Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Inflation – Has it arrived?
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February 24, 2011 at 4:08 PM #671948February 24, 2011 at 4:08 PM #670810Rich ToscanoKeymaster
[quote=CA renter]
Ultimately, what Joe Sixpack thinks doesn’t matter. The puppet politicians care even more about their financial masters, because they know that as long as their financiers are behind them, they can send whatever message out to the sheeple that “this or that” is necessary, and they have no choice, etc., just like they did with the bailouts. And the sheeple will have no choice but to choose between the puppet on the right hand, or the puppet on the left hand. Both puppets serve the same master.[/quote]I agree that the financial lobby has way too much influence, but I firmly disagree that what J6P thinks “doesn’t matter”… these are the people who vote, and politicians care only about re-election.
However, that’s beside the point… even under your interpretation, WHY would they allow a deflation to happen? The banks made lots of money when there was inflation, were brought to the brink of disaster while there was deflation, and then started making huge money again when inflation came back. If the banks are running the show, we know which option they will choose.
Deflation has no constituency! That’s why it won’t happen (at least not for any sustained period, or until we move to another system entirely).
February 24, 2011 at 4:08 PM #670871Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=CA renter]
Ultimately, what Joe Sixpack thinks doesn’t matter. The puppet politicians care even more about their financial masters, because they know that as long as their financiers are behind them, they can send whatever message out to the sheeple that “this or that” is necessary, and they have no choice, etc., just like they did with the bailouts. And the sheeple will have no choice but to choose between the puppet on the right hand, or the puppet on the left hand. Both puppets serve the same master.[/quote]I agree that the financial lobby has way too much influence, but I firmly disagree that what J6P thinks “doesn’t matter”… these are the people who vote, and politicians care only about re-election.
However, that’s beside the point… even under your interpretation, WHY would they allow a deflation to happen? The banks made lots of money when there was inflation, were brought to the brink of disaster while there was deflation, and then started making huge money again when inflation came back. If the banks are running the show, we know which option they will choose.
Deflation has no constituency! That’s why it won’t happen (at least not for any sustained period, or until we move to another system entirely).
February 24, 2011 at 4:08 PM #671480Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=CA renter]
Ultimately, what Joe Sixpack thinks doesn’t matter. The puppet politicians care even more about their financial masters, because they know that as long as their financiers are behind them, they can send whatever message out to the sheeple that “this or that” is necessary, and they have no choice, etc., just like they did with the bailouts. And the sheeple will have no choice but to choose between the puppet on the right hand, or the puppet on the left hand. Both puppets serve the same master.[/quote]I agree that the financial lobby has way too much influence, but I firmly disagree that what J6P thinks “doesn’t matter”… these are the people who vote, and politicians care only about re-election.
However, that’s beside the point… even under your interpretation, WHY would they allow a deflation to happen? The banks made lots of money when there was inflation, were brought to the brink of disaster while there was deflation, and then started making huge money again when inflation came back. If the banks are running the show, we know which option they will choose.
Deflation has no constituency! That’s why it won’t happen (at least not for any sustained period, or until we move to another system entirely).
February 24, 2011 at 4:08 PM #671620Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=CA renter]
Ultimately, what Joe Sixpack thinks doesn’t matter. The puppet politicians care even more about their financial masters, because they know that as long as their financiers are behind them, they can send whatever message out to the sheeple that “this or that” is necessary, and they have no choice, etc., just like they did with the bailouts. And the sheeple will have no choice but to choose between the puppet on the right hand, or the puppet on the left hand. Both puppets serve the same master.[/quote]I agree that the financial lobby has way too much influence, but I firmly disagree that what J6P thinks “doesn’t matter”… these are the people who vote, and politicians care only about re-election.
However, that’s beside the point… even under your interpretation, WHY would they allow a deflation to happen? The banks made lots of money when there was inflation, were brought to the brink of disaster while there was deflation, and then started making huge money again when inflation came back. If the banks are running the show, we know which option they will choose.
Deflation has no constituency! That’s why it won’t happen (at least not for any sustained period, or until we move to another system entirely).
February 24, 2011 at 4:08 PM #671963Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=CA renter]
Ultimately, what Joe Sixpack thinks doesn’t matter. The puppet politicians care even more about their financial masters, because they know that as long as their financiers are behind them, they can send whatever message out to the sheeple that “this or that” is necessary, and they have no choice, etc., just like they did with the bailouts. And the sheeple will have no choice but to choose between the puppet on the right hand, or the puppet on the left hand. Both puppets serve the same master.[/quote]I agree that the financial lobby has way too much influence, but I firmly disagree that what J6P thinks “doesn’t matter”… these are the people who vote, and politicians care only about re-election.
