Homebuilder Stocks

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]As I’ve said before, I expect at a minimum prices to correct to pre-Covid levels. Beyond that, really depends on when the Fed decides to pivot and turn the spigot back on.

I have no particular plans regarding RE, other than sitting back, eating my popcorn and enjoying watching the carnage. If Fed turns the spigot back on, my plan will be to buy a lot more gold and bitcoin.[/quote]

Bookmarked

So when is 4 trillion dollar bonfire when all that money disappears? Meow

[Coronita]

Again, you’re trying to justify your decisions you made 10-12 years ago by trying to pretend to be an economist.

Reality dude is that you’ve been on the fence since 2010-2012. The average amount you paid for rent is probably around $2000/month for the past 10-12 years, give or take. So that’s $240,000 you’ve been sending to a landlord.

$240k is halfway to what paying off a nice 2/2 townhome in 92130 would have been that is now $800k+.

$240k would have paid off a 2/2 condo in 92126 with change left over, and you would be free clear with no other major housing expense forever, and you would have had around $200k additional equity on top of that.

Forget about appreciation, you’re housing costs would have been fixed and even gone down as you refinanced…Even folks that overpaid and bought in the worst times in 2004,5,6,7 but were able to hold on and keep their primary would have been fine.

Eventually, whenever you buy, the total amount will have spent on housing in general is at least $240k more than anyone else that needed housing since 2010-2012 that purchased anywhere along that time, and give or take another 2-3 year’s that you’ll be waiting, that grow to $288k-$312k or more from rent. This is different for folks that are just starting out and weren’t old enough to buy back then, but you’ve been around the block since 2000 as you say since you were a dot.com worker, so you’re no spring chicken.

Let that sink in. It doesn’t matter how you slice and dice it. That’s reality. So, understandably, that’s why you’ll need a steep discount even to break even.

[gzz]

I reduced my net long in the stock market today.

Trimmed back a lot of my winners by 10-20%. Opened very small short positions in Snow, nvda, msft, unity software, and home depot. Increased my short in lyft and wework.

Went long twtr and increased my position in T. P/E of only 7!

[Coronita]

[quote=gzz]I reduced my net long in the stock market today.

Trimmed back a lot of my winners by 10-20%. Opened very small short positions in Snow, nvda, msft, unity software, and home depot. Increased my short in lyft and wework.

Went long twtr and increased my position in T. P/E of only 7![/quote]

lol..um…ok….

[gzz]

“ Forget about appreciation”

No thanks. Appreciation is unforgettable. My 30k in downpayment and renovations on my primary residence 10.5 years ago resulted in an unrealized capital gain of about $1.1 million.

While it is nice to have a mostly tax deductible mortgage of $1800 on a house that would rent for about $4200, this appreciable appreciation is what I most appreciate.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=gzz]“ Forget about appreciation”

No thanks. Appreciation is unforgettable. My 30k in downpayment and renovations on my primary residence 10.5 years ago resulted in an unrealized capital gain of about $1.1 million.

While it is nice to have a mostly tax deductible mortgage of $1800 on a house that would rent for about $4200, this appreciable appreciation is what I most appreciate.[/quote]

Opportunity of a lifetime

[gzz]

“So when is 4 trillion dollar bonfire when all that money disappears?”

Yep.

All the Fed will do is very gradually swap its bond stockpile for dollars.

Bonds unlike dollars cannot be used as reserves as a base for bank loans. So in theory and classically, the fed reversing its prior policy and reducing money by replacing it with bonds is contractionary.

Now, however, the banking system isn’t short of reserves, willing but unable to make more loans.

Moreover, financial innovations has greatly reduced the significance of the difference between bonds and dollars. That’s why the Fed’s huge increase in its balance sheet didn’t much affect the real economy.

[Coronita]

.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]Again, you’re trying to justify your decisions you made 10-12 years ago by trying to pretend to be an economist.

[/quote]

Stop trying to be an A-hole like SDR, what decisions I or anyone else made 10 years ago has no relevance today. You two are the ones living in the past. The reality is today we are in a massive bubble that is on the verge of crashing. 30 year up to 5.25% today and still going up. Asset markets are primed for a monumental crash.

