Inflation – Has it arrived?

[raty4R]

cereal boxes getting smaller and even the bag inside is smaller, yet the price is higher. 2.50+ for a roll of paper towels wth?? Last year Bud 18 packs were $12.99 now $18.99(yeah I know buy on “sale”) etc.
Take a look at the commodities futures and decide if there is inflation coming or not.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=w1

Paraphrased from another blog, but I agree.
“Overpriced assets continue to fall (homes, cars, durbable goods, etc.). Relatively undervalued assets that saw little price appreciation from 1980-2002 such as commodities continue to rise. These cycles come and go. Interest rates have been hopelessly skewed (or screwed) by $213 TRILL in US bank otc interest rate swaps created over the past 20 yrs. This has caused massive malinvestment in things that should never have been….and a lack of investment in things that should have been. If you’re waiting for higher interest rates to tell you there is inflation in commodity prices, it might be a long wait. Don’t count on China and Asia in general to continue to allow our inflation to be exported to them. That worked in the 1980’s and 90’s just fine. But as Asia continues to grow their industrial base expect them to continue to require a much higher percentage of their goods and services to stay home. And as this growth occurs, so do wages and cost of living which means cheaper exports for the US becoming a thing of the past, hence higher priced imports, especially if tariffs are added.”

[CA renter]

[quote=martink110]cereal boxes getting smaller and even the bag inside is smaller, yet the price is higher. 2.50+ for a roll of paper towels wth?? Last year Bud 18 packs were $12.99 now $18.99(yeah I know buy on “sale”) etc.
Take a look at the commodities futures and decide if there is inflation coming or not.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=w1

Paraphrased from another blog, but I agree.
“Overpriced assets continue to fall (homes, cars, durbable goods, etc.). Relatively undervalued assets that saw little price appreciation from 1980-2002 such as commodities continue to rise. These cycles come and go. Interest rates have been hopelessly skewed (or screwed) by $213 TRILL in US bank otc interest rate swaps created over the past 20 yrs. This has caused massive malinvestment in things that should never have been….and a lack of investment in things that should have been. If you’re waiting for higher interest rates to tell you there is inflation in commodity prices, it might be a long wait. Don’t count on China and Asia in general to continue to allow our inflation to be exported to them. That worked in the 1980’s and 90’s just fine. But as Asia continues to grow their industrial base expect them to continue to require a much higher percentage of their goods and services to stay home. And as this growth occurs, so do wages and cost of living which means cheaper exports for the US becoming a thing of the past, hence higher priced imports, especially if tariffs are added.”[/quote]

This is a VERY good point (and it’s why I detest derivatives so much). It means all the usual signals are malfunctioning. Nobody knows what’s going on because everything is dramatically mispriced as a result of these derivatives. If derivatives were to be banned tomorrow, it would be interesting to see how prices of everything would shift. IMHO, huge moves would occur.

[CA renter]

[quote=martink110]cereal boxes getting smaller and even the bag inside is smaller, yet the price is higher. 2.50+ for a roll of paper towels wth?? Last year Bud 18 packs were $12.99 now $18.99(yeah I know buy on “sale”) etc.
Take a look at the commodities futures and decide if there is inflation coming or not.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=w1

Paraphrased from another blog, but I agree.
“Overpriced assets continue to fall (homes, cars, durbable goods, etc.). Relatively undervalued assets that saw little price appreciation from 1980-2002 such as commodities continue to rise. These cycles come and go. Interest rates have been hopelessly skewed (or screwed) by $213 TRILL in US bank otc interest rate swaps created over the past 20 yrs. This has caused massive malinvestment in things that should never have been….and a lack of investment in things that should have been. If you’re waiting for higher interest rates to tell you there is inflation in commodity prices, it might be a long wait. Don’t count on China and Asia in general to continue to allow our inflation to be exported to them. That worked in the 1980’s and 90’s just fine. But as Asia continues to grow their industrial base expect them to continue to require a much higher percentage of their goods and services to stay home. And as this growth occurs, so do wages and cost of living which means cheaper exports for the US becoming a thing of the past, hence higher priced imports, especially if tariffs are added.”[/quote]

This is a VERY good point (and it’s why I detest derivatives so much). It means all the usual signals are malfunctioning. Nobody knows what’s going on because everything is dramatically mispriced as a result of these derivatives. If derivatives were to be banned tomorrow, it would be interesting to see how prices of everything would shift. IMHO, huge moves would occur.

