irrational fear?; spouse wants house…

[ralphfurley]

TG, I’ve been keeping a fairly close eye on Murrieta/Temecula, and it looks like Murrieta is dropping much faster. Maybe because it is closer to the rest of the French Valley(?).

Anyhoo, it looked like Temecula was holding it’s value more than Murrieta. I thought they might trend downward at the same rate. But it doesn’t look like it when you can get a house for $77-90/sq.ft in Murrieta these days.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Murrieta/30038-COUPLES-Ave-92562/home/8160563

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Murrieta/36645-Covington-Cir-92563/home/8160331

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Murrieta/38803-Vista-Rock-Dr-92563/unit-1/home/17363668

Any idea why Murrieta is tanking much faster than Temecula? K-12 education maybe? Less foreclosures? And do you think Murrieta will continue to drop faster as Temecula drops?

[sd_bear]

The way I see it and often explain it to people without having to go into great detail is to just list the factors involved in house prices and see what they indicate.

1) Economy – We are in VERY poor shape
2) Unemployment – Going higher based on every account
3) Inventory – Near record levels
4) Interest rates – getting worse
5) Foreclosures – getting much worse

Every single factor here points to downward pressure on home prices. When several of these turn around (and it will NOT happen overnight) then it could be a good time to jump into the market.

[sd_bear]

The way I see it and often explain it to people without having to go into great detail is to just list the factors involved in house prices and see what they indicate.

1) Economy – We are in VERY poor shape
2) Unemployment – Going higher based on every account
3) Inventory – Near record levels
4) Interest rates – getting worse
5) Foreclosures – getting much worse

Every single factor here points to downward pressure on home prices. When several of these turn around (and it will NOT happen overnight) then it could be a good time to jump into the market.

[sd_bear]

The way I see it and often explain it to people without having to go into great detail is to just list the factors involved in house prices and see what they indicate.

1) Economy – We are in VERY poor shape
2) Unemployment – Going higher based on every account
3) Inventory – Near record levels
4) Interest rates – getting worse
5) Foreclosures – getting much worse

Every single factor here points to downward pressure on home prices. When several of these turn around (and it will NOT happen overnight) then it could be a good time to jump into the market.

[sd_bear]

The way I see it and often explain it to people without having to go into great detail is to just list the factors involved in house prices and see what they indicate.

1) Economy – We are in VERY poor shape
2) Unemployment – Going higher based on every account
3) Inventory – Near record levels
4) Interest rates – getting worse
5) Foreclosures – getting much worse

Every single factor here points to downward pressure on home prices. When several of these turn around (and it will NOT happen overnight) then it could be a good time to jump into the market.

[sd_bear]

The way I see it and often explain it to people without having to go into great detail is to just list the factors involved in house prices and see what they indicate.

1) Economy – We are in VERY poor shape
2) Unemployment – Going higher based on every account
3) Inventory – Near record levels
4) Interest rates – getting worse
5) Foreclosures – getting much worse

Every single factor here points to downward pressure on home prices. When several of these turn around (and it will NOT happen overnight) then it could be a good time to jump into the market.

[temeculaguy]

Responses in reverse order.

sdbear, I agree with the pressures but you need to address my argument that those are already priced in, and $4 gas that has become $2.90 gas and soon $2 gas has a reverse effect on exurbs, it softens the blow. Foreclosures aren’t getting worse, our foreclosures already peaked, I’ve tracked them daily for 2 years, I need 30 more days to figure out the effects of the state bill that delayed foreclosures before being certain on that.

ralphfurley, good finds, but prices in the valley have always declined as you travel North, a few percent per mile. Schools are great in Murrieta, crime is low, that isn’t the reason. More commuters work South than North, traffic blows on the 215, you get closer to the crappy areas (elsinore, perris, hemet) the further north you go and it get hotter. I like murrieta, at those prices it’s a good deal (but they are shorts so it can be misleading). It wont tank percentage wise any differen than temec, it will just always be a little cheaper and wildomar or french will be cheaper than murrieta and hemet/San jacinto/Elsinore cheaper than those, it’s just the way it is.

