housing 10 years from now

[bob007]

Assume inflation and income growth runs at 5% per year.

Assume continued Hispanic immigration, tech outsourcing

Where would housing prices be in 2015 ?

[anxvariety]

2 million dollares senior.

Your HOA will include providing food, entertainment and medical for illegal immigrants that decide to squat on your backyard.

[no_such_reality]

Since peak is right now, we’re ~14.5X per capita income.

Correcting to historical multiplier (7-9) adjusted for 5% inflation will put it at even to 20% below current prices come 2016. An average multiplier of 8 puts it almost exactly at 10% below current prices.

If inflation is 4%, it’ll be more like 8% to 28% below current prices.

And at a 3% it’s more like 17-35% below current prices.

Those are nominal prices too. So a $500K today in the best case is $500K in 2016. However at 5% annual inflation, your $3/gallon gas will be $5/gallon.

[PerryChase]

anxvariety, what do you have against immigrants? By all measures they add to our culture and our economy. We used to have plain foods and boring culture. It’s much more interesting now. Think of all the new restaurants your can choose from.

[Anonymous]

We already have more than enough immigrants for the time being. Diversity is nice, but when the vast majority of immigrants come from a single country, and most of those are illegal, how does that help diversity? If anything it waters down diversity since a single group is dominating the immigrant landscape.

More to anxvariety’s point, the fact is that it is a continuing drain on our social services since so most of the illegals are here to work minimum wage jobs. I hope the US government finally gets their act together and starts enforcing the laws and punishing employers of illegals but I don’t have any confidence that will happen.

In 10 years who knows what affect they will have on housing. Frankly I don’t think the illegal immigrants are going to have much of an impact. Even if their numbers are high, the reality is that as a group the hispanic immigrants have not made significant inroads into higher education or higher salary professional work in comparison to their total percentage of the population. If they continue to draw relatively low wages, they won’t have the power to bid up home prices once the credit bubble crashes and you actually have to have a cash downpayment to even be considered for a mortgage.

Also, like I’ve said before, once the housing crash and the resulting national recession hits full bore, thousands if not millions of illegals will return to their home countries naturally through attrition after realizing there is no work here. I expect a decrease in illegal immigration in the next ten years due to the upcoming recession, even if the government does nothing.

[anxvariety]

I believe that the US and Mexican elite are the only ones to benefit.. it’s just more weight for the middle class. Not cool. I’m not willing to trade tax dollars for more barrios or as you say ‘culture’… I’ll visit Mexico if I’m interested.

[rankandfile]

Perry, the influx of Mexican food is not entirely a bad thing. However, what price do we have to pay for it? Increased crime, increased healthcare and educational costs, increased traffic? I like a carne asada burrito as much as the next guy, but it comes at a steep price. And to the argument that they do the jobs that we American's refuse to do. They do them because employers can pay them cheap wages under the table. Hiring a true citizen involves employers and employees actually playing by the rules and paying the fair share of taxes. Skimming the system only makes it more expensive for the rest of us that do things the right way. Another thing is that is perhaps the most worrisome is that there is a huge groundswell of illegal (and legal) Mexican immigrants who aim to conver American into Northern Mexico, rather than assimilate into society (e.g., Aztlan, MEChA, and La Raza).

European and Asian immigrants, and even Hispanic immigrants strived to become Americans…not bring convert America to their former countries.  I know my forebears stressed that their children learn English and excel in education.  What we often see in certain parts of the Latino community, particularly SoCal, is that they want to convert it to Mexifornia.  I think similar statements hold true for some factions of the Muslim society who seek to convert us rather than try to assimilate.  By assimilate, I don't expect them to completely forget their culture, but rather accentuate our own American culture with theirs.

[PD]

I agree with rankandfile. My great-grandparents homesteaded here from Denmark. My grandfather spoke Danish as his first language as did most of the transplanted community. However, the community felt that they should all speak English. After that, they stopped having church services in Danish (switched to English) and tried to speak English at home.

