Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Inflation – Has it arrived?
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davelj.
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February 27, 2011 at 9:20 PM #673074February 27, 2011 at 10:18 PM #671922
Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=sdduuuude]
I appreciate the point that it is the kind of inflation that matters, but I’m not so sure it is what most would consider inflation.I’m giving you a hard time because it is not a useful prediction. After three years, certainly some things will rise in price while others will fall. With a prediction like “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” you can’t go wrong (and I’m not so sure that really constitutes a general “inflation” call). [/quote]
That’s not what I said. I gave three different categories of things that I think will inflate (the implication was for Americans, though I don’t think I mentioned that):
– things people need
– things that are scarce
– things that are globally tradedThis is not what you you say in your paraphrased quote of me. Sorry if I wasn’t clear, but now that I’ve cleared it up, I hope that you can see that this isn’t the tautology you are implying. There are plenty of people who disagree with this so I don’t really see how you can position it as being an obvious or “can’t go wrong” statement
As for whether it constitutes a “general inflation call”… why would I care about that? I’m not interested in labels, I’m interested in trying to figure out what will happen.
[quote]
List the specific things that will inflate and the specific things that won’t and specific things that will deflate – get it right and I’ll be impressed.
[/quote]Inflate more (this is all for Americans using dollars, and it is over a multiple-year timeframe… this is not a short term forecast):
– energy
– food
– imports
– healthcare
– hard assetsInflate less:
– services
– discretionary goods
– rentsInflate even less or maybe deflate:
– real estateDeflate:
– bonds[quote]
But saying “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” deserves me giving you a hard time because as soon as you start picking a specific basket of goods instead of a general basket of goods, you are talking about something other than inflation. You are then talking about specific commodity prices.
[/quote]No, I am talking about a rise in the costs that matter most to people. If the price of everything you need rises by 10%, and the price of everything you could buy but don’t need drops by 10%, that’s not a wash.
Price movements in the things that people need are more important in aggregate. And in the end, when it comes to whether people feel there is inflation or not, I believe they will look at what is happening with the things that they need. I agree that this might not come through in the CPI, and a lot of people pay attention to that, but if the most important things they buy keep going up and up, I suspect that they will start to discount the importance of the CPI over time.
February 27, 2011 at 10:18 PM #671984Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=sdduuuude]
I appreciate the point that it is the kind of inflation that matters, but I’m not so sure it is what most would consider inflation.I’m giving you a hard time because it is not a useful prediction. After three years, certainly some things will rise in price while others will fall. With a prediction like “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” you can’t go wrong (and I’m not so sure that really constitutes a general “inflation” call). [/quote]
That’s not what I said. I gave three different categories of things that I think will inflate (the implication was for Americans, though I don’t think I mentioned that):
– things people need
– things that are scarce
– things that are globally tradedThis is not what you you say in your paraphrased quote of me. Sorry if I wasn’t clear, but now that I’ve cleared it up, I hope that you can see that this isn’t the tautology you are implying. There are plenty of people who disagree with this so I don’t really see how you can position it as being an obvious or “can’t go wrong” statement
As for whether it constitutes a “general inflation call”… why would I care about that? I’m not interested in labels, I’m interested in trying to figure out what will happen.
[quote]
List the specific things that will inflate and the specific things that won’t and specific things that will deflate – get it right and I’ll be impressed.
[/quote]Inflate more (this is all for Americans using dollars, and it is over a multiple-year timeframe… this is not a short term forecast):
– energy
– food
– imports
– healthcare
– hard assetsInflate less:
– services
– discretionary goods
– rentsInflate even less or maybe deflate:
– real estateDeflate:
– bonds[quote]
But saying “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” deserves me giving you a hard time because as soon as you start picking a specific basket of goods instead of a general basket of goods, you are talking about something other than inflation. You are then talking about specific commodity prices.
[/quote]No, I am talking about a rise in the costs that matter most to people. If the price of everything you need rises by 10%, and the price of everything you could buy but don’t need drops by 10%, that’s not a wash.
Price movements in the things that people need are more important in aggregate. And in the end, when it comes to whether people feel there is inflation or not, I believe they will look at what is happening with the things that they need. I agree that this might not come through in the CPI, and a lot of people pay attention to that, but if the most important things they buy keep going up and up, I suspect that they will start to discount the importance of the CPI over time.
February 27, 2011 at 10:18 PM #672593Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=sdduuuude]
I appreciate the point that it is the kind of inflation that matters, but I’m not so sure it is what most would consider inflation.I’m giving you a hard time because it is not a useful prediction. After three years, certainly some things will rise in price while others will fall. With a prediction like “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” you can’t go wrong (and I’m not so sure that really constitutes a general “inflation” call). [/quote]
That’s not what I said. I gave three different categories of things that I think will inflate (the implication was for Americans, though I don’t think I mentioned that):
– things people need
– things that are scarce
– things that are globally tradedThis is not what you you say in your paraphrased quote of me. Sorry if I wasn’t clear, but now that I’ve cleared it up, I hope that you can see that this isn’t the tautology you are implying. There are plenty of people who disagree with this so I don’t really see how you can position it as being an obvious or “can’t go wrong” statement
As for whether it constitutes a “general inflation call”… why would I care about that? I’m not interested in labels, I’m interested in trying to figure out what will happen.
