- This topic has 65 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 4 months ago by
scaredyclassic.
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May 14, 2020 at 8:37 PM #817285May 15, 2020 at 3:10 AM #817288
CoronitaParticipantChandler, AZ is like only 26 minutes to Phoenix?
I’m trying to find more info about where TSMC is planning to put their fab facility in AZ.
The thing to note specifically about TSMC’s fab move is it’s strategic for both the US and Taiwan.
Reading between the lines, this is an arms race between the US and China. US is pivoting to secure semiconductor manufacturing away from China using Taiwan and TSMC as a proxy. US will most likely pass some order banning TSMC from doing business with Huawei if it wants to do business with the US. Huawei is already pulling business out of TSMC and moving to their own fabs in China. US needs to throw TSMC a bone, and by putting a fab facility on US soil, probably just committed a huge bill of military/defense business to TSMC. A tech cold war with China is brewing.
May 15, 2020 at 9:14 AM #817289utcsox
Participant[quote=bpnbpn]You are right. It’s a confirmed news. Great to see AZ getting this opportunity. BTW, I also saw this news:
Zoom is opening up an office in Phoenix area.[/quote]
Counter point. Perhaps, you shall read how it turn out for Wisconsin from another Taiwanese business Foxconns.
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/14/796349247/foxconns-promises-slow-to-materialize-in-wisconsin
May 15, 2020 at 7:59 PM #817317bpnbpn
ParticipantYes chandler is very close to Phoenix (around 20 mins). This particular property is off of 202 loop which is a big plus to get easily to anywhere in the valley.
I am still thinking about this. It’s a big risk but possibly big return situation. I usually avoid taking too much risk. I don’t see a lot of help to landlord from AZ government as well.
I twisting the arms with the builder and their lender to shave few 1000 dollars of the home price and get a very good interest rate. Their rate is horrible (3.99 with 0.25 points). If I shop outside I will lose their 5,000 $ incentive towards closing.
When we visited Chandler late last year, looking thorough the community, we definitely felt that it’s a great place to invest. It’s just that not sure it’s the right time now.
May 16, 2020 at 12:56 AM #817318FlyerInHi
Guest[quote=bpnbpn]I am still thinking about this. It’s a big risk but possibly big return situation. I usually avoid taking too much risk. I don’t see a lot of help to landlord from AZ government as well.[/quote]
I am curious why you think it could be a “big return” situation. Are you thinking you are buying an undervalued asset? Are the risk and return symmetrical in your analysis?
May 16, 2020 at 7:51 AM #817322ltsddd
Participant.
May 16, 2020 at 7:52 AM #817323Participant[quote=utcsox][quote=bpnbpn]You are right. It’s a confirmed news. Great to see AZ getting this opportunity. BTW, I also saw this news:
Zoom is opening up an office in Phoenix area.[/quote]
Counter point. Perhaps, you shall read how it turn out for Wisconsin from another Taiwanese business Foxconns.
My exact thoughts.
May 16, 2020 at 1:44 PM #817332Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
I am curious why you think it could be a “big return” situation. Are you thinking you are buying an undervalued asset? Are the risk and return symmetrical in your analysis?[/quote]
Here is my thinking, let me know if I am not thinking right.
High return:
1) Phoenix valley area is a hot market. Great schools (BASIS), lots of tech companies moving in (Intel, Paypal etc), great infrastructure (101/202 loop).
2) I heard Maricopa county sees around 5,000 people moving in every month from various parts of US (including CA).
3) Affordable market – the price of 2,000 sqft single family (3 to 4 bedroom) house is around mid to upper 300s. We can’t get anything with that money here in SD.
4) Cashflow is great. The rent for such house is running around 2,100 to 2,400 $.So, if AZ real estate market stays resilient through this covid and possible recession, it’s a great investment for long term.
High risk:
1) AZ market may not be resilient and can still see a dip in price if Covid situation gets worse or recession prolongs. There are studies ranging from “no impact to housing” to up to 30% dip in value. I haven’t seen a lot of studies saying the property value will go up during this tough time. So I may not lose much for waiting (except for the earnest money)
2) AZ has also seen high unemployment rate and renters going default.
3) AZ govt is very similar to CA in supporting rent relief program
4) I believe rents will go down across US as vacation rentals will now move towards long term rentals, no new crowd moving in from outside of USA etc.What do you think?
May 16, 2020 at 11:36 PM #817343Guest[quote=bpnbpn]There are studies ranging from “no impact to housing” to up to 30% dip in value. I haven’t seen a lot of studies saying the property value will go up during this tough time. So I may not lose much for waiting (except for the earnest money)
[/quote]I feel like for the foreseeable future, the downside risks are greater. It’s not a coin toss.
May 21, 2020 at 7:45 PM #817507Participantok, finally made the decision to pull the offer out. the market is too unpredictable at this point, so took a safer path.
May 21, 2020 at 8:01 PM #817508CoronitaParticipant[quote=bpnbpn]ok, finally made the decision to pull the offer out. the market is too unpredictable at this point, so took a safer path.[/quote]
Best wishes for you….
May 22, 2020 at 2:19 PM #817535
svelteParticipantNot an easy decision for sure.
Glad it was you who had to make it and not me.
In the grand scheme of things, $5K is a very small amount to lose.
May 22, 2020 at 2:51 PM #817536
barnaby33ParticipantVery small. 1 angry renter and a bag of cement.
JoshMay 22, 2020 at 4:37 PM #817539gzz
ParticipantI love the Phoenix area, but I would not expect any big gains there. There is so much space to develop, both virgin and infill/teardown. Any newly developed suburban area with 350k+ houses there is going have good schools, that does not make Chandler unique. And in 15 years you’re competing with a lot of brand new places with the latest smart home cool features fully built in.
With the area’s excellent and mostly new and wide highway system, and general decentralization, living far away isn’t a big deal.
To look at it another way, the Dallas metro area is much larger, fairly well off (until the oil bust), and also has lots of wide open spaces. Even with its huge population, prices are pretty low there. Check out what 550k gets you in Plano:
https://www.zillow.com/community/heritage-ridge-estates/2084054456_zpid/
It is tacky but I like it anyway.
May 23, 2020 at 9:12 AM #817543 -
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