[CA renter]

[quote=martink110]cereal boxes getting smaller and even the bag inside is smaller, yet the price is higher. 2.50+ for a roll of paper towels wth?? Last year Bud 18 packs were $12.99 now $18.99(yeah I know buy on “sale”) etc.
Take a look at the commodities futures and decide if there is inflation coming or not.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=w1

Paraphrased from another blog, but I agree.
“Overpriced assets continue to fall (homes, cars, durbable goods, etc.). Relatively undervalued assets that saw little price appreciation from 1980-2002 such as commodities continue to rise. These cycles come and go. Interest rates have been hopelessly skewed (or screwed) by $213 TRILL in US bank otc interest rate swaps created over the past 20 yrs. This has caused massive malinvestment in things that should never have been….and a lack of investment in things that should have been. If you’re waiting for higher interest rates to tell you there is inflation in commodity prices, it might be a long wait. Don’t count on China and Asia in general to continue to allow our inflation to be exported to them. That worked in the 1980’s and 90’s just fine. But as Asia continues to grow their industrial base expect them to continue to require a much higher percentage of their goods and services to stay home. And as this growth occurs, so do wages and cost of living which means cheaper exports for the US becoming a thing of the past, hence higher priced imports, especially if tariffs are added.”[/quote]

This is a VERY good point (and it’s why I detest derivatives so much). It means all the usual signals are malfunctioning. Nobody knows what’s going on because everything is dramatically mispriced as a result of these derivatives. If derivatives were to be banned tomorrow, it would be interesting to see how prices of everything would shift. IMHO, huge moves would occur.

[CA renter]

[quote=martink110]cereal boxes getting smaller and even the bag inside is smaller, yet the price is higher. 2.50+ for a roll of paper towels wth?? Last year Bud 18 packs were $12.99 now $18.99(yeah I know buy on “sale”) etc.
Take a look at the commodities futures and decide if there is inflation coming or not.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=w1

Paraphrased from another blog, but I agree.
“Overpriced assets continue to fall (homes, cars, durbable goods, etc.). Relatively undervalued assets that saw little price appreciation from 1980-2002 such as commodities continue to rise. These cycles come and go. Interest rates have been hopelessly skewed (or screwed) by $213 TRILL in US bank otc interest rate swaps created over the past 20 yrs. This has caused massive malinvestment in things that should never have been….and a lack of investment in things that should have been. If you’re waiting for higher interest rates to tell you there is inflation in commodity prices, it might be a long wait. Don’t count on China and Asia in general to continue to allow our inflation to be exported to them. That worked in the 1980’s and 90’s just fine. But as Asia continues to grow their industrial base expect them to continue to require a much higher percentage of their goods and services to stay home. And as this growth occurs, so do wages and cost of living which means cheaper exports for the US becoming a thing of the past, hence higher priced imports, especially if tariffs are added.”[/quote]

This is a VERY good point (and it’s why I detest derivatives so much). It means all the usual signals are malfunctioning. Nobody knows what’s going on because everything is dramatically mispriced as a result of these derivatives. If derivatives were to be banned tomorrow, it would be interesting to see how prices of everything would shift. IMHO, huge moves would occur.