[quote]
List the specific things that will inflate and the specific things that won’t and specific things that will deflate – get it right and I’ll be impressed.
[/quote]Inflate more (this is all for Americans using dollars, and it is over a multiple-year timeframe… this is not a short term forecast):
– energy
– food
– imports
– healthcare
– hard assetsInflate less:
– services
– discretionary goods
– rentsInflate even less or maybe deflate:
– real estateDeflate:
– bonds[quote]
But saying “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” deserves me giving you a hard time because as soon as you start picking a specific basket of goods instead of a general basket of goods, you are talking about something other than inflation. You are then talking about specific commodity prices.
[/quote]No, I am talking about a rise in the costs that matter most to people. If the price of everything you need rises by 10%, and the price of everything you could buy but don’t need drops by 10%, that’s not a wash.
Price movements in the things that people need are more important in aggregate. And in the end, when it comes to whether people feel there is inflation or not, I believe they will look at what is happening with the things that they need. I agree that this might not come through in the CPI, and a lot of people pay attention to that, but if the most important things they buy keep going up and up, I suspect that they will start to discount the importance of the CPI over time.
February 27, 2011 at 10:18 PM #672731Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=sdduuuude]
I appreciate the point that it is the kind of inflation that matters, but I’m not so sure it is what most would consider inflation.I’m giving you a hard time because it is not a useful prediction. After three years, certainly some things will rise in price while others will fall. With a prediction like “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” you can’t go wrong (and I’m not so sure that really constitutes a general “inflation” call). [/quote]
That’s not what I said. I gave three different categories of things that I think will inflate (the implication was for Americans, though I don’t think I mentioned that):
– things people need
– things that are scarce
– things that are globally tradedThis is not what you you say in your paraphrased quote of me. Sorry if I wasn’t clear, but now that I’ve cleared it up, I hope that you can see that this isn’t the tautology you are implying. There are plenty of people who disagree with this so I don’t really see how you can position it as being an obvious or “can’t go wrong” statement
As for whether it constitutes a “general inflation call”… why would I care about that? I’m not interested in labels, I’m interested in trying to figure out what will happen.
[quote]
List the specific things that will inflate and the specific things that won’t and specific things that will deflate – get it right and I’ll be impressed.
[/quote]Inflate more (this is all for Americans using dollars, and it is over a multiple-year timeframe… this is not a short term forecast):
– energy
– food
– imports
– healthcare
– hard assetsInflate less:
– services
– discretionary goods
– rentsInflate even less or maybe deflate:
– real estateDeflate:
– bonds[quote]
But saying “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” deserves me giving you a hard time because as soon as you start picking a specific basket of goods instead of a general basket of goods, you are talking about something other than inflation. You are then talking about specific commodity prices.
[/quote]No, I am talking about a rise in the costs that matter most to people. If the price of everything you need rises by 10%, and the price of everything you could buy but don’t need drops by 10%, that’s not a wash.
Price movements in the things that people need are more important in aggregate. And in the end, when it comes to whether people feel there is inflation or not, I believe they will look at what is happening with the things that they need. I agree that this might not come through in the CPI, and a lot of people pay attention to that, but if the most important things they buy keep going up and up, I suspect that they will start to discount the importance of the CPI over time.
February 27, 2011 at 10:18 PM #673079Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=sdduuuude]
I appreciate the point that it is the kind of inflation that matters, but I’m not so sure it is what most would consider inflation.I’m giving you a hard time because it is not a useful prediction. After three years, certainly some things will rise in price while others will fall. With a prediction like “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” you can’t go wrong (and I’m not so sure that really constitutes a general “inflation” call). [/quote]
That’s not what I said. I gave three different categories of things that I think will inflate (the implication was for Americans, though I don’t think I mentioned that):
– things people need
– things that are scarce
– things that are globally tradedThis is not what you you say in your paraphrased quote of me. Sorry if I wasn’t clear, but now that I’ve cleared it up, I hope that you can see that this isn’t the tautology you are implying. There are plenty of people who disagree with this so I don’t really see how you can position it as being an obvious or “can’t go wrong” statement
As for whether it constitutes a “general inflation call”… why would I care about that? I’m not interested in labels, I’m interested in trying to figure out what will happen.
[quote]
List the specific things that will inflate and the specific things that won’t and specific things that will deflate – get it right and I’ll be impressed.
[/quote]Inflate more (this is all for Americans using dollars, and it is over a multiple-year timeframe… this is not a short term forecast):
– energy
– food
– imports
– healthcare
– hard assetsInflate less:
– services
– discretionary goods
– rentsInflate even less or maybe deflate:
– real estateDeflate:
– bonds[quote]
But saying “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” deserves me giving you a hard time because as soon as you start picking a specific basket of goods instead of a general basket of goods, you are talking about something other than inflation. You are then talking about specific commodity prices.
