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UCGal.
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February 25, 2009 at 2:47 PM #355354February 26, 2009 at 12:38 PM #355340
Huckleberry
ParticipantJP,
Considering you are an expert in the PB area. What are your thoughts about the potential price correction in the future for all of 92109?
Considering these things:
– Only 12% of mortgages in the 92109 zip are underwater.– Once the stimulus goes through (w/ no principal write down for non-conforming and no Jumbo provisions).
– Significantly tighter lending standards.
– The pending Alt-A & Pay Option ARM issues.
– Incomes and prices still out of whack.
– Any other issues I may have forgotten specific to this area.
February 26, 2009 at 12:38 PM #355649ParticipantJP,
Considering you are an expert in the PB area. What are your thoughts about the potential price correction in the future for all of 92109?
Considering these things:
– Only 12% of mortgages in the 92109 zip are underwater.– Once the stimulus goes through (w/ no principal write down for non-conforming and no Jumbo provisions).
– Significantly tighter lending standards.
– The pending Alt-A & Pay Option ARM issues.
– Incomes and prices still out of whack.
– Any other issues I may have forgotten specific to this area.
February 26, 2009 at 12:38 PM #355786ParticipantJP,
Considering you are an expert in the PB area. What are your thoughts about the potential price correction in the future for all of 92109?
Considering these things:
– Only 12% of mortgages in the 92109 zip are underwater.– Once the stimulus goes through (w/ no principal write down for non-conforming and no Jumbo provisions).
– Significantly tighter lending standards.
– The pending Alt-A & Pay Option ARM issues.
– Incomes and prices still out of whack.
– Any other issues I may have forgotten specific to this area.
February 26, 2009 at 12:38 PM #355816ParticipantJP,
Considering you are an expert in the PB area. What are your thoughts about the potential price correction in the future for all of 92109?
Considering these things:
– Only 12% of mortgages in the 92109 zip are underwater.– Once the stimulus goes through (w/ no principal write down for non-conforming and no Jumbo provisions).
– Significantly tighter lending standards.
– The pending Alt-A & Pay Option ARM issues.
– Incomes and prices still out of whack.
– Any other issues I may have forgotten specific to this area.
February 26, 2009 at 12:38 PM #355927ParticipantJP,
Considering you are an expert in the PB area. What are your thoughts about the potential price correction in the future for all of 92109?
Considering these things:
– Only 12% of mortgages in the 92109 zip are underwater.– Once the stimulus goes through (w/ no principal write down for non-conforming and no Jumbo provisions).
– Significantly tighter lending standards.
– The pending Alt-A & Pay Option ARM issues.
– Incomes and prices still out of whack.
– Any other issues I may have forgotten specific to this area.
February 26, 2009 at 12:59 PM #355500jpinpb
Participant[quote=Huckleberry]JP,
Considering these things:
– Only 12% of mortgages in the 92109 zip are underwater.
[/quote]Where do you get only 12% of mortgages in 92109 are under water?
I’m not an expert. Just trying to do as much research as I can before I break down and buy.
From my observation, as I’ve said, places are languishing on the market. From what I see, seems like very little moves. It has to be reduced considerably to get a sale.
I don’t think the stimulus will help the higher end homes, particularly if there’s no principal write-downs and no Jumbo provision.
The tightening lending standards will make it harder to flip the hot potato onto someone else lying to get a loan.
Alt-A and Option ARMs will be the nails in the coffins for a lot of higher priced homes.
Incomes are still certainly out of whack.
Other issue not mentioned is the unemployment – and the people who cannot declare unemployment should be added to the mix.
Businesses in PB are closing left and right.
As I said on another thread, short of some miracle, I don’t know what’s going to save it.
I will qualify by saying that there was a tremendous amount of HELOCs pulled out of places that were purchased well before the bubble started.
My take on that is if these people banked their money, there is a LOT of cash out there on the sidelines. If they spent is on buying other houses, paying cards off, remodling, taking trips, buying cars, LCDs, etc. etc. then they’re pretty much screwed.
I’ll say that knowing the nature of people and consumerism, there’s a small percentage of people that banked their HELOC.
February 26, 2009 at 12:59 PM #355809Participant[quote=Huckleberry]JP,
Considering these things:
– Only 12% of mortgages in the 92109 zip are underwater.
