- This topic has 13 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 10 months ago by
teatsonabull.
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January 28, 2006 at 3:54 PM #6352January 28, 2006 at 4:31 PM #23362
hs
ParticipantMy story
I made an offer on a townhouse in the middle of Nov., but it was grabbed by a flipper. The original price was 509–539k, but the owner had to lower it to 499k because they were transfered to DC. At the end of Dec, the same house was put on market again, asking for 539–569k(all he did was painted the house). I called and asked to look at it and the flipper who is a realtor, told me”you will get good price–$5000 down, because you will be buying from me directly.” Now you can understand why the housing price is so high and how greddy people are.(Met several agents and they were all telling me that they own several houses,it is good time to buy,interest rate is low, price will go up….
What do you think?January 28, 2006 at 7:31 PM #23363teatsonabull
ParticipantIf you like the townhouse…keep your eye on it but it is WAY TOO EARLY to begin thinking about haggling with the new owner…you, my friend, have just run into the “greatest fool”. ANYONE who has purchased a home/townhome/apartment(er..”quas”dominium) in the last few months has been hitting the tank (nitrous, that is) a bit too hard. I’d suggest finding a townhome (or single family) that you like that has been on the market for several months and probably has an eager seller.
If I had to buy today (which I don’t and I won’t), I would pay no more than 55-60% of the most recent “comps” for an exact replica (location, size, features) of the home you’re looking at. Any thing else would be financial suicide should you need to sell your house in the next several years. This is an educated opinion, nothing more, and I could be wrong…but I sure as hell wouldn’t touch anything near the prices we are seeing today.
Research the links from this website on the right hand side of the page..you’ll see the meltdown has begun in many markets, including CA. Check out this link to see even more…http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html.
Again, I would pay no more than 55%-60% of today’s asking prices. Use that as a guide and you shouldn’t go wrong…granted, it’ll take some time to achieve your objective, but you should be able to uncover some distress situations out there REAL SOON that will bring a smile to your face and a painful grimace to the face of your new neighbors! Good luck!
January 28, 2006 at 8:19 PM #23364North County Jim
ParticipantMy wife and I experienced the joy of viewing model homes today. We looked at the Meridian and Mariner’s Landing developments in San Elijo Hills, both built by Pulte and priced in the 700 and 800’s.
The Pulte people were very accomodating and they were anything but pushy. My main line of inquiry was how long before their buildout was complete. They plan to be out by November 2006. The most interesting thing offered by the salesman was to understand that all of the sold buttons on their lot map were not final. “They still have to qualify”, we were told.
The most significant piece of information for readers here is the fact that they have cut prices. I come to this conclusion based on two sources of information.
The first is their web page. The starting prices on their pricing sheet were anywhere from 2-11% below the starting prices on their web page.
The second source is the sales prices from their earlier phase at Meridian (I chose Meridian because upgrades like granite and stainless are standard). Previous sales (I found data for a total of 35 sales) averaged $250/sq ft with a low of $223 and a high of $287. Two completed but unsold homes are being offered through an agent at $218 and $220/sq ft (search the MLS for listings on Orion Way). We can all do the math. These are discounted 12% from the previously sold inventory.
If I’m missing something here, let me know.
I’ll also relate this tale of a speculator in the neighborhood. There is already a For Sale sign on a house that closed back in October. The owner of this house got a deal (relatively speaking) at $743,000 ($226/sq ft). He’s now trying to flip it for $859,000 ($261/sq ft). Is he aware that the builder is trying to unload two larger homes for $74,000 less?
We left our name with the salespeople and told them we were tied up in a lease until October. I’m curious whether we’ll hear from them before they complete their buildout.
January 28, 2006 at 8:58 PM #23365ParticipantAfter reading this website, we are not planning to buy soon. We will continue to rent and wait and see.
Looked at a couple of rental houses in scripps ranch area today. Can not believe how craby they are.(Price is not low, though.)If you want to rent a reasonable house for around 1500sqt, you have to pay at least more than $2200/month. It seems rent is up.(?)
January 29, 2006 at 1:20 AM #23366powayseller
Participantteatsonbull; That’s a great neighborhood – I looked at a rental on Lincolnshire last month, but decided against it for several reasons. The price reduction is amazing!
January 30, 2006 at 7:48 AM #23367MANmom
ParticipantNorth County Jim,
You did not mention if there were any fees for HOA, CFD, mello roose, or other things…how much extra a month are those fools paying just to live there? I know that in Pacific Highlands Ranch nearby there in Carmel Valley, there are not only 1 but 2 HOA’s, CFD and Mello-roose that TOTAL $600 extra a month! What a scam.
January 30, 2006 at 1:22 PM #23368ParticipantOur only interest was in looking if there were changes in asking prices. It appears there were. I’m very interested to see how pricing shakes out on the next phase (the two leftovers I mentioned previously were from Phase V; there are five more phases to go).