[/quote]No, I am talking about a rise in the costs that matter most to people. If the price of everything you need rises by 10%, and the price of everything you could buy but don’t need drops by 10%, that’s not a wash.
Price movements in the things that people need are more important in aggregate. And in the end, when it comes to whether people feel there is inflation or not, I believe they will look at what is happening with the things that they need. I agree that this might not come through in the CPI, and a lot of people pay attention to that, but if the most important things they buy keep going up and up, I suspect that they will start to discount the importance of the CPI over time.
February 27, 2011 at 10:25 PM #671927Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=sdduuuude]
And … which inflation measure shall you use to determine if your inflation call is correct ?[/quote]If you need a measure to determine if my call was correct, then my call will have been incorrect.
In the scenario that I am suggesting, nobody will have any doubt that there has been inflation.
February 27, 2011 at 10:25 PM #671989Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=sdduuuude]
And … which inflation measure shall you use to determine if your inflation call is correct ?[/quote]If you need a measure to determine if my call was correct, then my call will have been incorrect.
In the scenario that I am suggesting, nobody will have any doubt that there has been inflation.
February 27, 2011 at 10:25 PM #672598Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=sdduuuude]
And … which inflation measure shall you use to determine if your inflation call is correct ?[/quote]If you need a measure to determine if my call was correct, then my call will have been incorrect.
In the scenario that I am suggesting, nobody will have any doubt that there has been inflation.
February 27, 2011 at 10:25 PM #672736Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=sdduuuude]
And … which inflation measure shall you use to determine if your inflation call is correct ?[/quote]If you need a measure to determine if my call was correct, then my call will have been incorrect.
In the scenario that I am suggesting, nobody will have any doubt that there has been inflation.
February 27, 2011 at 10:25 PM #673084Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=sdduuuude]
And … which inflation measure shall you use to determine if your inflation call is correct ?[/quote]If you need a measure to determine if my call was correct, then my call will have been incorrect.
In the scenario that I am suggesting, nobody will have any doubt that there has been inflation.
February 27, 2011 at 11:18 PM #671932briansd1
Guest[quote=SD Realtor] I cannot speak for CAR and I am certainly not the fatalist that Arraya is,
[/quote]I don’t believe that Arraya is a fatalist. A fatalist is just resigned to whatever will be.
Arraya clearly wants a hard economic crash that causes us to reexamine our capitalist/consumerist/materialistic values.
[quote=SD Realtor]
however I do share the opinion that as long as the govt keeps telling us how they saved the world, many people will believe it, cheer for it, and go happily on believing that was the best way to do it and rubber stamping future similar behavior.[/quote]I’m not saying that bailouts were the best things to happen or that they were fair. I’m just saying that they worked in restoring economic growth.
February 27, 2011 at 11:18 PM #671994Guest[quote=SD Realtor] I cannot speak for CAR and I am certainly not the fatalist that Arraya is,
[/quote]I don’t believe that Arraya is a fatalist. A fatalist is just resigned to whatever will be.
Arraya clearly wants a hard economic crash that causes us to reexamine our capitalist/consumerist/materialistic values.
[quote=SD Realtor]
however I do share the opinion that as long as the govt keeps telling us how they saved the world, many people will believe it, cheer for it, and go happily on believing that was the best way to do it and rubber stamping future similar behavior.[/quote]I’m not saying that bailouts were the best things to happen or that they were fair. I’m just saying that they worked in restoring economic growth.
February 27, 2011 at 11:18 PM #672603Guest[quote=SD Realtor] I cannot speak for CAR and I am certainly not the fatalist that Arraya is,
[/quote]I don’t believe that Arraya is a fatalist. A fatalist is just resigned to whatever will be.
Arraya clearly wants a hard economic crash that causes us to reexamine our capitalist/consumerist/materialistic values.
[quote=SD Realtor]
however I do share the opinion that as long as the govt keeps telling us how they saved the world, many people will believe it, cheer for it, and go happily on believing that was the best way to do it and rubber stamping future similar behavior.[/quote]I’m not saying that bailouts were the best things to happen or that they were fair. I’m just saying that they worked in restoring economic growth.
February 27, 2011 at 11:18 PM #672742Guest[quote=SD Realtor] I cannot speak for CAR and I am certainly not the fatalist that Arraya is,
[/quote]I don’t believe that Arraya is a fatalist. A fatalist is just resigned to whatever will be.
Arraya clearly wants a hard economic crash that causes us to reexamine our capitalist/consumerist/materialistic values.
[quote=SD Realtor]
however I do share the opinion that as long as the govt keeps telling us how they saved the world, many people will believe it, cheer for it, and go happily on believing that was the best way to do it and rubber stamping future similar behavior.[/quote]I’m not saying that bailouts were the best things to happen or that they were fair. I’m just saying that they worked in restoring economic growth.
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