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  • October 28, 2008 at 12:36 PM #294623
    carlsbadworker
    Participant

    [quote=carlsbadworker]That said, I just put an offer on a property over the weekend, because apparently everyone is watching World Series and nobody is out looking.[/quote]

    Crap, the house was bought by another buyer at the listing price (a little bit over $90/sqft). That just confirms my doubt that we will ever be able to buy 2009 price in 2008.

    October 28, 2008 at 3:54 PM #294374
    zzz
    Participant

    peterb, historically what is the correlation with each percentage increase in unemployment and those that move out of SD? i would imagine there are some people who a. get a roommate b. move in with local parents c. ride it out if they have savings, but i’m sure a high percentage take a job elsewhere if they can get it or relocate because they cannot afford rent + bills on unemployment.

    i think if unemployment picks up steam here in SD, the psychology of not wanting to be tied down to a mortgage will kick in as well EVEN if you can be cash flow positive or break even on buy vs rent. just because you have a job now doesn’t mean you will tomorrow.

    October 28, 2008 at 3:54 PM #294706
    zzz
    Participant

    peterb, historically what is the correlation with each percentage increase in unemployment and those that move out of SD? i would imagine there are some people who a. get a roommate b. move in with local parents c. ride it out if they have savings, but i’m sure a high percentage take a job elsewhere if they can get it or relocate because they cannot afford rent + bills on unemployment.

    i think if unemployment picks up steam here in SD, the psychology of not wanting to be tied down to a mortgage will kick in as well EVEN if you can be cash flow positive or break even on buy vs rent. just because you have a job now doesn’t mean you will tomorrow.

    October 28, 2008 at 3:54 PM #294729
    zzz
    Participant

    peterb, historically what is the correlation with each percentage increase in unemployment and those that move out of SD? i would imagine there are some people who a. get a roommate b. move in with local parents c. ride it out if they have savings, but i’m sure a high percentage take a job elsewhere if they can get it or relocate because they cannot afford rent + bills on unemployment.

    i think if unemployment picks up steam here in SD, the psychology of not wanting to be tied down to a mortgage will kick in as well EVEN if you can be cash flow positive or break even on buy vs rent. just because you have a job now doesn’t mean you will tomorrow.

    October 28, 2008 at 3:54 PM #294740
    zzz
    Participant

    peterb, historically what is the correlation with each percentage increase in unemployment and those that move out of SD? i would imagine there are some people who a. get a roommate b. move in with local parents c. ride it out if they have savings, but i’m sure a high percentage take a job elsewhere if they can get it or relocate because they cannot afford rent + bills on unemployment.

    i think if unemployment picks up steam here in SD, the psychology of not wanting to be tied down to a mortgage will kick in as well EVEN if you can be cash flow positive or break even on buy vs rent. just because you have a job now doesn’t mean you will tomorrow.

    October 28, 2008 at 3:54 PM #294779
    zzz
    Participant

    peterb, historically what is the correlation with each percentage increase in unemployment and those that move out of SD? i would imagine there are some people who a. get a roommate b. move in with local parents c. ride it out if they have savings, but i’m sure a high percentage take a job elsewhere if they can get it or relocate because they cannot afford rent + bills on unemployment.

    i think if unemployment picks up steam here in SD, the psychology of not wanting to be tied down to a mortgage will kick in as well EVEN if you can be cash flow positive or break even on buy vs rent. just because you have a job now doesn’t mean you will tomorrow.

    October 28, 2008 at 4:10 PM #294394
    peterb
    Participant

    zzz, I lived through the early 1980’s recession and I was a RE investor/participant in the early 1990’s recession. And that’s exactly what happened. Even when many places could be purchased for cashflow positive rents, the fear of job loss and/or job relocation trumped it. I believe we may well see this again. Imagine having a rental where if you get one or two months of non-occupancy, you have to cover the payments and you’ve lost your job! So now, you’ve got your own mortgage as well as the mortgage on your rental to cover. Scary scenario!
    I cant remember the exact correlation but it’s a curve that’s rather steep. I lost the data about a year ago. But both Carlos Royal and Bruce Norris have very good data on this. They’re both pretty well known local RE investors.

    Many people on this site have not lived through this, so it’s hard for them to understand how easily this can actually happen. But it can. Unemployment is a RE killer. The facts for this are overwhelmingly strong.

