Housing & economy doing great…shut down this site!

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

I don’t know what planet most of you live on, but I have to agree with Scruffy and Neet.

Today my wife and I went to look at homes in Carmel Valley and we were absolutely shocked at the prices, but even more shocked by the fact that most of the homes in Pardee’s larger tract (Santa Rosa) were sold. They only have about 6 homes left ranging from $999K to $1.13M. The biggest lot was 8,300 sq ft and there were buyers there throughout our visit and more coming in as we left.

My wife asked about incentives and we were almost laughed out of the place. The agent told us that they were offering about 16K toward closing and maybe a flooring allocation. The agent said they were not having a problem selling so they were not forced to offer incentives.

I saw similar in Carlsbad at La Costa Greens and La Costa Ridge. Last week we drove to an open house in Encinitas Ranch and the home was selling for about $2.0-$2.2M — about 5K sq ft home on a small lot.

I’m sorry but we are just not seeing the discounting you all are speaking of in the more desirable areas.

We have been on the sidelines for a few years waiting for the crash, but will likely be purchasing within the next 6-12 months. If you’ve seen dramatic discounts in the areas I mention, please let me know.

Hype

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

P.S. The smaller homes (about 2000-2500 sq ft) were not moving. We asked why and the response was:

“People who bought up the bigger homes have a lot of equity that they are bringing to the table and they want a bigger house and are buying them up. The smaller homes are priced in the high 700’s to mid 800’s but most who are looking at those places are entry buyers who have much less money via downpayment.”

I suspect those sitting on a ton of equity will keep some of these places afloat for a long time to come.

Sorry Neeta about spelling your name wrong above.

Hype

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

P.S. The smaller homes (about 2000-2500 sq ft) were not moving. We asked why and the response was:

“People who bought up the bigger homes have a lot of equity that they are bringing to the table and they want a bigger house and are buying them up. The smaller homes are priced in the high 700’s to mid 800’s but most who are looking at those places are entry buyers who have much less money via downpayment.”

I suspect those sitting on a ton of equity will keep some of these places afloat for a long time to come.

Sorry Neeta about spelling your name wrong above.

Hype

[sdrealtor]

Last time I checked very little was selling in Encinitas Ranch, particularly 2M tract homes. In LC Greens, Pulte is having a lot of trouble selling beautiful homes with golf course frontage which are perhaps the best in the tract. As for LC Ridge, lass time I stopped by the sales reps were very very lonely (i.e maytag repairman) and sales were very very slow.

You are correct that there havent been dramatic discounts. Just lots of overpriced inventory rotting on the shelves.

[sdrealtor]

Last time I checked very little was selling in Encinitas Ranch, particularly 2M tract homes. In LC Greens, Pulte is having a lot of trouble selling beautiful homes with golf course frontage which are perhaps the best in the tract. As for LC Ridge, lass time I stopped by the sales reps were very very lonely (i.e maytag repairman) and sales were very very slow.

You are correct that there havent been dramatic discounts. Just lots of overpriced inventory rotting on the shelves.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Hype, it is good that the delusional knife-catchers who are buying now are getting out of the way when it is Piggingtonians’ turn to buy a west coast “dream” home in about two years. Less competition is much appreciated for prime properties at much better pricing available in 2009-2010. Some of these starry-eyed knife-catchers today are counting on perpetual housing price inflation. They got lucky before – now they think more of the same such that if they upgrade at double the price, they could also double the luck and increase their profit if they sell the new one down the road. With so much blind optimism, some of them might even “accidentally” end up carrying two mortgages (can’t sell the old house). They will implode their net worth. Who will come out financially strong and whole in the end? I hope many Piggingtonians do.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Hype, it is good that the delusional knife-catchers who are buying now are getting out of the way when it is Piggingtonians’ turn to buy a west coast “dream” home in about two years. Less competition is much appreciated for prime properties at much better pricing available in 2009-2010. Some of these starry-eyed knife-catchers today are counting on perpetual housing price inflation. They got lucky before – now they think more of the same such that if they upgrade at double the price, they could also double the luck and increase their profit if they sell the new one down the road. With so much blind optimism, some of them might even “accidentally” end up carrying two mortgages (can’t sell the old house). They will implode their net worth. Who will come out financially strong and whole in the end? I hope many Piggingtonians do.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

I understand that many of you here are very strong in your convictions. I’m just sharing what I am seeing in the market. I wish everyone good luck, whether they decide to buy or rent. However, the steep drops that many here are projecting (and have been projecting for some time) are just not happening — not in areas others want to live in. Unless you are looking to buy 40-50 miles out, I’m just not seeing it.