However, that’s beside the point… even under your interpretation, WHY would they allow a deflation to happen? The banks made lots of money when there was inflation, were brought to the brink of disaster while there was deflation, and then started making huge money again when inflation came back. If the banks are running the show, we know which option they will choose.
Deflation has no constituency! That’s why it won’t happen (at least not for any sustained period, or until we move to another system entirely).
February 24, 2011 at 4:18 PM #670815CA renterParticipantThey suffered during the initial deflation because they weren’t properly prepared. If they are in cash when the deflation happens (and there is a LOT of cash on the sidelines), they win. They might take some losses for a bit, but they know that there will be some fantastic opportunities to deploy that cash when deflation hits.
Inflation is not an option at this point, barring a full-fledged currency crisis (not really an “option,” but something that might result as their inflationary tactics backfire on them). The Fed (and other central banks) is starving people around the world, and causing massive social unrest. I think they have pushed on this string as much as they possibly can, and it’s getting ugly.
I do understand that this is a contrarian viewpoint, and have always admitted that this is not an easy thing to predict. It’s just that their “inflation” is going into all the wrong places. Much of the inflationary run-up is being caused by speculation — all that cash is chasing assets and investments around the world because the Fed has foolishly forced rates into negative territory. At some point, actual end-users need to buy that stuff, and they are out of money. Of course, the speculators will buy and sell it to one another for awhile, but that cannot continue indefinitely. It is at that point — when the speculators realize there is no end demand for all those overpriced assets — that the deflation will happen.
February 24, 2011 at 4:18 PM #670876CA renterParticipantThey suffered during the initial deflation because they weren’t properly prepared. If they are in cash when the deflation happens (and there is a LOT of cash on the sidelines), they win. They might take some losses for a bit, but they know that there will be some fantastic opportunities to deploy that cash when deflation hits.
Inflation is not an option at this point, barring a full-fledged currency crisis (not really an “option,” but something that might result as their inflationary tactics backfire on them). The Fed (and other central banks) is starving people around the world, and causing massive social unrest. I think they have pushed on this string as much as they possibly can, and it’s getting ugly.
I do understand that this is a contrarian viewpoint, and have always admitted that this is not an easy thing to predict. It’s just that their “inflation” is going into all the wrong places. Much of the inflationary run-up is being caused by speculation — all that cash is chasing assets and investments around the world because the Fed has foolishly forced rates into negative territory. At some point, actual end-users need to buy that stuff, and they are out of money. Of course, the speculators will buy and sell it to one another for awhile, but that cannot continue indefinitely. It is at that point — when the speculators realize there is no end demand for all those overpriced assets — that the deflation will happen.
February 24, 2011 at 4:18 PM #671485CA renterParticipantThey suffered during the initial deflation because they weren’t properly prepared. If they are in cash when the deflation happens (and there is a LOT of cash on the sidelines), they win. They might take some losses for a bit, but they know that there will be some fantastic opportunities to deploy that cash when deflation hits.
Inflation is not an option at this point, barring a full-fledged currency crisis (not really an “option,” but something that might result as their inflationary tactics backfire on them). The Fed (and other central banks) is starving people around the world, and causing massive social unrest. I think they have pushed on this string as much as they possibly can, and it’s getting ugly.
I do understand that this is a contrarian viewpoint, and have always admitted that this is not an easy thing to predict. It’s just that their “inflation” is going into all the wrong places. Much of the inflationary run-up is being caused by speculation — all that cash is chasing assets and investments around the world because the Fed has foolishly forced rates into negative territory. At some point, actual end-users need to buy that stuff, and they are out of money. Of course, the speculators will buy and sell it to one another for awhile, but that cannot continue indefinitely. It is at that point — when the speculators realize there is no end demand for all those overpriced assets — that the deflation will happen.
February 24, 2011 at 4:18 PM #671625CA renterParticipantThey suffered during the initial deflation because they weren’t properly prepared. If they are in cash when the deflation happens (and there is a LOT of cash on the sidelines), they win. They might take some losses for a bit, but they know that there will be some fantastic opportunities to deploy that cash when deflation hits.
Inflation is not an option at this point, barring a full-fledged currency crisis (not really an “option,” but something that might result as their inflationary tactics backfire on them). The Fed (and other central banks) is starving people around the world, and causing massive social unrest. I think they have pushed on this string as much as they possibly can, and it’s getting ugly.
I do understand that this is a contrarian viewpoint, and have always admitted that this is not an easy thing to predict. It’s just that their “inflation” is going into all the wrong places. Much of the inflationary run-up is being caused by speculation — all that cash is chasing assets and investments around the world because the Fed has foolishly forced rates into negative territory. At some point, actual end-users need to buy that stuff, and they are out of money. Of course, the speculators will buy and sell it to one another for awhile, but that cannot continue indefinitely. It is at that point — when the speculators realize there is no end demand for all those overpriced assets — that the deflation will happen.