[CA renter]

[quote=martink110]cereal boxes getting smaller and even the bag inside is smaller, yet the price is higher. 2.50+ for a roll of paper towels wth?? Last year Bud 18 packs were $12.99 now $18.99(yeah I know buy on “sale”) etc.
Take a look at the commodities futures and decide if there is inflation coming or not.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=w1

Paraphrased from another blog, but I agree.
“Overpriced assets continue to fall (homes, cars, durbable goods, etc.). Relatively undervalued assets that saw little price appreciation from 1980-2002 such as commodities continue to rise. These cycles come and go. Interest rates have been hopelessly skewed (or screwed) by $213 TRILL in US bank otc interest rate swaps created over the past 20 yrs. This has caused massive malinvestment in things that should never have been….and a lack of investment in things that should have been. If you’re waiting for higher interest rates to tell you there is inflation in commodity prices, it might be a long wait. Don’t count on China and Asia in general to continue to allow our inflation to be exported to them. That worked in the 1980’s and 90’s just fine. But as Asia continues to grow their industrial base expect them to continue to require a much higher percentage of their goods and services to stay home. And as this growth occurs, so do wages and cost of living which means cheaper exports for the US becoming a thing of the past, hence higher priced imports, especially if tariffs are added.”[/quote]

This is a VERY good point (and it’s why I detest derivatives so much). It means all the usual signals are malfunctioning. Nobody knows what’s going on because everything is dramatically mispriced as a result of these derivatives. If derivatives were to be banned tomorrow, it would be interesting to see how prices of everything would shift. IMHO, huge moves would occur.

[socrattt]

Sometimes it’s just really nice to look back at posts and know that you were spot on, rather than wrong :). I sensed it coming and the lagging indicators were definitely there.

If I were asked to predict where things were going I’d say we are going to see a short term spike in commodity prices and equities, but I believe something ugly is lurking. Another crash, possibly, but this time something on a grander scale (it could be some time to come, but current prices are just unsustainable). I even see metals being crushed again. I wish I could buy 100oz bars of grain!

[socrattt]

Sometimes it’s just really nice to look back at posts and know that you were spot on, rather than wrong :). I sensed it coming and the lagging indicators were definitely there.

If I were asked to predict where things were going I’d say we are going to see a short term spike in commodity prices and equities, but I believe something ugly is lurking. Another crash, possibly, but this time something on a grander scale (it could be some time to come, but current prices are just unsustainable). I even see metals being crushed again. I wish I could buy 100oz bars of grain!

[socrattt]

Sometimes it’s just really nice to look back at posts and know that you were spot on, rather than wrong :). I sensed it coming and the lagging indicators were definitely there.

If I were asked to predict where things were going I’d say we are going to see a short term spike in commodity prices and equities, but I believe something ugly is lurking. Another crash, possibly, but this time something on a grander scale (it could be some time to come, but current prices are just unsustainable). I even see metals being crushed again. I wish I could buy 100oz bars of grain!

[socrattt]

Sometimes it’s just really nice to look back at posts and know that you were spot on, rather than wrong :). I sensed it coming and the lagging indicators were definitely there.

If I were asked to predict where things were going I’d say we are going to see a short term spike in commodity prices and equities, but I believe something ugly is lurking. Another crash, possibly, but this time something on a grander scale (it could be some time to come, but current prices are just unsustainable). I even see metals being crushed again. I wish I could buy 100oz bars of grain!

[socrattt]

Sometimes it’s just really nice to look back at posts and know that you were spot on, rather than wrong :). I sensed it coming and the lagging indicators were definitely there.

If I were asked to predict where things were going I’d say we are going to see a short term spike in commodity prices and equities, but I believe something ugly is lurking. Another crash, possibly, but this time something on a grander scale (it could be some time to come, but current prices are just unsustainable). I even see metals being crushed again. I wish I could buy 100oz bars of grain!

[briansd1]

What’s to complain about?

Our economy was misaligned toward too much consumer spending and not enough saving. Higher prices and interest rates will cause to eat less, buy less junk, and save more. Not too bad.

[briansd1]

What’s to complain about?

Our economy was misaligned toward too much consumer spending and not enough saving. Higher prices and interest rates will cause to eat less, buy less junk, and save more. Not too bad.

[briansd1]

What’s to complain about?

Our economy was misaligned toward too much consumer spending and not enough saving. Higher prices and interest rates will cause to eat less, buy less junk, and save more. Not too bad.

[briansd1]

What’s to complain about?

Our economy was misaligned toward too much consumer spending and not enough saving. Higher prices and interest rates will cause to eat less, buy less junk, and save more. Not too bad.

[Author]

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