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jetonejet.
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October 28, 2008 at 12:36 PM #294623October 28, 2008 at 3:54 PM #294374
zzz
Participantpeterb, historically what is the correlation with each percentage increase in unemployment and those that move out of SD? i would imagine there are some people who a. get a roommate b. move in with local parents c. ride it out if they have savings, but i’m sure a high percentage take a job elsewhere if they can get it or relocate because they cannot afford rent + bills on unemployment.
i think if unemployment picks up steam here in SD, the psychology of not wanting to be tied down to a mortgage will kick in as well EVEN if you can be cash flow positive or break even on buy vs rent. just because you have a job now doesn’t mean you will tomorrow.
October 28, 2008 at 3:54 PM #294706Participantpeterb, historically what is the correlation with each percentage increase in unemployment and those that move out of SD? i would imagine there are some people who a. get a roommate b. move in with local parents c. ride it out if they have savings, but i’m sure a high percentage take a job elsewhere if they can get it or relocate because they cannot afford rent + bills on unemployment.
i think if unemployment picks up steam here in SD, the psychology of not wanting to be tied down to a mortgage will kick in as well EVEN if you can be cash flow positive or break even on buy vs rent. just because you have a job now doesn’t mean you will tomorrow.
October 28, 2008 at 3:54 PM #294729Participantpeterb, historically what is the correlation with each percentage increase in unemployment and those that move out of SD? i would imagine there are some people who a. get a roommate b. move in with local parents c. ride it out if they have savings, but i’m sure a high percentage take a job elsewhere if they can get it or relocate because they cannot afford rent + bills on unemployment.
i think if unemployment picks up steam here in SD, the psychology of not wanting to be tied down to a mortgage will kick in as well EVEN if you can be cash flow positive or break even on buy vs rent. just because you have a job now doesn’t mean you will tomorrow.
October 28, 2008 at 3:54 PM #294740Participantpeterb, historically what is the correlation with each percentage increase in unemployment and those that move out of SD? i would imagine there are some people who a. get a roommate b. move in with local parents c. ride it out if they have savings, but i’m sure a high percentage take a job elsewhere if they can get it or relocate because they cannot afford rent + bills on unemployment.
i think if unemployment picks up steam here in SD, the psychology of not wanting to be tied down to a mortgage will kick in as well EVEN if you can be cash flow positive or break even on buy vs rent. just because you have a job now doesn’t mean you will tomorrow.
October 28, 2008 at 3:54 PM #294779Participantpeterb, historically what is the correlation with each percentage increase in unemployment and those that move out of SD? i would imagine there are some people who a. get a roommate b. move in with local parents c. ride it out if they have savings, but i’m sure a high percentage take a job elsewhere if they can get it or relocate because they cannot afford rent + bills on unemployment.
i think if unemployment picks up steam here in SD, the psychology of not wanting to be tied down to a mortgage will kick in as well EVEN if you can be cash flow positive or break even on buy vs rent. just because you have a job now doesn’t mean you will tomorrow.
October 28, 2008 at 4:10 PM #294394peterb
Participantzzz, I lived through the early 1980’s recession and I was a RE investor/participant in the early 1990’s recession. And that’s exactly what happened. Even when many places could be purchased for cashflow positive rents, the fear of job loss and/or job relocation trumped it. I believe we may well see this again. Imagine having a rental where if you get one or two months of non-occupancy, you have to cover the payments and you’ve lost your job! So now, you’ve got your own mortgage as well as the mortgage on your rental to cover. Scary scenario!
I cant remember the exact correlation but it’s a curve that’s rather steep. I lost the data about a year ago. But both Carlos Royal and Bruce Norris have very good data on this. They’re both pretty well known local RE investors.Many people on this site have not lived through this, so it’s hard for them to understand how easily this can actually happen. But it can. Unemployment is a RE killer. The facts for this are overwhelmingly strong.
October 28, 2008 at 4:10 PM #294726Participantzzz, I lived through the early 1980’s recession and I was a RE investor/participant in the early 1990’s recession. And that’s exactly what happened. Even when many places could be purchased for cashflow positive rents, the fear of job loss and/or job relocation trumped it. I believe we may well see this again. Imagine having a rental where if you get one or two months of non-occupancy, you have to cover the payments and you’ve lost your job! So now, you’ve got your own mortgage as well as the mortgage on your rental to cover. Scary scenario!