February 24, 2011 at 4:18 PM #671968CA renterParticipantThey suffered during the initial deflation because they weren’t properly prepared. If they are in cash when the deflation happens (and there is a LOT of cash on the sidelines), they win. They might take some losses for a bit, but they know that there will be some fantastic opportunities to deploy that cash when deflation hits.
Inflation is not an option at this point, barring a full-fledged currency crisis (not really an “option,” but something that might result as their inflationary tactics backfire on them). The Fed (and other central banks) is starving people around the world, and causing massive social unrest. I think they have pushed on this string as much as they possibly can, and it’s getting ugly.
I do understand that this is a contrarian viewpoint, and have always admitted that this is not an easy thing to predict. It’s just that their “inflation” is going into all the wrong places. Much of the inflationary run-up is being caused by speculation — all that cash is chasing assets and investments around the world because the Fed has foolishly forced rates into negative territory. At some point, actual end-users need to buy that stuff, and they are out of money. Of course, the speculators will buy and sell it to one another for awhile, but that cannot continue indefinitely. It is at that point — when the speculators realize there is no end demand for all those overpriced assets — that the deflation will happen.
February 24, 2011 at 6:09 PM #670845ArrayaParticipant[quote=Rich Toscano]
However, that’s beside the point… even under your interpretation, WHY would they allow a deflation to happen? The banks made lots of money when there was inflation, were brought to the brink of disaster while there was deflation, and then started making huge money again when inflation came back. If the banks are running the show, we know which option they will choose.
.[/quote]It’s not necessarily “allowing deflation to happen” it’s getting the banks out from under the crushing weight of falling RE values with government support and once they are clear, letting it go, because they have to for one reason or another. There is a line somewhere to what they are willing or able to do. I have no idea where it is, and they may not either, but they have been throwing out signals of reducing support.
[quote=Rich Toscano]
Deflation has no constituency! .[/quote]But isn’t reducing debt and cutting spending deflationary. Seems there is a lot of people calling for that. There is a certain “party” calling for a number of deflationary measures. And they seem to have been popular this last election.
February 24, 2011 at 6:09 PM #670906ArrayaParticipant[quote=Rich Toscano]
However, that’s beside the point… even under your interpretation, WHY would they allow a deflation to happen? The banks made lots of money when there was inflation, were brought to the brink of disaster while there was deflation, and then started making huge money again when inflation came back. If the banks are running the show, we know which option they will choose.
.[/quote]It’s not necessarily “allowing deflation to happen” it’s getting the banks out from under the crushing weight of falling RE values with government support and once they are clear, letting it go, because they have to for one reason or another. There is a line somewhere to what they are willing or able to do. I have no idea where it is, and they may not either, but they have been throwing out signals of reducing support.
[quote=Rich Toscano]
Deflation has no constituency! .[/quote]But isn’t reducing debt and cutting spending deflationary. Seems there is a lot of people calling for that. There is a certain “party” calling for a number of deflationary measures. And they seem to have been popular this last election.
February 24, 2011 at 6:09 PM #671515ArrayaParticipant[quote=Rich Toscano]
However, that’s beside the point… even under your interpretation, WHY would they allow a deflation to happen? The banks made lots of money when there was inflation, were brought to the brink of disaster while there was deflation, and then started making huge money again when inflation came back. If the banks are running the show, we know which option they will choose.
.[/quote]It’s not necessarily “allowing deflation to happen” it’s getting the banks out from under the crushing weight of falling RE values with government support and once they are clear, letting it go, because they have to for one reason or another. There is a line somewhere to what they are willing or able to do. I have no idea where it is, and they may not either, but they have been throwing out signals of reducing support.
[quote=Rich Toscano]
Deflation has no constituency! .[/quote]But isn’t reducing debt and cutting spending deflationary. Seems there is a lot of people calling for that. There is a certain “party” calling for a number of deflationary measures. And they seem to have been popular this last election.
February 24, 2011 at 6:09 PM #671655ArrayaParticipant[quote=Rich Toscano]
However, that’s beside the point… even under your interpretation, WHY would they allow a deflation to happen? The banks made lots of money when there was inflation, were brought to the brink of disaster while there was deflation, and then started making huge money again when inflation came back. If the banks are running the show, we know which option they will choose.
.[/quote]It’s not necessarily “allowing deflation to happen” it’s getting the banks out from under the crushing weight of falling RE values with government support and once they are clear, letting it go, because they have to for one reason or another. There is a line somewhere to what they are willing or able to do. I have no idea where it is, and they may not either, but they have been throwing out signals of reducing support.
[quote=Rich Toscano]
Deflation has no constituency! .[/quote]But isn’t reducing debt and cutting spending deflationary. Seems there is a lot of people calling for that. There is a certain “party” calling for a number of deflationary measures. And they seem to have been popular this last election.
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