Inventory

[Huckleberry]

JP,

“Where do you get only 12% of mortgages in 92109 are under water?”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/images/20090216underwater.pdf

I don’t wish poor fortune on anyone, but I really was hoping there would be more 92109 upside-down mortgages.

I am starting to think, with the increased conventional loan limits and the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan, many PB homes will be refinanced, saving them from the Alt-A problems and making houses unattainable for the next few years, until prices come back in line with incomes. Unless of course like you said, many got HELOC’s and just blew them…

You mention “short of a miracle I don’t know what’s going to save it.” How much (percentage wise) do you think PB may correct and in what time frames?

I keep waiting for that area to fall there along with other high priced areas, but it seems to be very “sticky”.

What’s your take on this?

[PadreBrian]

12% ain’t half bad.
Not sure why you want more.
The general wishing of bad things to happen to people is a bit non-Christian/Buddhist/Jewish/what-ever religion here.

[PadreBrian]

12% ain’t half bad.
Not sure why you want more.
The general wishing of bad things to happen to people is a bit non-Christian/Buddhist/Jewish/what-ever religion here.

[PadreBrian]

12% ain’t half bad.
Not sure why you want more.
The general wishing of bad things to happen to people is a bit non-Christian/Buddhist/Jewish/what-ever religion here.

[PadreBrian]

12% ain’t half bad.
Not sure why you want more.
The general wishing of bad things to happen to people is a bit non-Christian/Buddhist/Jewish/what-ever religion here.

[PadreBrian]

12% ain’t half bad.
Not sure why you want more.
The general wishing of bad things to happen to people is a bit non-Christian/Buddhist/Jewish/what-ever religion here.

[jpinpb]

OK. The numbers are from Dataquick. I wonder where and how they assembled the information. I have questioned their accuracy ever since they started indicating the Days on Market of properties. They only went by the MLS#s.

Clearly, we Piggs know how accurate that is. Particularly since realtors like to play roulette MLS and listings expire frequently so they can relist and be in the spotlight.

Secondly, how can they estimate how many Alt-As and Option ARMs will choose to walk in the future? Even if they actually went down to the county and got the numbers of all the NODs and determined the % of underwater, it would be difficult to predict in the future how many will choose to just walk.

There was a lot of speculation in PB. Heck, just the boardwalk alone, which almost exclusively thanks to OPP had been pulling up the averages and medians in 92109 consists primarily of investors.

Although I haven’t recently, over the summer I’ve skated up and down that boardwalk frequently and there are few owners hanging out there. It is almost exclusively rental properties. About the only person I’ve seen on the boardwalk more than the regular renters, skaters, joggers is the OPP guy.

And by now, in light of his successful auction, you must all know how well that’s going. Still holding on thinking it’s 2006. Refusing to accept reality.

I am not denying that it’s sticky. Like a stand-off. Who will hold out the longest? Those that need to sell or those that want to buy?

Edit: Here we go. 1955 Missouri short sale listed at 234 psf. Still not at Case-Shiller 2002 price, but for PB, it’s an indication of pain on the way.

[jpinpb]

OK. The numbers are from Dataquick. I wonder where and how they assembled the information. I have questioned their accuracy ever since they started indicating the Days on Market of properties. They only went by the MLS#s.

Clearly, we Piggs know how accurate that is. Particularly since realtors like to play roulette MLS and listings expire frequently so they can relist and be in the spotlight.

Secondly, how can they estimate how many Alt-As and Option ARMs will choose to walk in the future? Even if they actually went down to the county and got the numbers of all the NODs and determined the % of underwater, it would be difficult to predict in the future how many will choose to just walk.

There was a lot of speculation in PB. Heck, just the boardwalk alone, which almost exclusively thanks to OPP had been pulling up the averages and medians in 92109 consists primarily of investors.

Although I haven’t recently, over the summer I’ve skated up and down that boardwalk frequently and there are few owners hanging out there. It is almost exclusively rental properties. About the only person I’ve seen on the boardwalk more than the regular renters, skaters, joggers is the OPP guy.

