Inflation – Has it arrived?

[CA renter]

[quote=socrattt][quote=sdduuuude]I think if inflation or deflation had arrived, you wouldn’t have to post this as a question.[/quote]

Well since many argue with indicators pointing to both we may not know where we are for some time. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few deflationary and inflationary cycles occur over the next 10 years with this perfect storm unraveling both nationally and globally. Interesting times ahead, to say the least. I just wish I had a magic 8 ball that could make it easier for me to predict where my money should go. In the meantime I am starting an ETF for farms and co-ops. Anyone in?[/quote]

It is the “big question” at this moment, isn’t it? Scary, because you can lose so much either way — in cash, or in other investments, everyone is taking great risks right now, and the risks are NOT being priced correctly in either direction, IMHO.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]The US in the 70s, for generic stagflation. (BTW if high inflation and low growth/employment never happen together, why is there a word to describe them happening together?)

Or, for an example of an inflation driven by a loss of confidence in the sovereign debt and currency, Iceland in 08-09.

I don’t know how to make an example gallop so I think I’m good.[/quote]

So example one is based upon a combination of cost push supply shocks and direct price controls.

Something to bear in mind when next our dealers cut off some vital resource (eg: iron, rare earth, oil).

Example two is a bit suspect because it required foreign-denominated debt to reach 6 times GDP.

For the US that would mean we would have to owe $86 Trillion dollars in RMB and Euros.

That would mean borrowing the sum equal to the total economy of China, Eurozone, and the US combined times two.

While I am sure there is a way to do that, this example really pushes the bounds of plausibility.

Rich, you have talked a lot about the supply-side component (eg: palettes of money onto street corners) to a coming inflationary event.

Do you see an example of this in the developed world in a relatively contemporary setting that we should look to?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]The US in the 70s, for generic stagflation. (BTW if high inflation and low growth/employment never happen together, why is there a word to describe them happening together?)

Or, for an example of an inflation driven by a loss of confidence in the sovereign debt and currency, Iceland in 08-09.

I don’t know how to make an example gallop so I think I’m good.[/quote]

So example one is based upon a combination of cost push supply shocks and direct price controls.

Something to bear in mind when next our dealers cut off some vital resource (eg: iron, rare earth, oil).

Example two is a bit suspect because it required foreign-denominated debt to reach 6 times GDP.

For the US that would mean we would have to owe $86 Trillion dollars in RMB and Euros.

That would mean borrowing the sum equal to the total economy of China, Eurozone, and the US combined times two.

While I am sure there is a way to do that, this example really pushes the bounds of plausibility.

Rich, you have talked a lot about the supply-side component (eg: palettes of money onto street corners) to a coming inflationary event.

Do you see an example of this in the developed world in a relatively contemporary setting that we should look to?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]The US in the 70s, for generic stagflation. (BTW if high inflation and low growth/employment never happen together, why is there a word to describe them happening together?)

Or, for an example of an inflation driven by a loss of confidence in the sovereign debt and currency, Iceland in 08-09.

I don’t know how to make an example gallop so I think I’m good.[/quote]

So example one is based upon a combination of cost push supply shocks and direct price controls.

Something to bear in mind when next our dealers cut off some vital resource (eg: iron, rare earth, oil).

Example two is a bit suspect because it required foreign-denominated debt to reach 6 times GDP.

For the US that would mean we would have to owe $86 Trillion dollars in RMB and Euros.

That would mean borrowing the sum equal to the total economy of China, Eurozone, and the US combined times two.

While I am sure there is a way to do that, this example really pushes the bounds of plausibility.

Rich, you have talked a lot about the supply-side component (eg: palettes of money onto street corners) to a coming inflationary event.

Do you see an example of this in the developed world in a relatively contemporary setting that we should look to?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]The US in the 70s, for generic stagflation. (BTW if high inflation and low growth/employment never happen together, why is there a word to describe them happening together?)

Or, for an example of an inflation driven by a loss of confidence in the sovereign debt and currency, Iceland in 08-09.

I don’t know how to make an example gallop so I think I’m good.[/quote]

So example one is based upon a combination of cost push supply shocks and direct price controls.

