I’m out again

[scaredyclassic]

I have gone 100% into denial. I know, i should do some allocation, 15% denial, 20% cold reality, 33% blind fear, etc., but I’m just going with my gut. 100% denial, that’s where I’m staying. You pepel can do whatever the hell you want, but don’t say i didn’t warn you. Go long denial, all in!

[socrattt]

[quote=Eugene][quote=socrattt]
Eugene is that a joke? That might be the silliest thing I have heard all day. The recession has ended? You have been watching way too much TV? Do yourself a favor a read the real facts.
[/quote]

I don’t watch TV at all. Time will tell who’s wrong and who’s right.[/quote]

Eugene, don’t take that as an insult. I hope I am proved wrong, but I just don’t see the false numbers having the ability to be propped up much longer. Something gotta give!

[socrattt]

[quote=Eugene][quote=socrattt]
Eugene is that a joke? That might be the silliest thing I have heard all day. The recession has ended? You have been watching way too much TV? Do yourself a favor a read the real facts.
[/quote]

I don’t watch TV at all. Time will tell who’s wrong and who’s right.[/quote]

Eugene, don’t take that as an insult. I hope I am proved wrong, but I just don’t see the false numbers having the ability to be propped up much longer. Something gotta give!

[socrattt]

[quote=Eugene][quote=socrattt]
Eugene is that a joke? That might be the silliest thing I have heard all day. The recession has ended? You have been watching way too much TV? Do yourself a favor a read the real facts.
[/quote]

I don’t watch TV at all. Time will tell who’s wrong and who’s right.[/quote]

Eugene, don’t take that as an insult. I hope I am proved wrong, but I just don’t see the false numbers having the ability to be propped up much longer. Something gotta give!

[socrattt]

[quote=Eugene][quote=socrattt]
Eugene is that a joke? That might be the silliest thing I have heard all day. The recession has ended? You have been watching way too much TV? Do yourself a favor a read the real facts.
[/quote]

I don’t watch TV at all. Time will tell who’s wrong and who’s right.[/quote]

Eugene, don’t take that as an insult. I hope I am proved wrong, but I just don’t see the false numbers having the ability to be propped up much longer. Something gotta give!

[socrattt]

[quote=Eugene][quote=socrattt]
Eugene is that a joke? That might be the silliest thing I have heard all day. The recession has ended? You have been watching way too much TV? Do yourself a favor a read the real facts.
[/quote]

I don’t watch TV at all. Time will tell who’s wrong and who’s right.[/quote]

Eugene, don’t take that as an insult. I hope I am proved wrong, but I just don’t see the false numbers having the ability to be propped up much longer. Something gotta give!

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK after all this I got to go with what I first said on this thread,

“But to be honest I think it is just what I see on this board that will keep the market zigzagging higher over the next few months”

Too many bears still out there, Got to be a lot on money yet on the sidelines.

If the market is still up come end of October however I will stay on the sidelines myself.

I am with sdr if we do manage to get a 15-20% correction by that time , I will probably go mostly in, But at this point I just don’t think that will happen.

I think I remember Sam Zell saying the CRE situation is not nearly as dire as what happened to Residential RE , ( I think he said that CRE deals are much easier to work through and the clean up would be much easier and faster and most CRE owners have the resources to wait it out)

I guess we will see.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK after all this I got to go with what I first said on this thread,

“But to be honest I think it is just what I see on this board that will keep the market zigzagging higher over the next few months”

Too many bears still out there, Got to be a lot on money yet on the sidelines.

If the market is still up come end of October however I will stay on the sidelines myself.

I am with sdr if we do manage to get a 15-20% correction by that time , I will probably go mostly in, But at this point I just don’t think that will happen.

I think I remember Sam Zell saying the CRE situation is not nearly as dire as what happened to Residential RE , ( I think he said that CRE deals are much easier to work through and the clean up would be much easier and faster and most CRE owners have the resources to wait it out)

I guess we will see.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK after all this I got to go with what I first said on this thread,

“But to be honest I think it is just what I see on this board that will keep the market zigzagging higher over the next few months”

Too many bears still out there, Got to be a lot on money yet on the sidelines.

If the market is still up come end of October however I will stay on the sidelines myself.

I am with sdr if we do manage to get a 15-20% correction by that time , I will probably go mostly in, But at this point I just don’t think that will happen.

I think I remember Sam Zell saying the CRE situation is not nearly as dire as what happened to Residential RE , ( I think he said that CRE deals are much easier to work through and the clean up would be much easier and faster and most CRE owners have the resources to wait it out)

I guess we will see.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK after all this I got to go with what I first said on this thread,

“But to be honest I think it is just what I see on this board that will keep the market zigzagging higher over the next few months”

Too many bears still out there, Got to be a lot on money yet on the sidelines.

If the market is still up come end of October however I will stay on the sidelines myself.

I am with sdr if we do manage to get a 15-20% correction by that time , I will probably go mostly in, But at this point I just don’t think that will happen.

I think I remember Sam Zell saying the CRE situation is not nearly as dire as what happened to Residential RE , ( I think he said that CRE deals are much easier to work through and the clean up would be much easier and faster and most CRE owners have the resources to wait it out)

I guess we will see.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK after all this I got to go with what I first said on this thread,

“But to be honest I think it is just what I see on this board that will keep the market zigzagging higher over the next few months”

Too many bears still out there, Got to be a lot on money yet on the sidelines.

If the market is still up come end of October however I will stay on the sidelines myself.

I am with sdr if we do manage to get a 15-20% correction by that time , I will probably go mostly in, But at this point I just don’t think that will happen.

