take off my tin foil hat. But this is not out of the realm of possible.

[peterb]

Prices are supply/demand driven. If no one wants houses, the prices will keep moving down. It’s this simple. Higher unemployment will grind down every market. The further from job markets, the far worse it will be. Homes in Temecula for $100K, why not? Lower rents, of course.
This is like contemplating the value of stock based on the last two years of its P/E. Not very useful if the new level of earnings is going to be so much lower that the price has to come a lot further down to match the acceptable ratio. Current rents and ratio’s are based on things that people tend to think are static, and they are not static. Will wages come down? I think we’re going to find out the hard way in the next couple of years. But if they do, that will cause all these ratio’s as to rent vs. buying and a home costing 4 times the HH income to be reset to a lower level. Now add the psychological pressure of possible job loss or need to relocate… See what unemployment does to the housing market. Just wait and see. I hope I’m wrong, but this is looking the mother of all melt-downs thus far. So I will now take off my tin foil hat. But this is not out of the realm of possible.

[scaredyclassic]

see, this is exactly what goes through my head. past performance does not predict future results. people talk about cycles in real estate, etc etc., what goes up must come down and then up again, but possibly, it could be radically different. I think the answer will become clearer in a year or so, either the hemorrhaging will slow, or it won’t. Maybe all the good repos will be gone, but, somehow, i doubt it will all clear out in 09. On balance, it just seems the risks outweigh the benefits of buying in the next 12 months.

[scaredyclassic]

see, this is exactly what goes through my head. past performance does not predict future results. people talk about cycles in real estate, etc etc., what goes up must come down and then up again, but possibly, it could be radically different. I think the answer will become clearer in a year or so, either the hemorrhaging will slow, or it won’t. Maybe all the good repos will be gone, but, somehow, i doubt it will all clear out in 09. On balance, it just seems the risks outweigh the benefits of buying in the next 12 months.

[scaredyclassic]

see, this is exactly what goes through my head. past performance does not predict future results. people talk about cycles in real estate, etc etc., what goes up must come down and then up again, but possibly, it could be radically different. I think the answer will become clearer in a year or so, either the hemorrhaging will slow, or it won’t. Maybe all the good repos will be gone, but, somehow, i doubt it will all clear out in 09. On balance, it just seems the risks outweigh the benefits of buying in the next 12 months.

[scaredyclassic]

see, this is exactly what goes through my head. past performance does not predict future results. people talk about cycles in real estate, etc etc., what goes up must come down and then up again, but possibly, it could be radically different. I think the answer will become clearer in a year or so, either the hemorrhaging will slow, or it won’t. Maybe all the good repos will be gone, but, somehow, i doubt it will all clear out in 09. On balance, it just seems the risks outweigh the benefits of buying in the next 12 months.

[scaredyclassic]

see, this is exactly what goes through my head. past performance does not predict future results. people talk about cycles in real estate, etc etc., what goes up must come down and then up again, but possibly, it could be radically different. I think the answer will become clearer in a year or so, either the hemorrhaging will slow, or it won’t. Maybe all the good repos will be gone, but, somehow, i doubt it will all clear out in 09. On balance, it just seems the risks outweigh the benefits of buying in the next 12 months.

[jetonejet]

….. Will it go down to 100k? I seriously doubt it. So the downside risk in my opinion is 10-20k (10%)….

Why have any downside risk if you help it? I would wait until prices at LEAST stabilize if not start appreciating.

FACT: Prices are still declining…

REPEAT FACT: Prices are still declining…

It makes 0 sense to buy a home in a declining housing market. Ask anyone with a brain.

As far as Temecula and 100K, I bought my Murietta house at $150K in 1999, and I would submit to you that prices will be back to those levels within the next 2 years. Why, because like TG said, there are no jobs in the area and housing is all about supply and demand. Temecula and Murrieta are over built, meaning too much supply. If you can buy near your work for $200 to $299K, why the hell would you pay any where near that to drive to SD or LA with the “951 croud, AKA people of the dirt. I use to be one of them, and you could’nt pay me to move back there vs SD.

[jetonejet]

….. Will it go down to 100k? I seriously doubt it. So the downside risk in my opinion is 10-20k (10%)….

Why have any downside risk if you help it? I would wait until prices at LEAST stabilize if not start appreciating.

FACT: Prices are still declining…

REPEAT FACT: Prices are still declining…

It makes 0 sense to buy a home in a declining housing market. Ask anyone with a brain.

As far as Temecula and 100K, I bought my Murietta house at $150K in 1999, and I would submit to you that prices will be back to those levels within the next 2 years. Why, because like TG said, there are no jobs in the area and housing is all about supply and demand. Temecula and Murrieta are over built, meaning too much supply. If you can buy near your work for $200 to $299K, why the hell would you pay any where near that to drive to SD or LA with the “951 croud, AKA people of the dirt. I use to be one of them, and you could’nt pay me to move back there vs SD.

[jetonejet]

….. Will it go down to 100k? I seriously doubt it. So the downside risk in my opinion is 10-20k (10%)….

Why have any downside risk if you help it? I would wait until prices at LEAST stabilize if not start appreciating.

FACT: Prices are still declining…

REPEAT FACT: Prices are still declining…

It makes 0 sense to buy a home in a declining housing market. Ask anyone with a brain.

As far as Temecula and 100K, I bought my Murietta house at $150K in 1999, and I would submit to you that prices will be back to those levels within the next 2 years. Why, because like TG said, there are no jobs in the area and housing is all about supply and demand. Temecula and Murrieta are over built, meaning too much supply. If you can buy near your work for $200 to $299K, why the hell would you pay any where near that to drive to SD or LA with the “951 croud, AKA people of the dirt. I use to be one of them, and you could’nt pay me to move back there vs SD.

[jetonejet]

….. Will it go down to 100k? I seriously doubt it. So the downside risk in my opinion is 10-20k (10%)….

Why have any downside risk if you help it? I would wait until prices at LEAST stabilize if not start appreciating.

FACT: Prices are still declining…

REPEAT FACT: Prices are still declining…

It makes 0 sense to buy a home in a declining housing market. Ask anyone with a brain.

As far as Temecula and 100K, I bought my Murietta house at $150K in 1999, and I would submit to you that prices will be back to those levels within the next 2 years. Why, because like TG said, there are no jobs in the area and housing is all about supply and demand. Temecula and Murrieta are over built, meaning too much supply. If you can buy near your work for $200 to $299K, why the hell would you pay any where near that to drive to SD or LA with the “951 croud, AKA people of the dirt. I use to be one of them, and you could’nt pay me to move back there vs SD.

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