Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Interest rates plummet – licking my wounds….
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(former)FormerSanDiegan.
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May 5, 2011 at 3:53 PM #693852May 5, 2011 at 4:04 PM #692683
Arraya
Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=flu][quote=Arraya][quote=CA renter]I Everyone is short the dollar by going into other currencies, commodities, stocks, real estate, etc. They are expecting someone else to pay them more, in dollars, than they paid for these things, IMHO. If everyone who is convinced that the dollar is toast is already in on the trade, who is left to buy things at a higher price? The unemployed/underemployed workers? The poor from the developing nations, whose jobs depend on those (underemployed and unemployed) people in developed nations buying more junk?
.[/quote]
You just described a classic speculative bubble which is grounded in ponzi-dynamics. The bubble burst when it ran out of new entrants.[/quote]
Except there’s one big problem…. Precious metals and commodities got slaughtered today (and this week frankly)…..Silver kicked the bucket with more than 20% fall in just a few days… Ouch![/quote]
That’s the bubble bursting. It could be done, or it could be the beginning of something much bigger.[/quote]
Exactly, I think it has further to go before it gets pumped back up. How much I am not sure?
In a way, oil kind of acts as the anti-bubble when it gets to high.
All central banks are attempting to manipulate and debase fiat currencies but all the money they are printing is staying high up the food chain and going into long commodity contracts.
This is why devaluing the dollar will not work for the Fed, in the long run, as it just kept adding a premium on oil and hence all commodities, thus a checkmate.
May 5, 2011 at 4:04 PM #692759Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=flu][quote=Arraya][quote=CA renter]I Everyone is short the dollar by going into other currencies, commodities, stocks, real estate, etc. They are expecting someone else to pay them more, in dollars, than they paid for these things, IMHO. If everyone who is convinced that the dollar is toast is already in on the trade, who is left to buy things at a higher price? The unemployed/underemployed workers? The poor from the developing nations, whose jobs depend on those (underemployed and unemployed) people in developed nations buying more junk?
.[/quote]
You just described a classic speculative bubble which is grounded in ponzi-dynamics. The bubble burst when it ran out of new entrants.[/quote]
Except there’s one big problem…. Precious metals and commodities got slaughtered today (and this week frankly)…..Silver kicked the bucket with more than 20% fall in just a few days… Ouch![/quote]
That’s the bubble bursting. It could be done, or it could be the beginning of something much bigger.[/quote]
Exactly, I think it has further to go before it gets pumped back up. How much I am not sure?
In a way, oil kind of acts as the anti-bubble when it gets to high.
All central banks are attempting to manipulate and debase fiat currencies but all the money they are printing is staying high up the food chain and going into long commodity contracts.
This is why devaluing the dollar will not work for the Fed, in the long run, as it just kept adding a premium on oil and hence all commodities, thus a checkmate.
May 5, 2011 at 4:04 PM #693363Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=flu][quote=Arraya][quote=CA renter]I Everyone is short the dollar by going into other currencies, commodities, stocks, real estate, etc. They are expecting someone else to pay them more, in dollars, than they paid for these things, IMHO. If everyone who is convinced that the dollar is toast is already in on the trade, who is left to buy things at a higher price? The unemployed/underemployed workers? The poor from the developing nations, whose jobs depend on those (underemployed and unemployed) people in developed nations buying more junk?
.[/quote]
You just described a classic speculative bubble which is grounded in ponzi-dynamics. The bubble burst when it ran out of new entrants.[/quote]
Except there’s one big problem…. Precious metals and commodities got slaughtered today (and this week frankly)…..Silver kicked the bucket with more than 20% fall in just a few days… Ouch![/quote]
That’s the bubble bursting. It could be done, or it could be the beginning of something much bigger.[/quote]
Exactly, I think it has further to go before it gets pumped back up. How much I am not sure?
In a way, oil kind of acts as the anti-bubble when it gets to high.
All central banks are attempting to manipulate and debase fiat currencies but all the money they are printing is staying high up the food chain and going into long commodity contracts.
This is why devaluing the dollar will not work for the Fed, in the long run, as it just kept adding a premium on oil and hence all commodities, thus a checkmate.
May 5, 2011 at 4:04 PM #693511Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=flu][quote=Arraya][quote=CA renter]I Everyone is short the dollar by going into other currencies, commodities, stocks, real estate, etc. They are expecting someone else to pay them more, in dollars, than they paid for these things, IMHO. If everyone who is convinced that the dollar is toast is already in on the trade, who is left to buy things at a higher price? The unemployed/underemployed workers? The poor from the developing nations, whose jobs depend on those (underemployed and unemployed) people in developed nations buying more junk?
