Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › How will unfunded “pensions” affect the local economy?
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October 4, 2014 at 10:10 AM #778407October 4, 2014 at 2:11 PM #778415FlyerInHiGuest
[quote=harvey]You’ll probably live longer:
http://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2013/02/pessimism-future.aspx
Pessimism About the Future May Lead to Longer, Healthier Life, Research Finds[/quote]
People who are pessimistic are always researching and doing something in case of disaster.
You need stress in your life to keep the youth enzymes going. They tell your body to fight to live longer. Of course, the optimal level of stress is debatable and varies from person to person.
You can create your own stress by taking on more than your can handle, but not too much that you fail at everything. That way you’re always running around doing something. It prevents you from being bored and sitting around watching TV and eating potato chips.
October 15, 2014 at 10:34 PM #778822phasterParticipant[quote=harvey][quote=CA renter]CalSTRS just enacted a new plan to pay off their unfunded liabilities over 32 years (because they can…because it’s not a DC system) by increasing contributions from all stakeholders. Most of the other pension funds are working on the numbers and legislation to pay off their unfunded liabilities, as well.[/quote]
Whew! That’s a relief!
It’s good to hear that CalSTRS has a 32 year plan that will fix the problem.
Their execution for the past thirty years has been a total failure, but I’m sure they’ll get it right after a a few more decades.
And “most of the the other” fiscal time bombs are “working on the numbers and the legislation” …
Sounds like everything is under control. No worries![/quote]
Thought I’d drop in after the watching the market head south the past few days…
Thank god…
SD PENSION “officials close to the system say it is designed to balance out the fund’s holdings and protect it against big losses in the event of a stock-market meltdown.”
http://online.wsj.com/articles/san-diego-pension-dials-up-the-risk-to-combat-a-shortfall-1407974779
actually given the magnitude of the problem (and burn rate) if california/SD makes it 8 years (a quarter of the 32 year plan) w/o going bankrupt I’d be surprised…
October 15, 2014 at 10:41 PM #778820phasterParticipant[quote=CA renter]
2.) Responding to that first link of yours, though, this has nothing at all to do with the Mills Act. The Mills Act is a California state program; the program in your link is federal.If you have some issue with a particular property having a Mills Act designation, you should look up why they have that designation.
3.) Again, the issue with the software does not point to any fraud. There was no fraud found when they *tried* to find problems with the system. There is no smoke, nor any fire, from what I can see. If you have any evidence or reason to believe that there was fraud, please make your case. The fact is that fraud *can* be committed all over the place — in the public and private sectors — but we don’t get to randomly accuse people of fraud when there is no evidence nor reason to believe that any fraud was committed.
4.) I’m not sure how your parents would have been accessories to insurance fraud if the owner of the other property was willing to fix the problem and pay for it. Are you saying that he was filing a claim? That’s not made clear based on your posts. Quite frankly, if the owner was willing to pay to fix the problem, I’m not sure what the complaint is about.
[/quote]The current (political and bureaucratic) SD management, seem to have a “history” of looking the other way kinda like the old sgt schultz character,
[quote=livinincali]
I worked on a project for RISK management about 12 years ago, which is the San Diego’s self funded disability insurance office. What firefighter and cops did at retirement was pretty bad. That was more a case of disability fraud, where if you retire under disability 50% of you pension income is tax free. But there were crazy things in the payroll system. People claiming to work more than 24 hours in a day. People claiming light duty (aka a disability claim) and regular duty in the same day.
[/quote]The link:
In recent years, the Internal Revenue Service has denied 70 percent of facade easement deductions, court filings show. Since 2002, the Justice Department estimates that inflated easement deductions have totaled $1.2 billion.
is directly related to fact that with a “historic property” classification its possible to game federal taxes (with a city policy)
Ability to donate a facade easement to the city or other historical preservation agency as a charitable donation deduction from income taxes.
Still don’t see the connection with software developed by the city that “allows for fraud?”
Bottom line, I was un-necessarly dragged into court and had to face delaying tactics because I seem to have uncovered a web of dishonesty no one wants to admit to (while initially I had concerns about being an accessory to insurance fraud)
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/22060281/bway_sewer_line_docs/is_it_insurance_fraud.pdf
October 16, 2014 at 12:49 PM #778836FlyerInHiGuestStudent loans are a bigger worry in the shorter term. Debts are preventing household formation and home buying.
October 16, 2014 at 2:31 PM #778841spdrunParticipantThat’s a “worry?” Nah. Keep ’em renting and leave buying up to the professionals.
October 16, 2014 at 2:57 PM #778843FlyerInHiGuestYeah, it is a worry because household formation and homebuying are good for the economy.
I see so many rental condos in Vegas. I’m surprised that people don’t buy and lower their monthly housing costs. I can understand renting in the expensive coastal areas… but you can get an OK condo in Vegas for $70k.
October 16, 2014 at 3:05 PM #778844spdrunParticipantWhy worry about what’s good for the economy? Worry about what’s good for you and enjoy the fact that you don’t have Twitter Twits competing with you to buy.
BTW – the home ownership rate is similar to what it was in 1995, which wasn’t exactly the end of the world economically. Actually, not owning a primary residence has its benefits. For example, if you have to move 1000 miles for work, you’re mobile and more likely to take a job than be tied to your city.
The idea that every schmoe has to own a house is egalitarian nonsense. Some people simply aren’t cut out to make an expensive investment. Lastly, you’re talking about Vegas. No one whom I know who’s moved there has stayed beyond a few years. It’s a transient town and people know it. I can understand the aversion to putting down roots there.