I think I remember Sam Zell saying the CRE situation is not nearly as dire as what happened to Residential RE , ( I think he said that CRE deals are much easier to work through and the clean up would be much easier and faster and most CRE owners have the resources to wait it out)

I guess we will see.

[equalizer]

sdr,

Don’t know if you read this in WSJ on the 24th:
“Bulls of March Look Set to Trade in Their Horns –
Those Who Called Bottom in March Say Prices Look Overvalued”. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125106232283552019.html

“Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter.”

After 51% run on S&P 500 from March, a correction is reasonable esp in the worst month of year for stocks, Sep. Market is going up with declining volume, usually a bearish sign.

For those who are like charts, a bullish case can be found here: http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/200turnuppublic/

Basically the 50 DMA crossed the 200 DMA and slope of 200 DMA turned positive. Emerging markets and copper roared after slope of 200 DMA turned positive in 2003. S&P 500 only went up 69%, so even if we repeat we are only looking at 15% upside from here.

For extensive asset sector breakdown check out
http://ciovaccocapital.com/CCM%20ASD%20AUG%202009%20PDF%20SUN.pdf

I’ve thoroughly confused myself now, so time to hope and hold.

Some conservative funds with good long-term managers for beginners to consider :

Vanguard Health Care VGHCX
Janus Flexible Bond J JAFIX
Oakmark Eqty Income OAKBX
Sextant International SSIFX
Artisan Intl Value ARTKX
TCW Total Bond TGLMX

And the surprise is HighMark CA Interm Tx-Fr Bond Fid HMITX, up 5% for year, tax free which I did buy in Dec 08.

[equalizer]

sdr,

Don’t know if you read this in WSJ on the 24th:
“Bulls of March Look Set to Trade in Their Horns –
Those Who Called Bottom in March Say Prices Look Overvalued”. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125106232283552019.html

“Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter.”

After 51% run on S&P 500 from March, a correction is reasonable esp in the worst month of year for stocks, Sep. Market is going up with declining volume, usually a bearish sign.

For those who are like charts, a bullish case can be found here: http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/200turnuppublic/

Basically the 50 DMA crossed the 200 DMA and slope of 200 DMA turned positive. Emerging markets and copper roared after slope of 200 DMA turned positive in 2003. S&P 500 only went up 69%, so even if we repeat we are only looking at 15% upside from here.

For extensive asset sector breakdown check out
http://ciovaccocapital.com/CCM%20ASD%20AUG%202009%20PDF%20SUN.pdf

I’ve thoroughly confused myself now, so time to hope and hold.

Some conservative funds with good long-term managers for beginners to consider :

Vanguard Health Care VGHCX
Janus Flexible Bond J JAFIX
Oakmark Eqty Income OAKBX
Sextant International SSIFX
Artisan Intl Value ARTKX
TCW Total Bond TGLMX

And the surprise is HighMark CA Interm Tx-Fr Bond Fid HMITX, up 5% for year, tax free which I did buy in Dec 08.

[equalizer]

sdr,

Don’t know if you read this in WSJ on the 24th:
“Bulls of March Look Set to Trade in Their Horns –
Those Who Called Bottom in March Say Prices Look Overvalued”. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125106232283552019.html

“Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter.”

After 51% run on S&P 500 from March, a correction is reasonable esp in the worst month of year for stocks, Sep. Market is going up with declining volume, usually a bearish sign.

For those who are like charts, a bullish case can be found here: http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/200turnuppublic/

Basically the 50 DMA crossed the 200 DMA and slope of 200 DMA turned positive. Emerging markets and copper roared after slope of 200 DMA turned positive in 2003. S&P 500 only went up 69%, so even if we repeat we are only looking at 15% upside from here.

For extensive asset sector breakdown check out
http://ciovaccocapital.com/CCM%20ASD%20AUG%202009%20PDF%20SUN.pdf

I’ve thoroughly confused myself now, so time to hope and hold.

Some conservative funds with good long-term managers for beginners to consider :

Vanguard Health Care VGHCX
Janus Flexible Bond J JAFIX
Oakmark Eqty Income OAKBX
Sextant International SSIFX
Artisan Intl Value ARTKX
TCW Total Bond TGLMX

And the surprise is HighMark CA Interm Tx-Fr Bond Fid HMITX, up 5% for year, tax free which I did buy in Dec 08.

[equalizer]

sdr,

Don’t know if you read this in WSJ on the 24th:
“Bulls of March Look Set to Trade in Their Horns –
Those Who Called Bottom in March Say Prices Look Overvalued”. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125106232283552019.html

“Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter.”

After 51% run on S&P 500 from March, a correction is reasonable esp in the worst month of year for stocks, Sep. Market is going up with declining volume, usually a bearish sign.

For those who are like charts, a bullish case can be found here: http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/200turnuppublic/

Basically the 50 DMA crossed the 200 DMA and slope of 200 DMA turned positive. Emerging markets and copper roared after slope of 200 DMA turned positive in 2003. S&P 500 only went up 69%, so even if we repeat we are only looking at 15% upside from here.

For extensive asset sector breakdown check out
http://ciovaccocapital.com/CCM%20ASD%20AUG%202009%20PDF%20SUN.pdf

I’ve thoroughly confused myself now, so time to hope and hold.

Some conservative funds with good long-term managers for beginners to consider :

Vanguard Health Care VGHCX
Janus Flexible Bond J JAFIX
Oakmark Eqty Income OAKBX
Sextant International SSIFX
Artisan Intl Value ARTKX
TCW Total Bond TGLMX

And the surprise is HighMark CA Interm Tx-Fr Bond Fid HMITX, up 5% for year, tax free which I did buy in Dec 08.

[Author]

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