The pain train moves south, I used complain that it was frustrating me that it was in murrieta and not temec but eventually it caught up, each subsequent wave, takes a little time but eventually it makes its way south. But it will never be a tie.

scardeycat-you are correct with the strange pricing spread, that is the trouble with pricing customs on land, it is dfficult to figure out comps. Check the zoning, some of places wont allow chickens or have limits, most have an hoa you can contact. I know santiago and ranchitos allow horses but that may be it, i remember a publicized lawsuit with the hoa over a llama someone had. I wish i knew more but i am allergic to land so just check into it before shopping. Just decide you want to pay 300k and dont offer more, if that means waiting, then wait. If the same property for 350 and 500 exist, just visit the 350k and make offers of 300k, avoid the 500’s altogether. You also need to understand the whole water, sewer, private road, taxes, issues that can vary wildly with homes on land. It’s a game of chicken, the market will find you, just maybe not this week, hoping a 350k place will take 300k is reasonable and the average list to sale is 10% below list in our area, so i look at 350k as 320k right off the bat. Those 350k’s will be 300k or 320k at some point, but hoping they will be 175k or 200k isn’t reasonable at any point so if you can get a few acres and a nice house for 300k, I’m not going to talk you out of it, nor will i talk anyone out of $75 a square in murrieta.

[temeculaguy]

Responses in reverse order.

sdbear, I agree with the pressures but you need to address my argument that those are already priced in, and $4 gas that has become $2.90 gas and soon $2 gas has a reverse effect on exurbs, it softens the blow. Foreclosures aren’t getting worse, our foreclosures already peaked, I’ve tracked them daily for 2 years, I need 30 more days to figure out the effects of the state bill that delayed foreclosures before being certain on that.

ralphfurley, good finds, but prices in the valley have always declined as you travel North, a few percent per mile. Schools are great in Murrieta, crime is low, that isn’t the reason. More commuters work South than North, traffic blows on the 215, you get closer to the crappy areas (elsinore, perris, hemet) the further north you go and it get hotter. I like murrieta, at those prices it’s a good deal (but they are shorts so it can be misleading). It wont tank percentage wise any differen than temec, it will just always be a little cheaper and wildomar or french will be cheaper than murrieta and hemet/San jacinto/Elsinore cheaper than those, it’s just the way it is.

The pain train moves south, I used complain that it was frustrating me that it was in murrieta and not temec but eventually it caught up, each subsequent wave, takes a little time but eventually it makes its way south. But it will never be a tie.

scardeycat-you are correct with the strange pricing spread, that is the trouble with pricing customs on land, it is dfficult to figure out comps. Check the zoning, some of places wont allow chickens or have limits, most have an hoa you can contact. I know santiago and ranchitos allow horses but that may be it, i remember a publicized lawsuit with the hoa over a llama someone had. I wish i knew more but i am allergic to land so just check into it before shopping. Just decide you want to pay 300k and dont offer more, if that means waiting, then wait. If the same property for 350 and 500 exist, just visit the 350k and make offers of 300k, avoid the 500’s altogether. You also need to understand the whole water, sewer, private road, taxes, issues that can vary wildly with homes on land. It’s a game of chicken, the market will find you, just maybe not this week, hoping a 350k place will take 300k is reasonable and the average list to sale is 10% below list in our area, so i look at 350k as 320k right off the bat. Those 350k’s will be 300k or 320k at some point, but hoping they will be 175k or 200k isn’t reasonable at any point so if you can get a few acres and a nice house for 300k, I’m not going to talk you out of it, nor will i talk anyone out of $75 a square in murrieta.

