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  • February 28, 2008 at 2:04 PM #162340
    gdcox
    Participant

    Graham
    I believe that US builders revalue their land every year so they would not suffer form historic cost illusion.

    February 28, 2008 at 4:06 PM #162443
    Bugs
    Participant

    A couple questions here –

    gdcox, I’ll have to look around a little at Bressi for their current pricing. It gets a little tricky on that because Lennar built 6 “communities” at Bressi with different sizes and pricing, but there’s a lot of overlap as you go up in sizing. That means I have to look at current sales and then dig into their prior sales to see what happened.

    gn, almost nobody has been buying land in the last couple years. Actually, a better way to put it is that none of the buyers have been closing escrow in the last couple years. A lot of developers enter into escrow while they develop their subdivision maps and do all their preliminary developer-guy stuff. They don’t close escrow until they’re ready to start building. So while deals may have been made and deposits put down in 2006, a lot of the land deals have died on the vine. The developers are smart enough to know that if/when the market slows down it’s not smart to get caught with a lot of expensive subdivisions sitting around.

    4S Ranch is a great example of what not to do. I think they were too big and got started a little too late to completely get out of the market in time. I’m guessing they’re not liking their current situation much.

    But yeah, land prices are dropping even faster than home prices right now, and I don’t see them rebounding any time soon.

    February 28, 2008 at 4:06 PM #162147
    Bugs
    Participant

    A couple questions here –

    gdcox, I’ll have to look around a little at Bressi for their current pricing. It gets a little tricky on that because Lennar built 6 “communities” at Bressi with different sizes and pricing, but there’s a lot of overlap as you go up in sizing. That means I have to look at current sales and then dig into their prior sales to see what happened.

    gn, almost nobody has been buying land in the last couple years. Actually, a better way to put it is that none of the buyers have been closing escrow in the last couple years. A lot of developers enter into escrow while they develop their subdivision maps and do all their preliminary developer-guy stuff. They don’t close escrow until they’re ready to start building. So while deals may have been made and deposits put down in 2006, a lot of the land deals have died on the vine. The developers are smart enough to know that if/when the market slows down it’s not smart to get caught with a lot of expensive subdivisions sitting around.

    4S Ranch is a great example of what not to do. I think they were too big and got started a little too late to completely get out of the market in time. I’m guessing they’re not liking their current situation much.

    But yeah, land prices are dropping even faster than home prices right now, and I don’t see them rebounding any time soon.

    February 28, 2008 at 4:06 PM #162457
    Bugs
    Participant

    A couple questions here –

    gdcox, I’ll have to look around a little at Bressi for their current pricing. It gets a little tricky on that because Lennar built 6 “communities” at Bressi with different sizes and pricing, but there’s a lot of overlap as you go up in sizing. That means I have to look at current sales and then dig into their prior sales to see what happened.

    gn, almost nobody has been buying land in the last couple years. Actually, a better way to put it is that none of the buyers have been closing escrow in the last couple years. A lot of developers enter into escrow while they develop their subdivision maps and do all their preliminary developer-guy stuff. They don’t close escrow until they’re ready to start building. So while deals may have been made and deposits put down in 2006, a lot of the land deals have died on the vine. The developers are smart enough to know that if/when the market slows down it’s not smart to get caught with a lot of expensive subdivisions sitting around.

    4S Ranch is a great example of what not to do. I think they were too big and got started a little too late to completely get out of the market in time. I’m guessing they’re not liking their current situation much.

    But yeah, land prices are dropping even faster than home prices right now, and I don’t see them rebounding any time soon.

    February 28, 2008 at 4:06 PM #162476
    Bugs
    Participant

    A couple questions here –

    gdcox, I’ll have to look around a little at Bressi for their current pricing. It gets a little tricky on that because Lennar built 6 “communities” at Bressi with different sizes and pricing, but there’s a lot of overlap as you go up in sizing. That means I have to look at current sales and then dig into their prior sales to see what happened.

    gn, almost nobody has been buying land in the last couple years. Actually, a better way to put it is that none of the buyers have been closing escrow in the last couple years. A lot of developers enter into escrow while they develop their subdivision maps and do all their preliminary developer-guy stuff. They don’t close escrow until they’re ready to start building. So while deals may have been made and deposits put down in 2006, a lot of the land deals have died on the vine. The developers are smart enough to know that if/when the market slows down it’s not smart to get caught with a lot of expensive subdivisions sitting around.