Something to bear in mind when next our dealers cut off some vital resource (eg: iron, rare earth, oil).

Example two is a bit suspect because it required foreign-denominated debt to reach 6 times GDP.

For the US that would mean we would have to owe $86 Trillion dollars in RMB and Euros.

That would mean borrowing the sum equal to the total economy of China, Eurozone, and the US combined times two.

While I am sure there is a way to do that, this example really pushes the bounds of plausibility.

Rich, you have talked a lot about the supply-side component (eg: palettes of money onto street corners) to a coming inflationary event.

Do you see an example of this in the developed world in a relatively contemporary setting that we should look to?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]The US in the 70s, for generic stagflation. (BTW if high inflation and low growth/employment never happen together, why is there a word to describe them happening together?)

Or, for an example of an inflation driven by a loss of confidence in the sovereign debt and currency, Iceland in 08-09.

I don’t know how to make an example gallop so I think I’m good.[/quote]

So example one is based upon a combination of cost push supply shocks and direct price controls.

Something to bear in mind when next our dealers cut off some vital resource (eg: iron, rare earth, oil).

Example two is a bit suspect because it required foreign-denominated debt to reach 6 times GDP.

For the US that would mean we would have to owe $86 Trillion dollars in RMB and Euros.

That would mean borrowing the sum equal to the total economy of China, Eurozone, and the US combined times two.

While I am sure there is a way to do that, this example really pushes the bounds of plausibility.

Rich, you have talked a lot about the supply-side component (eg: palettes of money onto street corners) to a coming inflationary event.

Do you see an example of this in the developed world in a relatively contemporary setting that we should look to?

[faterikcartman]

“Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704689804575536391713801732.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

[faterikcartman]

“Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704689804575536391713801732.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

[faterikcartman]

“Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704689804575536391713801732.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

[faterikcartman]

“Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704689804575536391713801732.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

[faterikcartman]

“Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704689804575536391713801732.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

[CA renter]

[quote=faterikcartman]”Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix”

http://online.wsj.com/article/…%5B/quote%5D

It is so disturbing that Fed officials can only see inflation as the solution to our problems. Has nobody ever considered the fact that *deflation* might actually the the cheaper, more efficient, less-painful (to working people) solution?

Asset price inflation increases the wealth disparity, which is at the core of our problems, IMHO. Deflation hurts the wealthy (capitalists who derive most of their income from investments/speculation) most, while inflation hurts wage workers most.

When they choose inflation, they are clearly showing to whom their allegiance lies.

[CA renter]

[quote=faterikcartman]”Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix”

http://online.wsj.com/article/…%5B/quote%5D

It is so disturbing that Fed officials can only see inflation as the solution to our problems. Has nobody ever considered the fact that *deflation* might actually the the cheaper, more efficient, less-painful (to working people) solution?

Asset price inflation increases the wealth disparity, which is at the core of our problems, IMHO. Deflation hurts the wealthy (capitalists who derive most of their income from investments/speculation) most, while inflation hurts wage workers most.

When they choose inflation, they are clearly showing to whom their allegiance lies.

[CA renter]

[quote=faterikcartman]”Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix”

http://online.wsj.com/article/…%5B/quote%5D

It is so disturbing that Fed officials can only see inflation as the solution to our problems. Has nobody ever considered the fact that *deflation* might actually the the cheaper, more efficient, less-painful (to working people) solution?

Asset price inflation increases the wealth disparity, which is at the core of our problems, IMHO. Deflation hurts the wealthy (capitalists who derive most of their income from investments/speculation) most, while inflation hurts wage workers most.

When they choose inflation, they are clearly showing to whom their allegiance lies.

[CA renter]

[quote=faterikcartman]”Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix”

http://online.wsj.com/article/…%5B/quote%5D

It is so disturbing that Fed officials can only see inflation as the solution to our problems. Has nobody ever considered the fact that *deflation* might actually the the cheaper, more efficient, less-painful (to working people) solution?

Asset price inflation increases the wealth disparity, which is at the core of our problems, IMHO. Deflation hurts the wealthy (capitalists who derive most of their income from investments/speculation) most, while inflation hurts wage workers most.

When they choose inflation, they are clearly showing to whom their allegiance lies.

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