[/quote]Where do you get only 12% of mortgages in 92109 are under water?
I’m not an expert. Just trying to do as much research as I can before I break down and buy.
From my observation, as I’ve said, places are languishing on the market. From what I see, seems like very little moves. It has to be reduced considerably to get a sale.
I don’t think the stimulus will help the higher end homes, particularly if there’s no principal write-downs and no Jumbo provision.
The tightening lending standards will make it harder to flip the hot potato onto someone else lying to get a loan.
Alt-A and Option ARMs will be the nails in the coffins for a lot of higher priced homes.
Incomes are still certainly out of whack.
Other issue not mentioned is the unemployment – and the people who cannot declare unemployment should be added to the mix.
Businesses in PB are closing left and right.
As I said on another thread, short of some miracle, I don’t know what’s going to save it.
I will qualify by saying that there was a tremendous amount of HELOCs pulled out of places that were purchased well before the bubble started.
My take on that is if these people banked their money, there is a LOT of cash out there on the sidelines. If they spent is on buying other houses, paying cards off, remodling, taking trips, buying cars, LCDs, etc. etc. then they’re pretty much screwed.
I’ll say that knowing the nature of people and consumerism, there’s a small percentage of people that banked their HELOC.
February 26, 2009 at 12:59 PM #355947Participant[quote=Huckleberry]JP,
Considering these things:
– Only 12% of mortgages in the 92109 zip are underwater.
[/quote]Where do you get only 12% of mortgages in 92109 are under water?
I’m not an expert. Just trying to do as much research as I can before I break down and buy.
From my observation, as I’ve said, places are languishing on the market. From what I see, seems like very little moves. It has to be reduced considerably to get a sale.
I don’t think the stimulus will help the higher end homes, particularly if there’s no principal write-downs and no Jumbo provision.
The tightening lending standards will make it harder to flip the hot potato onto someone else lying to get a loan.
Alt-A and Option ARMs will be the nails in the coffins for a lot of higher priced homes.
Incomes are still certainly out of whack.
Other issue not mentioned is the unemployment – and the people who cannot declare unemployment should be added to the mix.
Businesses in PB are closing left and right.
As I said on another thread, short of some miracle, I don’t know what’s going to save it.
I will qualify by saying that there was a tremendous amount of HELOCs pulled out of places that were purchased well before the bubble started.
My take on that is if these people banked their money, there is a LOT of cash out there on the sidelines. If they spent is on buying other houses, paying cards off, remodling, taking trips, buying cars, LCDs, etc. etc. then they’re pretty much screwed.
I’ll say that knowing the nature of people and consumerism, there’s a small percentage of people that banked their HELOC.
February 26, 2009 at 12:59 PM #355977Participant[quote=Huckleberry]JP,
Considering these things:
– Only 12% of mortgages in the 92109 zip are underwater.
[/quote]Where do you get only 12% of mortgages in 92109 are under water?
I’m not an expert. Just trying to do as much research as I can before I break down and buy.
From my observation, as I’ve said, places are languishing on the market. From what I see, seems like very little moves. It has to be reduced considerably to get a sale.
I don’t think the stimulus will help the higher end homes, particularly if there’s no principal write-downs and no Jumbo provision.
The tightening lending standards will make it harder to flip the hot potato onto someone else lying to get a loan.
Alt-A and Option ARMs will be the nails in the coffins for a lot of higher priced homes.
Incomes are still certainly out of whack.
Other issue not mentioned is the unemployment – and the people who cannot declare unemployment should be added to the mix.
Businesses in PB are closing left and right.
As I said on another thread, short of some miracle, I don’t know what’s going to save it.
I will qualify by saying that there was a tremendous amount of HELOCs pulled out of places that were purchased well before the bubble started.
My take on that is if these people banked their money, there is a LOT of cash out there on the sidelines. If they spent is on buying other houses, paying cards off, remodling, taking trips, buying cars, LCDs, etc. etc. then they’re pretty much screwed.
I’ll say that knowing the nature of people and consumerism, there’s a small percentage of people that banked their HELOC.
February 26, 2009 at 12:59 PM #356089Participant[quote=Huckleberry]JP,
Considering these things:
– Only 12% of mortgages in the 92109 zip are underwater.