    4S Ranch is a great example of what not to do. I think they were too big and got started a little too late to completely get out of the market in time. I’m guessing they’re not liking their current situation much.

    But yeah, land prices are dropping even faster than home prices right now, and I don’t see them rebounding any time soon.

    February 28, 2008 at 4:06 PM #162544
    Bugs
    Participant

    A couple questions here –

    gdcox, I’ll have to look around a little at Bressi for their current pricing. It gets a little tricky on that because Lennar built 6 “communities” at Bressi with different sizes and pricing, but there’s a lot of overlap as you go up in sizing. That means I have to look at current sales and then dig into their prior sales to see what happened.

    gn, almost nobody has been buying land in the last couple years. Actually, a better way to put it is that none of the buyers have been closing escrow in the last couple years. A lot of developers enter into escrow while they develop their subdivision maps and do all their preliminary developer-guy stuff. They don’t close escrow until they’re ready to start building. So while deals may have been made and deposits put down in 2006, a lot of the land deals have died on the vine. The developers are smart enough to know that if/when the market slows down it’s not smart to get caught with a lot of expensive subdivisions sitting around.

    4S Ranch is a great example of what not to do. I think they were too big and got started a little too late to completely get out of the market in time. I’m guessing they’re not liking their current situation much.

    But yeah, land prices are dropping even faster than home prices right now, and I don’t see them rebounding any time soon.

    February 28, 2008 at 4:13 PM #162152
    barnaby33
    Participant

    I love you bugs. You make me swoon (In a straight guy sorta way.)

    Josh

    February 28, 2008 at 4:13 PM #162448
    barnaby33
    Participant

    I love you bugs. You make me swoon (In a straight guy sorta way.)

    Josh

    February 28, 2008 at 4:13 PM #162462
    barnaby33
    Participant

    I love you bugs. You make me swoon (In a straight guy sorta way.)

    Josh

    February 28, 2008 at 4:13 PM #162481
    barnaby33
    Participant

    I love you bugs. You make me swoon (In a straight guy sorta way.)

    Josh

    February 28, 2008 at 4:13 PM #162549
    barnaby33
    Participant

    I love you bugs. You make me swoon (In a straight guy sorta way.)

    Josh

    February 28, 2008 at 4:45 PM #162172
    Fearful
    Participant

    Bugs, thank you for the detailed work on builders’ economics.

    It was a very interesting follow-on to the recent Motley Fool article arguing that because builder gross margins were only up a few percent, house prices ought to only fall a few percent. Pure silliness that completely ignores all the economic principles, not least being inventory.

    February 28, 2008 at 4:45 PM #162468
    Fearful
    Participant

    Bugs, thank you for the detailed work on builders’ economics.

    It was a very interesting follow-on to the recent Motley Fool article arguing that because builder gross margins were only up a few percent, house prices ought to only fall a few percent. Pure silliness that completely ignores all the economic principles, not least being inventory.

    February 28, 2008 at 4:45 PM #162482
    Fearful
    Participant

    Bugs, thank you for the detailed work on builders’ economics.

    It was a very interesting follow-on to the recent Motley Fool article arguing that because builder gross margins were only up a few percent, house prices ought to only fall a few percent. Pure silliness that completely ignores all the economic principles, not least being inventory.

    February 28, 2008 at 4:45 PM #162501
    Fearful
    Participant

    Bugs, thank you for the detailed work on builders’ economics.

    It was a very interesting follow-on to the recent Motley Fool article arguing that because builder gross margins were only up a few percent, house prices ought to only fall a few percent. Pure silliness that completely ignores all the economic principles, not least being inventory.

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