HOW LOW WILL IT GO % and TIME FRAME

[latesummer2008]

Domino Effect w/ Sub Prime being the first to fall ? Seems to me there are alot of LIAR LOANS out there that everyone was getting as long as the banks would give them. Now they can have them back ! Too bad they were packaged up and sold to Wall Street. Hot Potato…. Or Tag..your it… Back to the lender, mortgage broker, real estate agent ?Especially bad here in California where there is little regulation on the mortgage industry. Now that EZ money has about stopped, WHO in their right mind can buy and would buy at these prices ? CLASSIC SPECULATIVE BUBBLE leaking faster and faster each day. Sellers will have a rude wake-up call this spring.

[latesummer2008]

Domino Effect w/ Sub Prime being the first to fall ? Seems to me there are alot of LIAR LOANS out there that everyone was getting as long as the banks would give them. Now they can have them back ! Too bad they were packaged up and sold to Wall Street. Hot Potato…. Or Tag..your it… Back to the lender, mortgage broker, real estate agent ?Especially bad here in California where there is little regulation on the mortgage industry. Now that EZ money has about stopped, WHO in their right mind can buy and would buy at these prices ? CLASSIC SPECULATIVE BUBBLE leaking faster and faster each day. Sellers will have a rude wake-up call this spring.

[Anonymous]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the real estate market in the High Desert (Victorville,Apple Valley). I know most of you probably don’t think much about the High Desert. I am from OC and always thought it was a place you drove through to get to Vegas. My husband and I have been renting while we try to ride out the housing bubble. Anyway, Anyone see a different housing scenario playing out up here.

[latesummer2008]

Meltdown of Westside R.E.? Particularly the areas of Santa Monica, Venice, Mar Vista, Palms, Culver City, Beverlywood, Westwood, Brentwood, Bel Air, Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Rancho Park, Beverly Hills, Century City, West Hollywood and West LA ? I believe that huge drops are in store here in the near future. If you have input on these areas, please reply at

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

latesummer2008 –

GLad to see someone jumping in on the westside…
I think that the westside is/will be one of the last areas of SO Cal where the bubble plays out.
Instead of starting off my comments on your blog in what could perhaps be perceived as negative, I’m going to offer a suggestion here.
Please show the evidence for a “10-15 % drop in prices everywhere else on the Westside since the Fall of 05” (everywhere else, meaning except Santa Monica)

I have not observed a 10-15 % drop in Westwood for example, when comparing similar properties. Perhaps in Mar Vista or Culver City this has happened. My suggestion: Pick an area and show some numbers to get the ball rolling.

[latesummer2008]

FormerSanDiegan,

Lets get this ball rollin ! 10 minutes on Zillow produced the first of many to come. This is pretty good one since there was a sale in 05′, 06′, and 07′. Basic 2+1 starter on small lot in Santa Monica.

2464 Ocean Park Blvd
Santa Monica Ca 90405

984 sq ft House
3202 sq ft Lot

6/15/05 900K
5/26/06 762K
2/16/07 700K

Thats a 22.3% drop from 6/05 by my calculations. Roughly half of my estimated 45% drop for Santa Monica once all is said and done. And we are JUST GETTING STARTED this summer. See if you can find Westwood. I know Rancho Park 90064 has been hit really hard this last month. Only 6 sales with an average sales price of 665K according to the LA Times monthly sales figures.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Nice find. I think the marginal parts of Santa Monica are already taking a hit. That particular house is in an area that is likely zoned multifamily or possibly even commercial. Perhaps they had grand ideas that didn’t pan out …

I think the small number of sales for January in both Rancho Park and Westwood are good indications of the slowdown in sales. But the small numbers are not good indications of price. I’ll see what I can find.

[cr]

I’m in the 818 area code and last night I saw a house going for $815k in Sun Valley. I looked it up on Zillow and the last sale was 12-2005 for $800k.

I think this summer we will start to see “motivated sellers” selling for a loss. Sure that’s one house, but it’s also the low season of sales. When summer rolls around I think we agree there will be more listings, and many will be desperate.

Highdesertrenter, to answer your question, I view those areas similar to Palmdale, and San Bernadino/Riverside, etc. Bedroom communities that have been overdeveloped simply because they are an “hour from LA.” I think prices will plummet there due to overbuilding. I remember seeing hundreds of homes, new and still being built in Adelanto no more than a year ago.

[latesummer2008]

45-60% off Peak Prices depending on location, timing, and need to sell. Southern California is about ready to GET ROCKED. Credit Crunch and EZ money being turned off will HIT THIS MARKET HARD. I think it will come quicker than most can imagine. Usually falls faster in a panic to sell than the “want” to buy on the way up. Simple market psychology. The “herd” is starting to rumble. Probably very well, will spill into the local economy with layoffs, and job losses dragging the US economy down. Isn’t California the 5th largest economy in the world ? Perhaps now, everyone in the state, country, and world has their eyes on the leading market indicator, San Diego…….

[Author]

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