And by now, in light of his successful auction, you must all know how well that’s going. Still holding on thinking it’s 2006. Refusing to accept reality.

I am not denying that it’s sticky. Like a stand-off. Who will hold out the longest? Those that need to sell or those that want to buy?

Edit: Here we go. 1955 Missouri short sale listed at 234 psf. Still not at Case-Shiller 2002 price, but for PB, it’s an indication of pain on the way.

[jpinpb]

OK. The numbers are from Dataquick. I wonder where and how they assembled the information. I have questioned their accuracy ever since they started indicating the Days on Market of properties. They only went by the MLS#s.

Clearly, we Piggs know how accurate that is. Particularly since realtors like to play roulette MLS and listings expire frequently so they can relist and be in the spotlight.

Secondly, how can they estimate how many Alt-As and Option ARMs will choose to walk in the future? Even if they actually went down to the county and got the numbers of all the NODs and determined the % of underwater, it would be difficult to predict in the future how many will choose to just walk.

There was a lot of speculation in PB. Heck, just the boardwalk alone, which almost exclusively thanks to OPP had been pulling up the averages and medians in 92109 consists primarily of investors.

Although I haven’t recently, over the summer I’ve skated up and down that boardwalk frequently and there are few owners hanging out there. It is almost exclusively rental properties. About the only person I’ve seen on the boardwalk more than the regular renters, skaters, joggers is the OPP guy.

And by now, in light of his successful auction, you must all know how well that’s going. Still holding on thinking it’s 2006. Refusing to accept reality.

I am not denying that it’s sticky. Like a stand-off. Who will hold out the longest? Those that need to sell or those that want to buy?

Edit: Here we go. 1955 Missouri short sale listed at 234 psf. Still not at Case-Shiller 2002 price, but for PB, it’s an indication of pain on the way.

[jpinpb]

OK. The numbers are from Dataquick. I wonder where and how they assembled the information. I have questioned their accuracy ever since they started indicating the Days on Market of properties. They only went by the MLS#s.

Clearly, we Piggs know how accurate that is. Particularly since realtors like to play roulette MLS and listings expire frequently so they can relist and be in the spotlight.

Secondly, how can they estimate how many Alt-As and Option ARMs will choose to walk in the future? Even if they actually went down to the county and got the numbers of all the NODs and determined the % of underwater, it would be difficult to predict in the future how many will choose to just walk.

There was a lot of speculation in PB. Heck, just the boardwalk alone, which almost exclusively thanks to OPP had been pulling up the averages and medians in 92109 consists primarily of investors.

Although I haven’t recently, over the summer I’ve skated up and down that boardwalk frequently and there are few owners hanging out there. It is almost exclusively rental properties. About the only person I’ve seen on the boardwalk more than the regular renters, skaters, joggers is the OPP guy.

And by now, in light of his successful auction, you must all know how well that’s going. Still holding on thinking it’s 2006. Refusing to accept reality.

I am not denying that it’s sticky. Like a stand-off. Who will hold out the longest? Those that need to sell or those that want to buy?

Edit: Here we go. 1955 Missouri short sale listed at 234 psf. Still not at Case-Shiller 2002 price, but for PB, it’s an indication of pain on the way.

[jpinpb]

OK. The numbers are from Dataquick. I wonder where and how they assembled the information. I have questioned their accuracy ever since they started indicating the Days on Market of properties. They only went by the MLS#s.

Clearly, we Piggs know how accurate that is. Particularly since realtors like to play roulette MLS and listings expire frequently so they can relist and be in the spotlight.

Secondly, how can they estimate how many Alt-As and Option ARMs will choose to walk in the future? Even if they actually went down to the county and got the numbers of all the NODs and determined the % of underwater, it would be difficult to predict in the future how many will choose to just walk.

There was a lot of speculation in PB. Heck, just the boardwalk alone, which almost exclusively thanks to OPP had been pulling up the averages and medians in 92109 consists primarily of investors.