[PerryChase]

I’m far from elite but I really fail to see how immigrants hurt us. They bring talent, work ethic and dynamism to our country. Our economy grows thanks to immigrants. Recent immigrants do work that natives shun and that allow established citizens to concentrate on more productive things. For example if a Mexican immigrant does your gardening, you have more time to read, study and spend with your family. He’s grateful for the work and you benefit too. If a foreign scientist comes to America, he helps develop technologies that benefit us all. Isn’t that a win-win?

The key is that it’s our individual responsibility to constantly upgrade our skills so we can be productive.

Yes, immigrants use public services but they also pay more in taxes. As far as the under-the-table thing, it’s up to business owners to abide by the rules — immigrants are not the problem.

What’s wrong if people speak Spanish? If one doesn’t understand, perhaps one should learn and grow. I took 6 years of Spanish so I’m ok with that. Actually, I would love to be able to practice more. Speaking multiple languages has never hurt anyone. People in Luxembourg and Switzerland all speak 3 languages. In Scandinavian countries people all speak their native language and English at the same time. I don’t think the problem is that we speak too many languages in America.

I believe that multiculturalism is wonderful and enrich us all. And if one doesn’t like ethnic neighborhoods, one can easily remain in neighborhoods such as Carmel Valley.

Immigrant bashing is all xenophobia to me. And remember, without new arrivals, real estate prices can only go down.

[PD]

Speaking multiple languages is something that I think all Americans should strive toward. However, English is the official language and business should be conducted in English. Immigrants know when they come here that English is the language of the land. They should be expected to learn it. We should not be pandering to them.

As for immigrants paying taxes, many of them do. However, they pay far less in taxes than the community ends up spending on them. Some immigration is healthy but floods of illegals coming across the border is not.

[bob007]

i am an immigrant myself. i am not opposed to Mexican immigration as long as people understand the consequences. Influx of 1 million plus low skilled low wage Spanish immigrants from Mexico will transform USA into an improved version of Brazil.

The only use to American society is that they provide cannon fodder for US infantry should the likes of Bush want to conquer the Middle East.

[Anonymous]

At the current rate of hispanic immigration and job outsourcing, the US is on the road to thirld world status, where elites control everything and the majority of the population is lower middle class or poor. An improved version of Brazil is a good analogy.

In 20 years, Americans moving to Mexico may become very popular. At least if you are going to be surrounded by Mexicans, you should be able to enjoy “real” Mexican culture and food. Mexican food in the US (including SD) is extremely watered down. The Mexican immigrant culture in the US is a deformed and ugly version of the real thing (way more nacos, pochos, chollos, etc. over here).

[svferris]

“For example if a Mexican immigrant does your gardening, you have more time to read, study and spend with your family. He’s grateful for the work and you benefit too.”

What about the gardener down the street who is an American citizen who can’t get a job because the immigrant comes over and takes less pay (under-the-table). If the average person has to choose whether to pay $100 to get their lawn cut by a citizen or $50 by an immigrant, guess which they’ll choose?

“If a foreign scientist comes to America, he helps develop technologies that benefit us all.”

I really don’t think this is a valid argument. How many scientists do you know that are climbing the border fence in San Ysidro so they can come develop technologies here? I don’t think anybody is arguing against foreign scientists legally coming over here and practicing.

[Diego Mamani]

This is probably the ugliest thread ever in this forum, with all those xenophobic, wannabe klansmen. We are currently experiencing a wave of anti-immigrant sentiment, like the one we had in 1994 (which gave us the infamous Prop 187 if I remember the name correctly). This wave will subside, like others in the past, and will resurface in the future.

I guess racism is cyclical, like real estate.

[Anonymous]

Give me a break Diego. What is racist about prop 187? I challenge you to name another country that permits illegal residents to collect benefits and social services.

If I went to Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, etc. and worked illegally do you think they woudn’t deport my ass or throw me in jail? I guarantee they won’t be offering me social services.

[Author]

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