[temeculaguy]

Responses in reverse order.

sdbear, I agree with the pressures but you need to address my argument that those are already priced in, and $4 gas that has become $2.90 gas and soon $2 gas has a reverse effect on exurbs, it softens the blow. Foreclosures aren’t getting worse, our foreclosures already peaked, I’ve tracked them daily for 2 years, I need 30 more days to figure out the effects of the state bill that delayed foreclosures before being certain on that.

ralphfurley, good finds, but prices in the valley have always declined as you travel North, a few percent per mile. Schools are great in Murrieta, crime is low, that isn’t the reason. More commuters work South than North, traffic blows on the 215, you get closer to the crappy areas (elsinore, perris, hemet) the further north you go and it get hotter. I like murrieta, at those prices it’s a good deal (but they are shorts so it can be misleading). It wont tank percentage wise any differen than temec, it will just always be a little cheaper and wildomar or french will be cheaper than murrieta and hemet/San jacinto/Elsinore cheaper than those, it’s just the way it is.

The pain train moves south, I used complain that it was frustrating me that it was in murrieta and not temec but eventually it caught up, each subsequent wave, takes a little time but eventually it makes its way south. But it will never be a tie.

scardeycat-you are correct with the strange pricing spread, that is the trouble with pricing customs on land, it is dfficult to figure out comps. Check the zoning, some of places wont allow chickens or have limits, most have an hoa you can contact. I know santiago and ranchitos allow horses but that may be it, i remember a publicized lawsuit with the hoa over a llama someone had. I wish i knew more but i am allergic to land so just check into it before shopping. Just decide you want to pay 300k and dont offer more, if that means waiting, then wait. If the same property for 350 and 500 exist, just visit the 350k and make offers of 300k, avoid the 500’s altogether. You also need to understand the whole water, sewer, private road, taxes, issues that can vary wildly with homes on land. It’s a game of chicken, the market will find you, just maybe not this week, hoping a 350k place will take 300k is reasonable and the average list to sale is 10% below list in our area, so i look at 350k as 320k right off the bat. Those 350k’s will be 300k or 320k at some point, but hoping they will be 175k or 200k isn’t reasonable at any point so if you can get a few acres and a nice house for 300k, I’m not going to talk you out of it, nor will i talk anyone out of $75 a square in murrieta.

[temeculaguy]

Responses in reverse order.

sdbear, I agree with the pressures but you need to address my argument that those are already priced in, and $4 gas that has become $2.90 gas and soon $2 gas has a reverse effect on exurbs, it softens the blow. Foreclosures aren’t getting worse, our foreclosures already peaked, I’ve tracked them daily for 2 years, I need 30 more days to figure out the effects of the state bill that delayed foreclosures before being certain on that.

ralphfurley, good finds, but prices in the valley have always declined as you travel North, a few percent per mile. Schools are great in Murrieta, crime is low, that isn’t the reason. More commuters work South than North, traffic blows on the 215, you get closer to the crappy areas (elsinore, perris, hemet) the further north you go and it get hotter. I like murrieta, at those prices it’s a good deal (but they are shorts so it can be misleading). It wont tank percentage wise any differen than temec, it will just always be a little cheaper and wildomar or french will be cheaper than murrieta and hemet/San jacinto/Elsinore cheaper than those, it’s just the way it is.

The pain train moves south, I used complain that it was frustrating me that it was in murrieta and not temec but eventually it caught up, each subsequent wave, takes a little time but eventually it makes its way south. But it will never be a tie.

scardeycat-you are correct with the strange pricing spread, that is the trouble with pricing customs on land, it is dfficult to figure out comps. Check the zoning, some of places wont allow chickens or have limits, most have an hoa you can contact. I know santiago and ranchitos allow horses but that may be it, i remember a publicized lawsuit with the hoa over a llama someone had. I wish i knew more but i am allergic to land so just check into it before shopping. Just decide you want to pay 300k and dont offer more, if that means waiting, then wait. If the same property for 350 and 500 exist, just visit the 350k and make offers of 300k, avoid the 500’s altogether. You also need to understand the whole water, sewer, private road, taxes, issues that can vary wildly with homes on land. It’s a game of chicken, the market will find you, just maybe not this week, hoping a 350k place will take 300k is reasonable and the average list to sale is 10% below list in our area, so i look at 350k as 320k right off the bat. Those 350k’s will be 300k or 320k at some point, but hoping they will be 175k or 200k isn’t reasonable at any point so if you can get a few acres and a nice house for 300k, I’m not going to talk you out of it, nor will i talk anyone out of $75 a square in murrieta.