    October 28, 2008 at 4:10 PM #294726
    peterb
    Participant

    zzz, I lived through the early 1980’s recession and I was a RE investor/participant in the early 1990’s recession. And that’s exactly what happened. Even when many places could be purchased for cashflow positive rents, the fear of job loss and/or job relocation trumped it. I believe we may well see this again. Imagine having a rental where if you get one or two months of non-occupancy, you have to cover the payments and you’ve lost your job! So now, you’ve got your own mortgage as well as the mortgage on your rental to cover. Scary scenario!
    I cant remember the exact correlation but it’s a curve that’s rather steep. I lost the data about a year ago. But both Carlos Royal and Bruce Norris have very good data on this. They’re both pretty well known local RE investors.

    Many people on this site have not lived through this, so it’s hard for them to understand how easily this can actually happen. But it can. Unemployment is a RE killer. The facts for this are overwhelmingly strong.

    October 28, 2008 at 4:10 PM #294749
    peterb
    Participant

    zzz, I lived through the early 1980’s recession and I was a RE investor/participant in the early 1990’s recession. And that’s exactly what happened. Even when many places could be purchased for cashflow positive rents, the fear of job loss and/or job relocation trumped it. I believe we may well see this again. Imagine having a rental where if you get one or two months of non-occupancy, you have to cover the payments and you’ve lost your job! So now, you’ve got your own mortgage as well as the mortgage on your rental to cover. Scary scenario!
    I cant remember the exact correlation but it’s a curve that’s rather steep. I lost the data about a year ago. But both Carlos Royal and Bruce Norris have very good data on this. They’re both pretty well known local RE investors.

    Many people on this site have not lived through this, so it’s hard for them to understand how easily this can actually happen. But it can. Unemployment is a RE killer. The facts for this are overwhelmingly strong.

    October 28, 2008 at 4:10 PM #294760
    peterb
    Participant

    zzz, I lived through the early 1980’s recession and I was a RE investor/participant in the early 1990’s recession. And that’s exactly what happened. Even when many places could be purchased for cashflow positive rents, the fear of job loss and/or job relocation trumped it. I believe we may well see this again. Imagine having a rental where if you get one or two months of non-occupancy, you have to cover the payments and you’ve lost your job! So now, you’ve got your own mortgage as well as the mortgage on your rental to cover. Scary scenario!
    I cant remember the exact correlation but it’s a curve that’s rather steep. I lost the data about a year ago. But both Carlos Royal and Bruce Norris have very good data on this. They’re both pretty well known local RE investors.

    Many people on this site have not lived through this, so it’s hard for them to understand how easily this can actually happen. But it can. Unemployment is a RE killer. The facts for this are overwhelmingly strong.

    October 28, 2008 at 4:10 PM #294798
    peterb
    Participant

    zzz, I lived through the early 1980’s recession and I was a RE investor/participant in the early 1990’s recession. And that’s exactly what happened. Even when many places could be purchased for cashflow positive rents, the fear of job loss and/or job relocation trumped it. I believe we may well see this again. Imagine having a rental where if you get one or two months of non-occupancy, you have to cover the payments and you’ve lost your job! So now, you’ve got your own mortgage as well as the mortgage on your rental to cover. Scary scenario!
    I cant remember the exact correlation but it’s a curve that’s rather steep. I lost the data about a year ago. But both Carlos Royal and Bruce Norris have very good data on this. They’re both pretty well known local RE investors.

    Many people on this site have not lived through this, so it’s hard for them to understand how easily this can actually happen. But it can. Unemployment is a RE killer. The facts for this are overwhelmingly strong.

    October 28, 2008 at 4:58 PM #294434
    temeculaguy
    Participant

    Well I lived through past downturns and I liquidated a cash nuetral rental in the 90’s downturn based on that same fear (covering vacant mortgage while covering my primary while things economically were getting worse), 2nd worst r/e decision I ever made. The worst was listening to well known experts.

    October 28, 2008 at 4:58 PM #294766
    temeculaguy
    Participant

    Well I lived through past downturns and I liquidated a cash nuetral rental in the 90’s downturn based on that same fear (covering vacant mortgage while covering my primary while things economically were getting worse), 2nd worst r/e decision I ever made. The worst was listening to well known experts.

    October 28, 2008 at 4:58 PM #294789
    temeculaguy
    Participant

    Well I lived through past downturns and I liquidated a cash nuetral rental in the 90’s downturn based on that same fear (covering vacant mortgage while covering my primary while things economically were getting worse), 2nd worst r/e decision I ever made. The worst was listening to well known experts.

    October 28, 2008 at 4:58 PM #294802
    temeculaguy
    Participant

    Well I lived through past downturns and I liquidated a cash nuetral rental in the 90’s downturn based on that same fear (covering vacant mortgage while covering my primary while things economically were getting worse), 2nd worst r/e decision I ever made. The worst was listening to well known experts.

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