I cant remember the exact correlation but it’s a curve that’s rather steep. I lost the data about a year ago. But both Carlos Royal and Bruce Norris have very good data on this. They’re both pretty well known local RE investors.Many people on this site have not lived through this, so it’s hard for them to understand how easily this can actually happen. But it can. Unemployment is a RE killer. The facts for this are overwhelmingly strong.
October 28, 2008 at 4:10 PM #294749Participantzzz, I lived through the early 1980’s recession and I was a RE investor/participant in the early 1990’s recession. And that’s exactly what happened. Even when many places could be purchased for cashflow positive rents, the fear of job loss and/or job relocation trumped it. I believe we may well see this again. Imagine having a rental where if you get one or two months of non-occupancy, you have to cover the payments and you’ve lost your job! So now, you’ve got your own mortgage as well as the mortgage on your rental to cover. Scary scenario!
I cant remember the exact correlation but it’s a curve that’s rather steep. I lost the data about a year ago. But both Carlos Royal and Bruce Norris have very good data on this. They’re both pretty well known local RE investors.Many people on this site have not lived through this, so it’s hard for them to understand how easily this can actually happen. But it can. Unemployment is a RE killer. The facts for this are overwhelmingly strong.
October 28, 2008 at 4:10 PM #294760Participantzzz, I lived through the early 1980’s recession and I was a RE investor/participant in the early 1990’s recession. And that’s exactly what happened. Even when many places could be purchased for cashflow positive rents, the fear of job loss and/or job relocation trumped it. I believe we may well see this again. Imagine having a rental where if you get one or two months of non-occupancy, you have to cover the payments and you’ve lost your job! So now, you’ve got your own mortgage as well as the mortgage on your rental to cover. Scary scenario!
I cant remember the exact correlation but it’s a curve that’s rather steep. I lost the data about a year ago. But both Carlos Royal and Bruce Norris have very good data on this. They’re both pretty well known local RE investors.Many people on this site have not lived through this, so it’s hard for them to understand how easily this can actually happen. But it can. Unemployment is a RE killer. The facts for this are overwhelmingly strong.
October 28, 2008 at 4:10 PM #294798Participantzzz, I lived through the early 1980’s recession and I was a RE investor/participant in the early 1990’s recession. And that’s exactly what happened. Even when many places could be purchased for cashflow positive rents, the fear of job loss and/or job relocation trumped it. I believe we may well see this again. Imagine having a rental where if you get one or two months of non-occupancy, you have to cover the payments and you’ve lost your job! So now, you’ve got your own mortgage as well as the mortgage on your rental to cover. Scary scenario!
I cant remember the exact correlation but it’s a curve that’s rather steep. I lost the data about a year ago. But both Carlos Royal and Bruce Norris have very good data on this. They’re both pretty well known local RE investors.Many people on this site have not lived through this, so it’s hard for them to understand how easily this can actually happen. But it can. Unemployment is a RE killer. The facts for this are overwhelmingly strong.
October 28, 2008 at 4:58 PM #294434temeculaguy
ParticipantWell I lived through past downturns and I liquidated a cash nuetral rental in the 90’s downturn based on that same fear (covering vacant mortgage while covering my primary while things economically were getting worse), 2nd worst r/e decision I ever made. The worst was listening to well known experts.
October 28, 2008 at 4:58 PM #294766ParticipantWell I lived through past downturns and I liquidated a cash nuetral rental in the 90’s downturn based on that same fear (covering vacant mortgage while covering my primary while things economically were getting worse), 2nd worst r/e decision I ever made. The worst was listening to well known experts.
October 28, 2008 at 4:58 PM #294789ParticipantWell I lived through past downturns and I liquidated a cash nuetral rental in the 90’s downturn based on that same fear (covering vacant mortgage while covering my primary while things economically were getting worse), 2nd worst r/e decision I ever made. The worst was listening to well known experts.
October 28, 2008 at 4:58 PM #294802ParticipantWell I lived through past downturns and I liquidated a cash nuetral rental in the 90’s downturn based on that same fear (covering vacant mortgage while covering my primary while things economically were getting worse), 2nd worst r/e decision I ever made. The worst was listening to well known experts.
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