October 16, 2014 at 3:14 PM #778846FlyerInHiGuestA $70k condo is hardly putting down roots.
Buy it to live and sell later. Why is that a big deal if it lowers your monthly housing outlay?People in Vegas do drive nice cars. Lots of flashy cars.
October 16, 2014 at 3:33 PM #778848spdrunParticipantWhat do you care? Why would you want them competing with you? Keep ’em renting!
And there’s your answer: if you have a $600 car payment and $200 insurance per month, it eats into your ability to get approved for a mortgage a wee bit…
December 14, 2014 at 1:56 PM #779088phasterParticipant[quote=FlyerInHi]Student loans are a bigger worry in the shorter term. Debts are preventing household formation and home buying.[/quote]
Have to disagree, that student loans are the bigger problem (short term). Just look at the magnitude of each component of the “difficult/unserviceable debt” and the context.
Broadly speaking in ascending order, here is a list of various “debt” problem(s).
“the volume of total subprime auto loans increased roughly 15 percent, to $145.6 billion“
There is “a $518 billion total pool of HELOCs“ (i.e. people using their homes as an ATM)
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/11/26/are-heloc-defaults-about-to-spike/
$1.2 Trillion College Debt Crisis
“According to The Institute for College Access and Success (TICAS) Project on Student Debt, the average borrower will graduate $26,600 in the red.”
I hear what you’re saying there is a “negative” feed back going on, with recent graduates having a difficult time getting a start in the job market, this kicks the can down the road of household formation and home buying BUT
There is “a [dark] cloud totaling $4.1 trillion dollars for state-administered public pension plans“
[edited 12/14/2014 – added a “link” and a graphic showing a range of PV calculation from a Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government working paper titled:
Underfunded Public Pensions
in the United States:
The Size of the Problem, the Obstacles to Reform and the Path Forward]http://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/fwp/2012-08
Keep in mind the reason I think “unfunded” public pensions will be the trigger event (of the next economic downturn) is because of the change in accounting rules starting in 2015 (which puts debts on the balance sheet and will affect “muni” bond ratings).
Looking at the big picture…
America – its government, businesses, and people – are nearly $60 trillion in debt
“The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the economy will stall by 2017 because Americans will continue spending, but wages and wealth won’t be going up…
Economists have not agreed on how to stave off the impending crisis. But Americans’ addiction to spending on credit will not help.”
December 14, 2014 at 4:09 PM #781082CA renterParticipantAgree that debt is a HUGE problem going forward, but public pensions are just one part of the problem. They are dwarfed by other types of debt.
BTW, nobody in their right mind would use the market value of of assets discounted by the 15-year Treasury rate, especially during a time of unprecedented Federal Reserve manipulations. This was put out by a right-wing group that is 100% funded by those behind the Privatization Movement. In other words, pure propaganda.
There is a very real war going on against working/middle-class people in developed countries. Don’t be a a useful idiot. If you’re not being paid, you should definitely demand payment from the Privatization Movement for your services. They expect to reap great rewards from the work of people like yourself; make sure to get your piece of the pie.
December 14, 2014 at 9:29 PM #781085FlyerInHiGuestRealistically, no, unfunded pensions, whatever the total size, will not put a damper on the economy.
I don’t think the municipalities can increase taxes much more, so they can’t take a larger share of the economy.
Plus, if there’s a problem, it’s far into the future with different municipalities working out their problems at their own pace.
Localities can cut services to service debt and pay employees. The services might suck, but there won’t be a systemic collapse of the economy.
In the mean time, student debt is weighing on young people putting a drag on household formation and home building. That’s an immediate concern.
December 15, 2014 at 6:30 AM #781090spdrunParticipantThat’s not a “concern” for you — less home building and fewer people buying hours = more renters and less competition for you. 🙂
March 28, 2015 at 11:07 AM #784270phasterParticipant[quote=Wall Street Journal]
San Diego County Pension Chief to ResignBy Dan Fitzpatrick
March 19, 2015 6:22 p.m. ETThe chief executive of San Diego County’s pension system announced he would resign at the end of the month, bringing fresh turmoil for the $10.4 billion fund.
San Diego County Employees Retirement Association said in a statement that CEO Brian White and the board had “amicably agreed” that Mr. White’s tenure of nearly two decades would end March 30. David Wescoe, former head of the city of San Diego’s pension fund, will take over as CEO while the board searches for a permanent replacement.
A Sdcera spokesman said Mr. White made the decision to resign and that he and the board had been discussing the move “over the course of several months.” Mr. White said in a statement that “Sdcera has enjoyed great success, which I expect will continue” and that “serving as Sdcera’s CEO has been an incredibly rewarding professional experience.”
The exit of the system’s longtime leader caps a period of strife for a fund that manages money on behalf of more than 39,657 active and former public employees.
Board members and staff members spent much of the past year wrangling over an outside firm’s investment strategy that involved the use of derivatives to boost performance. The controversial approach was the subject of a front-page article in The Wall Street Journal.
The board voted in November to find a new internal investment chief rather than rely on an outside manager for that role.
Write to Dan Fitzpatrick at [email protected]
http://www.wsj.com/articles/san-diego-county-pension-chief-to-resign-1426803772
[/quote]
FWIW everything I’ve looked at tells me that mis-use of math models are the cause for the financial crisis
paradoxically “the math” also tells me it is only a matter of time before the $hit hits the fan because no matter who the board finds to manage the fund, the “economic” system as it exists today is unsustainable…
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