.[/quote]
You just described a classic speculative bubble which is grounded in ponzi-dynamics. The bubble burst when it ran out of new entrants.[/quote]
Except there’s one big problem…. Precious metals and commodities got slaughtered today (and this week frankly)…..Silver kicked the bucket with more than 20% fall in just a few days… Ouch![/quote]
That’s the bubble bursting. It could be done, or it could be the beginning of something much bigger.[/quote]
Exactly, I think it has further to go before it gets pumped back up. How much I am not sure?
In a way, oil kind of acts as the anti-bubble when it gets to high.
All central banks are attempting to manipulate and debase fiat currencies but all the money they are printing is staying high up the food chain and going into long commodity contracts.
This is why devaluing the dollar will not work for the Fed, in the long run, as it just kept adding a premium on oil and hence all commodities, thus a checkmate.
May 5, 2011 at 4:04 PM #693862Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=flu][quote=Arraya][quote=CA renter]I Everyone is short the dollar by going into other currencies, commodities, stocks, real estate, etc. They are expecting someone else to pay them more, in dollars, than they paid for these things, IMHO. If everyone who is convinced that the dollar is toast is already in on the trade, who is left to buy things at a higher price? The unemployed/underemployed workers? The poor from the developing nations, whose jobs depend on those (underemployed and unemployed) people in developed nations buying more junk?
.[/quote]
You just described a classic speculative bubble which is grounded in ponzi-dynamics. The bubble burst when it ran out of new entrants.[/quote]
Except there’s one big problem…. Precious metals and commodities got slaughtered today (and this week frankly)…..Silver kicked the bucket with more than 20% fall in just a few days… Ouch![/quote]
That’s the bubble bursting. It could be done, or it could be the beginning of something much bigger.[/quote]
Exactly, I think it has further to go before it gets pumped back up. How much I am not sure?
In a way, oil kind of acts as the anti-bubble when it gets to high.
All central banks are attempting to manipulate and debase fiat currencies but all the money they are printing is staying high up the food chain and going into long commodity contracts.
This is why devaluing the dollar will not work for the Fed, in the long run, as it just kept adding a premium on oil and hence all commodities, thus a checkmate.
May 5, 2011 at 4:07 PM #692688CA renter
ParticipantWe see things in very much the same way, Arraya.
May 5, 2011 at 4:07 PM #692764ParticipantWe see things in very much the same way, Arraya.
May 5, 2011 at 4:07 PM #693368ParticipantWe see things in very much the same way, Arraya.
May 5, 2011 at 4:07 PM #693516ParticipantWe see things in very much the same way, Arraya.
May 5, 2011 at 4:07 PM #693867ParticipantWe see things in very much the same way, Arraya.
May 5, 2011 at 5:12 PM #692703briansd1
Guest[quote=CA renter]
The low rates will provide a floor of sorts, and maybe even cause a bounce, but if the reason for the low rates is the strengthening dollar, housing prices will eventually fall, too, IMHO.[/quote]We shall see, CA renter.
More liquidity sloshing around means higher asset prices.
Compared to the rest of the world, American house prices are pretty low right now.
I think there will be stagnation of house prices for a couple years…. but I’m not sure how much lower they could go. Talking about house prices in general here. Certain higher end markets still have deflation in their near future.
May 5, 2011 at 5:12 PM #692779Guest[quote=CA renter]
The low rates will provide a floor of sorts, and maybe even cause a bounce, but if the reason for the low rates is the strengthening dollar, housing prices will eventually fall, too, IMHO.[/quote]We shall see, CA renter.
More liquidity sloshing around means higher asset prices.
Compared to the rest of the world, American house prices are pretty low right now.
I think there will be stagnation of house prices for a couple years…. but I’m not sure how much lower they could go. Talking about house prices in general here. Certain higher end markets still have deflation in their near future.
May 5, 2011 at 5:12 PM #693383Guest[quote=CA renter]
The low rates will provide a floor of sorts, and maybe even cause a bounce, but if the reason for the low rates is the strengthening dollar, housing prices will eventually fall, too, IMHO.[/quote]We shall see, CA renter.
More liquidity sloshing around means higher asset prices.
Compared to the rest of the world, American house prices are pretty low right now.
I think there will be stagnation of house prices for a couple years…. but I’m not sure how much lower they could go. Talking about house prices in general here. Certain higher end markets still have deflation in their near future.
May 5, 2011 at 5:12 PM #693531Guest[quote=CA renter]
The low rates will provide a floor of sorts, and maybe even cause a bounce, but if the reason for the low rates is the strengthening dollar, housing prices will eventually fall, too, IMHO.[/quote]We shall see, CA renter.
More liquidity sloshing around means higher asset prices.
Compared to the rest of the world, American house prices are pretty low right now.
I think there will be stagnation of house prices for a couple years…. but I’m not sure how much lower they could go. Talking about house prices in general here. Certain higher end markets still have deflation in their near future.
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