But since you ask, there is Mello Roos. A peek at the property taxes of the flipper highlighted in my last post shows four separate CFD charges totalling $5,400.
I’m sure there’s also HOA fees but I don’t know what they are. So figure at least an extra $600/month in fees in addition to P&I and property taxes.
If we look at the flipper’s situation, he has a monthly nut on the place of at least $4,200 assuming he put 20% down on an I/O loan at 5.25%. He’s now approaching $16k in carrying costs thus far with the builder around the corner undercutting him.
January 30, 2006 at 10:03 PM #23369Jim Brubaker
ParticipantShe said it had been listed at $799,000 but “now it is listed at $699,000-$729,000.”
In your above quote, how does the variable price work. I thought that the house was apraised at a certian value and you went from there. Will the house appraise for 729,000, and if it does, does that mean that a bid of 699,000 entails some sleigh of hand? What does a house value that has a range mean to the buyer?
January 31, 2006 at 4:47 AM #23370ParticipantWe closed escrow this month on a house listed in a range. Range listing is a marketing concept: the seller hopes to get the upper end of the range, but lists the lower end in the hopes of attracting buyers who are looking under a certain price, and who will fall in love with the house and come up with the extra money.
In the example you gave, an MLS search for a buyer who can afford up to $700K, will bring up that listing. If they want the house, they could come up with the extra $29K. However, you also have the risk of someone just offering at the lower end, and that’s what happened to us: we had 2 offers below the lower end.
I think appraisers have a little wiggle room, although someone else may correct me here. Whether a house is worth $699K or $729K is a little of an art, not a science, right? I didn’t see the appraisal for my house-sale, so I don’t know if it came in near my range, or only right at the offering price.
Perhaps we have some appraisers who read these forums, who can educate us about this.February 1, 2006 at 12:05 PM #23374Anonymous
GuestI am so glad to see that there are people like you.
I thought I was the only one. I bought a home in 1998.
Since 2003 I have been making offers, but there was always someone who outbid me with offers of 50K+ above listing price. It was so ridiculous.After reading your post, I will start doing what you said. I will just go to open houses just to waste their time and psychologically affect people to feel pressure to lower price.
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I strongly encourage that we get out there and “pound the pavement” to let the greedy bastards and their agents know that WE are on to them. Visit as many open houses as you can and laugh at the asking prices!! This WILL accelerate the downward pressure on prices so that we can one day consider buying again here in San Diego (probably 2008/2009).To all the naysayers and friends I’ve tried to warn…I suggest that NOW is the time to begin paying attention to the “worrywarts”. Again….THE GAME IS OVER!!
Has anyone else been doing this for fun? I’d love to hear your stories.
February 1, 2006 at 12:30 PM #23375ParticipantYeah…my wife thinks it quite odd of me to be doing this…this bubble blogging thing has almost turned into an addiction for me. I applaud and encourage your efforts. My goal is to go to at least one open house a week now…perhaps even dropping in on one of those curious mid-week open houses on the way from one appointment to my next. You’ll get a kick out of this:
A friend of mine low-balled a McMansion via ZipRealty last weekend and got an e-mail from the Zip agent, encouraging him to stop wasting people’s time with such ridiculous offers..(750K for a 1.375M listing) He replied to her that the offer he made was based on where he expects to buy the house in a few years, post-Greenspan. Turns out..he engaged the agent in several e-mails back and forth, and learned that she is selling her OWN house in a decent part of North County Inland (asking price 950K to 1.1M, I think) and buying in a MOBILE HOME PARK to escape being house-poor. Can you f*(ing believe that???
I can only imagine what she’ll say to get her house sold. Anyway…my friend promptly put her in her place and told her “the train has left the station” for her asking price and that she better get used to seeing LOTS of ANGRY, DEPRESSED former real estate customers in the next few years.
Cheers,
By the way…my name “teatsonabull” refers to the uselessness of real estate agents…”useless as teats on a bull”, get it?
February 1, 2006 at 7:48 PM #23377Blissful Ignoramus
Participant“Whether a house is worth $699K or $729K is a little of an art, not a science, right? ”
More slight of hand than art or science…
February 2, 2006 at 7:58 PM #23381ParticipantAn update…since my friend engaged the realtor in a discussion about the likelihood of her receiving 975K for her house being next to NIL, she has subsequently REMOVED the VALUE RANGE of 975K to 1.025M from her listing. Her house is now listed only as 975K…so it looks like he caused this gal to second-guess herself to the tune of 50K!!! I love it…now if we go hard enough-we can get ’em all to drop their prices by 50K and this will get the SNOWBALL rolling. Hopefully, it will come crashing down on Alan Gin, David Lereah, Leslie Appleton-Young, and all those other FOOLS out there lying to the SHEEPLE!!! Not that the SHEEPLE are without fault here…they are simply TOO STUPID to understand the consequences of their actions! BAAAH…BAAAH….BAAAH
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