Inland Housing Supply Surges

[HarryBosch]

Saw this article in the PE newspaper today. Looks like the shadow inventory is beginning to appear.

Inland Housing Supply Surges

(Source: The Press-Enterprise)By Leslie Berkman, The Press-Enterprise, Riverside, Calif.
Jan. 8–Real estate brokers who sell bank-owned houses reported an unexpected surge of homes to sell last month.

They are waiting to see if it is a glitch or instead a move by banks to reduce the backlog of pending foreclosures and replenish Inland Southern California’s nearly barren real estate market.

“It appears that we are going to start seeing the inventory break loose. But maybe it is an illusion,” said Lance Martin, broker-owner of Coldwell Banker Pioneer Realty in Moreno Valley.

Pete Nyiri, owner of Top Producers Realty in Corona, and another major broker of bank-repossessed houses, said the number of new listings he received from banks increased 40 percent last month and surprised him because he was instead expecting a decline in new properties due to various holiday foreclosure moratoriums.

However, the brokers emphasized that the increase in bank-owned properties they have received will not be nearly enough to restore the market for first-time buyers who have been fiercely competing with one another and with cash rich investors for a shrunken inventory of entry-level houses.

The largest foreclosure brokers in Inland Southern California said they believe the banks have been holding back foreclosures, despite growing mortgage delinquencies, because they have been under political pressure to qualify financially troubled homeowners for loan modifications. All of them predicted that homes which banks are unable to save from foreclosure will start coming on the market in the first quarter of this year.

Whether newly foreclosed properties will appear in a deluge or in a steady stream is unknown, although most experts now are anticipating the banks will try to retain control to prevent home prices from plummeting.

“Nobody knows for sure,” said Steve McKee, a broker specializing in bank-owned properties at Coldwell Banker Armstrong Properties in Riverside. McKee said he expects a large increase in foreclosed houses. He said he has noticed that banks gearing up by shifting staff from loan modification departments to foreclosure processing.

“I think in a couple more weeks everyone will have a grasp of what is happening,” McKee said.

Short sales

Foreclosure brokers also anticipate that in 2010 many more foreclosure threatened houses will become available to prospective buyers as short sales, where lenders allow the owner to sell a home for less than the mortgage.

The Obama Administration has adopted new short sale guidelines for banks that will become effective in April and the foreclosure brokers said their bank clients have told them they are preparing to do more short sales.

“Some are ramping up their short sales mitigation departments,” said Michael Novak-Smith of ReMax Results in Moreno Valley. Novak-Smith said he believes banks have figured out it is cheaper selling a house when it is occupied, even at a loss, rather than absorbing the expense of maintaining and selling a house they have repossessed.

Surest sign

Sean O’Toole, chief executive of ForeclosureRadar.com, an online foreclosure data company, said the surest sign that the banks have chosen to unload their backlog of distressed properties will be when they stop postponing foreclosures by allowing more properties to be auctioned on the courthouse steps. So far, he said, that has not occurred.

O’Toole said, “We continue to believe there will be government pressure on banks not to foreclose en masse and there will be no foreclosure wave.”

Under existing accounting rules, banks do not have to declare their delinquent mortgages as losses until the houses are sold, O’Toole noted. He said it is not in the interest of the banks or federal government to allow a flood of foreclosures because the resulting declared losses could force more bank closures and put more pressure on the already stressed Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

[temeculaguy]

Interesting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers

current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)

Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150

total population about 60k

averave sales are about 150 a month

in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers

in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000

current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.

So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.

I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.

[temeculaguy]

Interesting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers

current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)

Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150

total population about 60k

averave sales are about 150 a month

in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers

in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000

current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.

So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.

I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.

[temeculaguy]

Interesting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers

current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)

Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150

total population about 60k

averave sales are about 150 a month

in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers

in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000

current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.

So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.

I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.

[temeculaguy]

Interesting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers

current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)

Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150

total population about 60k

averave sales are about 150 a month

in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers

in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000

current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.

So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.

I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.

[temeculaguy]

Interesting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers

current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)

Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150

total population about 60k

averave sales are about 150 a month

in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers

in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000

current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.

So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.

I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.

[an]

Good post tg. Since we all love #, here are the # for 92126 based on foreclosureradar.com:
current NOD: 162
current NOT: 225
REO: 67
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 85
last month sale: 49

For SFR in 92126:
current NOD: 111
current NOT: 160
REO: 28
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 50
last month sale: 27 (7 sold for under listing and 20 sold for over listing)

total population of over 70k
total households of 23k

Price have also risen about 10-15% from last year. Those are numbers, draw your own conclusion about the tsunami.