Also, I don’t know many homebuyers today that are looking to turn a quick profit. I do see many who have already made a nice profit putting that money toward other homes, and this is one reason why prices continue to move.

As for Pulte in LCR, there are sold signs all over the place and their next available home is not ready until late 2007. Sorry SDRealtor, I think you need to do some better research.

Pulte in LCG is moving as well and inventory they had a few months back is completely gone. I’m not betting on 10-15% appreciation YOY, but I am betting against the declines you all suggest and stand by my earlier comment of backing Scruffy’s assessment.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

I understand that many of you here are very strong in your convictions. I’m just sharing what I am seeing in the market. I wish everyone good luck, whether they decide to buy or rent. However, the steep drops that many here are projecting (and have been projecting for some time) are just not happening — not in areas others want to live in. Unless you are looking to buy 40-50 miles out, I’m just not seeing it.

Also, I don’t know many homebuyers today that are looking to turn a quick profit. I do see many who have already made a nice profit putting that money toward other homes, and this is one reason why prices continue to move.

As for Pulte in LCR, there are sold signs all over the place and their next available home is not ready until late 2007. Sorry SDRealtor, I think you need to do some better research.

Pulte in LCG is moving as well and inventory they had a few months back is completely gone. I’m not betting on 10-15% appreciation YOY, but I am betting against the declines you all suggest and stand by my earlier comment of backing Scruffy’s assessment.

[avidsaver]

Quit whining…oh and don’t be late with your rent payment to your landlord.

LOL! someone please archive this post so that we can look at it in a year! This is pure comedy.

[avidsaver]

Quit whining…oh and don’t be late with your rent payment to your landlord.

LOL! someone please archive this post so that we can look at it in a year! This is pure comedy.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

We’ve only started projecting since the last two years. When did Piggington come into existence? That’s nothing compared to the more than 8 years (1998 through 2005)span of run-up. What you see today is not what you will see next year after the major ARM resets per the famous chart. You could spend at least a couple of days at Ben Jones’ blog and you will realize that Piggingtonians are mild in comparison as to conviction. In other housing blogs, they are rabid in their bearish convictions – they feed on each other in Shaedenfreud. It gets very intense/entertaining.

You’re just not seeing it. Maybe you need to see an eye-doctor. Better yet, a doctor who gives a good dose of reality is what you need. What about a Math teacher who teaches extrapolations – the better you can reach a conclusion when looking at the ARM reset chart.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

We’ve only started projecting since the last two years. When did Piggington come into existence? That’s nothing compared to the more than 8 years (1998 through 2005)span of run-up. What you see today is not what you will see next year after the major ARM resets per the famous chart. You could spend at least a couple of days at Ben Jones’ blog and you will realize that Piggingtonians are mild in comparison as to conviction. In other housing blogs, they are rabid in their bearish convictions – they feed on each other in Shaedenfreud. It gets very intense/entertaining.

You’re just not seeing it. Maybe you need to see an eye-doctor. Better yet, a doctor who gives a good dose of reality is what you need. What about a Math teacher who teaches extrapolations – the better you can reach a conclusion when looking at the ARM reset chart.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

We’ll see what appens at the end of the year with interest rates. That is the wild card that will decide what becomes of these ARM resets. I wouldn’t count the Fed’s out just yet and remember, rates are still low (historically speaking). From what I have seen over the past few years, the 10-year bond trends higher during the summer and decreases around mid-to-late July. We’ll see what happens.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

We’ll see what appens at the end of the year with interest rates. That is the wild card that will decide what becomes of these ARM resets. I wouldn’t count the Fed’s out just yet and remember, rates are still low (historically speaking). From what I have seen over the past few years, the 10-year bond trends higher during the summer and decreases around mid-to-late July. We’ll see what happens.

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