[/quote]Where do you get only 12% of mortgages in 92109 are under water?
I’m not an expert. Just trying to do as much research as I can before I break down and buy.
From my observation, as I’ve said, places are languishing on the market. From what I see, seems like very little moves. It has to be reduced considerably to get a sale.
I don’t think the stimulus will help the higher end homes, particularly if there’s no principal write-downs and no Jumbo provision.
The tightening lending standards will make it harder to flip the hot potato onto someone else lying to get a loan.
Alt-A and Option ARMs will be the nails in the coffins for a lot of higher priced homes.
Incomes are still certainly out of whack.
Other issue not mentioned is the unemployment – and the people who cannot declare unemployment should be added to the mix.
Businesses in PB are closing left and right.
As I said on another thread, short of some miracle, I don’t know what’s going to save it.
I will qualify by saying that there was a tremendous amount of HELOCs pulled out of places that were purchased well before the bubble started.
My take on that is if these people banked their money, there is a LOT of cash out there on the sidelines. If they spent is on buying other houses, paying cards off, remodling, taking trips, buying cars, LCDs, etc. etc. then they’re pretty much screwed.
I’ll say that knowing the nature of people and consumerism, there’s a small percentage of people that banked their HELOC.
February 26, 2009 at 1:46 PM #355515ParticipantJP,
“Where do you get only 12% of mortgages in 92109 are under water?”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/images/20090216underwater.pdf
I don’t wish poor fortune on anyone, but I really was hoping there would be more 92109 upside-down mortgages.
I am starting to think, with the increased conventional loan limits and the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan, many PB homes will be refinanced, saving them from the Alt-A problems and making houses unattainable for the next few years, until prices come back in line with incomes. Unless of course like you said, many got HELOC’s and just blew them…
You mention “short of a miracle I don’t know what’s going to save it.” How much (percentage wise) do you think PB may correct and in what time frames?
I keep waiting for that area to fall there along with other high priced areas, but it seems to be very “sticky”.
What’s your take on this?
February 26, 2009 at 1:46 PM #355825ParticipantJP,
“Where do you get only 12% of mortgages in 92109 are under water?”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/images/20090216underwater.pdf
I don’t wish poor fortune on anyone, but I really was hoping there would be more 92109 upside-down mortgages.
I am starting to think, with the increased conventional loan limits and the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan, many PB homes will be refinanced, saving them from the Alt-A problems and making houses unattainable for the next few years, until prices come back in line with incomes. Unless of course like you said, many got HELOC’s and just blew them…
You mention “short of a miracle I don’t know what’s going to save it.” How much (percentage wise) do you think PB may correct and in what time frames?
I keep waiting for that area to fall there along with other high priced areas, but it seems to be very “sticky”.
What’s your take on this?
February 26, 2009 at 1:46 PM #355963ParticipantJP,
“Where do you get only 12% of mortgages in 92109 are under water?”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/images/20090216underwater.pdf
I don’t wish poor fortune on anyone, but I really was hoping there would be more 92109 upside-down mortgages.
I am starting to think, with the increased conventional loan limits and the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan, many PB homes will be refinanced, saving them from the Alt-A problems and making houses unattainable for the next few years, until prices come back in line with incomes. Unless of course like you said, many got HELOC’s and just blew them…
You mention “short of a miracle I don’t know what’s going to save it.” How much (percentage wise) do you think PB may correct and in what time frames?
I keep waiting for that area to fall there along with other high priced areas, but it seems to be very “sticky”.
What’s your take on this?
February 26, 2009 at 1:46 PM #355992ParticipantJP,
“Where do you get only 12% of mortgages in 92109 are under water?”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/images/20090216underwater.pdf
I don’t wish poor fortune on anyone, but I really was hoping there would be more 92109 upside-down mortgages.
I am starting to think, with the increased conventional loan limits and the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan, many PB homes will be refinanced, saving them from the Alt-A problems and making houses unattainable for the next few years, until prices come back in line with incomes. Unless of course like you said, many got HELOC’s and just blew them…
You mention “short of a miracle I don’t know what’s going to save it.” How much (percentage wise) do you think PB may correct and in what time frames?
I keep waiting for that area to fall there along with other high priced areas, but it seems to be very “sticky”.
What’s your take on this?
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