[an]

Good post tg. Since we all love #, here are the # for 92126 based on foreclosureradar.com:
current NOD: 162
current NOT: 225
REO: 67
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 85
last month sale: 49

For SFR in 92126:
current NOD: 111
current NOT: 160
REO: 28
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 50
last month sale: 27 (7 sold for under listing and 20 sold for over listing)

total population of over 70k
total households of 23k

Price have also risen about 10-15% from last year. Those are numbers, draw your own conclusion about the tsunami.

[an]

Good post tg. Since we all love #, here are the # for 92126 based on foreclosureradar.com:
current NOD: 162
current NOT: 225
REO: 67
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 85
last month sale: 49

For SFR in 92126:
current NOD: 111
current NOT: 160
REO: 28
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 50
last month sale: 27 (7 sold for under listing and 20 sold for over listing)

total population of over 70k
total households of 23k

Price have also risen about 10-15% from last year. Those are numbers, draw your own conclusion about the tsunami.

[an]

Good post tg. Since we all love #, here are the # for 92126 based on foreclosureradar.com:
current NOD: 162
current NOT: 225
REO: 67
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 85
last month sale: 49

For SFR in 92126:
current NOD: 111
current NOT: 160
REO: 28
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 50
last month sale: 27 (7 sold for under listing and 20 sold for over listing)

total population of over 70k
total households of 23k

Price have also risen about 10-15% from last year. Those are numbers, draw your own conclusion about the tsunami.

[an]

Good post tg. Since we all love #, here are the # for 92126 based on foreclosureradar.com:
current NOD: 162
current NOT: 225
REO: 67
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 85
last month sale: 49

For SFR in 92126:
current NOD: 111
current NOT: 160
REO: 28
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 50
last month sale: 27 (7 sold for under listing and 20 sold for over listing)

total population of over 70k
total households of 23k

Price have also risen about 10-15% from last year. Those are numbers, draw your own conclusion about the tsunami.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Well I concur with TG, Things have bounced off the bottom in TV for in most parts anyway, but there is little indication price will spike again soon.

I would add however that once the economy finally does start to add Job’s I think the homes TG is describing (ie.. three car over 2000 sqf) could take another leap to the 400K range based on new demand from household formation that has been put on hold
(Until the kids are finally able to find a Job that enables them to move their butt’s out of theirs parent’s house). And no I don’t expect these to buy the 400K homes but they will rent or buy something less which will enable someone else to buy the 400K home etc..

When will the economy finally start adding Job’s????

I guess that is the 64K question.

I would add that there are still a few super deals that will pop up every now and then if you look a little further out of TG’s Zip in TV.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Well I concur with TG, Things have bounced off the bottom in TV for in most parts anyway, but there is little indication price will spike again soon.

I would add however that once the economy finally does start to add Job’s I think the homes TG is describing (ie.. three car over 2000 sqf) could take another leap to the 400K range based on new demand from household formation that has been put on hold
(Until the kids are finally able to find a Job that enables them to move their butt’s out of theirs parent’s house). And no I don’t expect these to buy the 400K homes but they will rent or buy something less which will enable someone else to buy the 400K home etc..

When will the economy finally start adding Job’s????

I guess that is the 64K question.

I would add that there are still a few super deals that will pop up every now and then if you look a little further out of TG’s Zip in TV.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Well I concur with TG, Things have bounced off the bottom in TV for in most parts anyway, but there is little indication price will spike again soon.

I would add however that once the economy finally does start to add Job’s I think the homes TG is describing (ie.. three car over 2000 sqf) could take another leap to the 400K range based on new demand from household formation that has been put on hold
(Until the kids are finally able to find a Job that enables them to move their butt’s out of theirs parent’s house). And no I don’t expect these to buy the 400K homes but they will rent or buy something less which will enable someone else to buy the 400K home etc..

When will the economy finally start adding Job’s????

I guess that is the 64K question.

I would add that there are still a few super deals that will pop up every now and then if you look a little further out of TG’s Zip in TV.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Well I concur with TG, Things have bounced off the bottom in TV for in most parts anyway, but there is little indication price will spike again soon.

I would add however that once the economy finally does start to add Job’s I think the homes TG is describing (ie.. three car over 2000 sqf) could take another leap to the 400K range based on new demand from household formation that has been put on hold
(Until the kids are finally able to find a Job that enables them to move their butt’s out of theirs parent’s house). And no I don’t expect these to buy the 400K homes but they will rent or buy something less which will enable someone else to buy the 400K home etc..

When will the economy finally start adding Job’s????

I guess that is the 64K question.

I would add that there are still a few super deals that will pop up every now and then if you look a little further out of TG’s Zip in TV.

[Author]

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