Although I haven’t recently, over the summer I’ve skated up and down that boardwalk frequently and there are few owners hanging out there. It is almost exclusively rental properties. About the only person I’ve seen on the boardwalk more than the regular renters, skaters, joggers is the OPP guy.

And by now, in light of his successful auction, you must all know how well that’s going. Still holding on thinking it’s 2006. Refusing to accept reality.

I am not denying that it’s sticky. Like a stand-off. Who will hold out the longest? Those that need to sell or those that want to buy?

Edit: Here we go. 1955 Missouri short sale listed at 234 psf. Still not at Case-Shiller 2002 price, but for PB, it’s an indication of pain on the way.

[davelj]

[quote=sdrealtor]SD is a very different place today than in 1994. It is a much more divere economy and is a much higher profile place than it was in 1994 when most folks east of the mississippi barely knew anything about it.[/quote]

Actually, I agree with sdr on this even though it’s obvious that real estate prices still have a ways to go on the downside. And while I never bought into the Every-One-Wants-To-Live-Here-So-It-Doesn’t-Matter-What-You-Pay meme, apparently lots of folks do want to live here (“San Diego ranked 2nd Most Desirable Place to Live in National Survey”):

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jan/29/1n29pew231129-national-survey-ranks-metropolitan-a/?zIndex=44690

My comment would be “at the right price,” which we are in the process of getting to, after what’s sure to be more downward adjustment. I think one can be bearish on local real estate and still accept that SD is a more desirable place to live than most other places and that its relative desirability has increased since the ’90s.

[davelj]

[quote=sdrealtor]SD is a very different place today than in 1994. It is a much more divere economy and is a much higher profile place than it was in 1994 when most folks east of the mississippi barely knew anything about it.[/quote]

Actually, I agree with sdr on this even though it’s obvious that real estate prices still have a ways to go on the downside. And while I never bought into the Every-One-Wants-To-Live-Here-So-It-Doesn’t-Matter-What-You-Pay meme, apparently lots of folks do want to live here (“San Diego ranked 2nd Most Desirable Place to Live in National Survey”):

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jan/29/1n29pew231129-national-survey-ranks-metropolitan-a/?zIndex=44690

My comment would be “at the right price,” which we are in the process of getting to, after what’s sure to be more downward adjustment. I think one can be bearish on local real estate and still accept that SD is a more desirable place to live than most other places and that its relative desirability has increased since the ’90s.

[davelj]

[quote=sdrealtor]SD is a very different place today than in 1994. It is a much more divere economy and is a much higher profile place than it was in 1994 when most folks east of the mississippi barely knew anything about it.[/quote]

Actually, I agree with sdr on this even though it’s obvious that real estate prices still have a ways to go on the downside. And while I never bought into the Every-One-Wants-To-Live-Here-So-It-Doesn’t-Matter-What-You-Pay meme, apparently lots of folks do want to live here (“San Diego ranked 2nd Most Desirable Place to Live in National Survey”):

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jan/29/1n29pew231129-national-survey-ranks-metropolitan-a/?zIndex=44690

My comment would be “at the right price,” which we are in the process of getting to, after what’s sure to be more downward adjustment. I think one can be bearish on local real estate and still accept that SD is a more desirable place to live than most other places and that its relative desirability has increased since the ’90s.

[davelj]

[quote=sdrealtor]SD is a very different place today than in 1994. It is a much more divere economy and is a much higher profile place than it was in 1994 when most folks east of the mississippi barely knew anything about it.[/quote]

Actually, I agree with sdr on this even though it’s obvious that real estate prices still have a ways to go on the downside. And while I never bought into the Every-One-Wants-To-Live-Here-So-It-Doesn’t-Matter-What-You-Pay meme, apparently lots of folks do want to live here (“San Diego ranked 2nd Most Desirable Place to Live in National Survey”):

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jan/29/1n29pew231129-national-survey-ranks-metropolitan-a/?zIndex=44690

My comment would be “at the right price,” which we are in the process of getting to, after what’s sure to be more downward adjustment. I think one can be bearish on local real estate and still accept that SD is a more desirable place to live than most other places and that its relative desirability has increased since the ’90s.

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