[temeculaguy]

Responses in reverse order.

sdbear, I agree with the pressures but you need to address my argument that those are already priced in, and $4 gas that has become $2.90 gas and soon $2 gas has a reverse effect on exurbs, it softens the blow. Foreclosures aren’t getting worse, our foreclosures already peaked, I’ve tracked them daily for 2 years, I need 30 more days to figure out the effects of the state bill that delayed foreclosures before being certain on that.

ralphfurley, good finds, but prices in the valley have always declined as you travel North, a few percent per mile. Schools are great in Murrieta, crime is low, that isn’t the reason. More commuters work South than North, traffic blows on the 215, you get closer to the crappy areas (elsinore, perris, hemet) the further north you go and it get hotter. I like murrieta, at those prices it’s a good deal (but they are shorts so it can be misleading). It wont tank percentage wise any differen than temec, it will just always be a little cheaper and wildomar or french will be cheaper than murrieta and hemet/San jacinto/Elsinore cheaper than those, it’s just the way it is.

The pain train moves south, I used complain that it was frustrating me that it was in murrieta and not temec but eventually it caught up, each subsequent wave, takes a little time but eventually it makes its way south. But it will never be a tie.

scardeycat-you are correct with the strange pricing spread, that is the trouble with pricing customs on land, it is dfficult to figure out comps. Check the zoning, some of places wont allow chickens or have limits, most have an hoa you can contact. I know santiago and ranchitos allow horses but that may be it, i remember a publicized lawsuit with the hoa over a llama someone had. I wish i knew more but i am allergic to land so just check into it before shopping. Just decide you want to pay 300k and dont offer more, if that means waiting, then wait. If the same property for 350 and 500 exist, just visit the 350k and make offers of 300k, avoid the 500’s altogether. You also need to understand the whole water, sewer, private road, taxes, issues that can vary wildly with homes on land. It’s a game of chicken, the market will find you, just maybe not this week, hoping a 350k place will take 300k is reasonable and the average list to sale is 10% below list in our area, so i look at 350k as 320k right off the bat. Those 350k’s will be 300k or 320k at some point, but hoping they will be 175k or 200k isn’t reasonable at any point so if you can get a few acres and a nice house for 300k, I’m not going to talk you out of it, nor will i talk anyone out of $75 a square in murrieta.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I would take the lower priced MLS listings with a Grain of salt in Murrieta (or even French Valley),

The good ones almost always have multiple bids the first day they hit the market these days , most way over the asking price.

But good luck, I don’t think the prices are going to start running away anytime soon, but I would not be Surprised to wake up one day and see all the good Foreclosures gone, and the asking prices jump maybe 25-50K (just my guess).

To each their own and good luck again.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I would take the lower priced MLS listings with a Grain of salt in Murrieta (or even French Valley),

The good ones almost always have multiple bids the first day they hit the market these days , most way over the asking price.

But good luck, I don’t think the prices are going to start running away anytime soon, but I would not be Surprised to wake up one day and see all the good Foreclosures gone, and the asking prices jump maybe 25-50K (just my guess).

To each their own and good luck again.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I would take the lower priced MLS listings with a Grain of salt in Murrieta (or even French Valley),

The good ones almost always have multiple bids the first day they hit the market these days , most way over the asking price.

But good luck, I don’t think the prices are going to start running away anytime soon, but I would not be Surprised to wake up one day and see all the good Foreclosures gone, and the asking prices jump maybe 25-50K (just my guess).

To each their own and good luck again.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I would take the lower priced MLS listings with a Grain of salt in Murrieta (or even French Valley),

The good ones almost always have multiple bids the first day they hit the market these days , most way over the asking price.

But good luck, I don’t think the prices are going to start running away anytime soon, but I would not be Surprised to wake up one day and see all the good Foreclosures gone, and the asking prices jump maybe 25-50K (just my guess).

To each their own and good luck again.

[Author]

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