If housing is soo bad, and umemployment is so bad, and your neighbors are closing shop or losing their jobs left and right, would you have the stomach to make a big purchase at that time?
Remember that it is best to buy when there’s blood on the streets, even if it’s your own blood. People who bought houses in the mid 1990s made small fortunes, enough to retire early if they sold at the peak. But many didn’t want to buy in the mid 90s: the herd mentality dictated that real estate was a lousy investment.
I agree with you that timing the bottom is nearly impossible. However, when I think that there’s enough blood on the streets and that RE is discredited enough, then I might buy again.
SD R,
I wouldnt write it off to fraud so quickly. I have sold houses where the MLS data was accurate as reported and the realist data was wrong (i.e. much more than it sold for). there was no monkey business and I told my client to contact the assessor to make sure they arent being charged RE taxes on the higher amount. This is jsut one example and may not be the case of the one Carlsbadliving brought up. Nonetheless, there are mistakes in the tax records.
There is price protection floors at each level, just as there is with the stock market. I would be suspect of anything that closes over asking prices right now but for every 5% drop in nominal price, another group of the population qualifies for the purchase. Logically if homes are priced lower than the month before, more potential buyers exist at those levels. The incredibly difficult part is the emotional component doesn’t always follow logic, on the way up or way down. The other variable is that lending is tightening and loan programs are being phased out making it harder to figure it all out because the market has lost an unknown number of potential buyers right off the top (actually bottom), your guess is as good as mine as to how much of a percentage drop is required to recoup the number lost.
Good point… As you stated there have often been errors in the Realist tax roll… So yep maybe fraud maybe not. Sorry I cannot find any more info for you CarlsbadL…
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