Again don’t blame me, I’m just the messenger. The Fed and corrupt government controlled by Wall St. got us into this mess, not me. They are also the reasons your RE assets are so inflated right now. But fantasy land doesn’t last forever.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=gzz]I reduced my net long in the stock market today.

Trimmed back a lot of my winners by 10-20%. Opened very small short positions in Snow, nvda, msft, unity software, and home depot. Increased my short in lyft and wework.

Went long twtr and increased my position in T. P/E of only 7![/quote]

lol..um…ok….[/quote]

What’s the LOL part, the long Twitter?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]Again, you’re trying to justify your decisions you made 10-12 years ago by trying to pretend to be an economist.

[/quote]

Stop trying to be an A-hole like SDR, what decisions I or anyone else made 10 years ago has no relevance today. You two are the ones living in the past. The reality is today we are in a massive bubble that is on the verge of crashing. 30 year up to 5.25% today and still going up. Asset markets are primed for a monumental crash.

Again don’t blame me, I’m just the messenger. The Fed and corrupt government controlled by Wall St. got us into this mess, not me. They are also the reasons your RE assets are so inflated right now. But fantasy land doesn’t last forever.[/quote]

The relevance is you have been consistently wrong for over a decade but suddenly you have become the Amazing Kreskin!

Loans widely available at 4.75%! Operators are standing by!

Wonder when all the advertising of loans will switch to 5,7 and 10/1 ARM’s

Betting window is open! Meow

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]Again, you’re trying to justify your decisions you made 10-12 years ago by trying to pretend to be an economist.

[/quote]

Stop trying to be an A-hole like SDR, what decisions I or anyone else made 10 years ago has no relevance today. You two are the ones living in the past. The reality is today we are in a massive bubble that is on the verge of crashing. 30 year up to 5.25% today and still going up. Asset markets are primed for a monumental crash.

Again don’t blame me, I’m just the messenger. The Fed and corrupt government controlled by Wall St. got us into this mess, not me. They are also the reasons your RE assets are so inflated right now. But fantasy land doesn’t last forever.[/quote]

Lol. Um I don’t wish bad on others for personal gain. That’s your department. You said it yourself several times. I’m just here for the entertainment value of your posts.

And your past decisions is completely relevant to your posts because it’s a reflection of how accurate your convictions are to the practical day to day decision making that are made wrto personal finance.

I’m merely pointing out that rather than focus so much attention in so many one hit wonders, you’ve traded off huge opportunity costs that is going to take a huge windfall to make up the difference. No different that your difference to try to outsmart the system by foregoing decades of DRIP style investments in the stock market that in a monthly basis would have been effortless, but now will take also a one shot high risk gamble to come out just even relative to the dumber DRIP and forget approach….something that apparently is very difficult for you to process and acknowledge that it wasnt a very good long term strategy……nothing you’ve done suggests you are smarter then the vast majority of the population or that your decisions in the past would accomplish better results than the majority of the population that you think is dumber than you….and the results for the past decades (not just a few single years) seems to support this assertion. Just saying. Again, you are trying too hard to be right in order to stay relevant.

[Anonymous]

Yes many folks have been predicting the next crash for years because it is inevitable with massive QE and our bubble economy. But you guys don’t even seem to acknowledge that a bubble exists so there is no point debating you as we are simply on different wavelengths.

But right now the crash is occurring right before all of our eyes, in slow motion. I am not predicting anything, it is happening. The Fed has repeatedly publicly announced they are taking the punch bowl away and the crazy inflation reports are forcing them to stick to that plan. They are in the process of reversing the policies that caused this bubble.

If you believe in the “soft landing” scenario, can you give me an example of a bubble that ended with a soft landing?

[sdrealtor]

You are delusional if you think a crash is happening right before our eyes. In a crash all asset classes are plummenting and nothing like that is happening. What we are seeing is growth stock correction and the typical sector rotation into value stocks on Wall Street. For example LLY and ABBV are close to all time high. XOM is back to levels it hasnt seen in years and close to all time highs. Just spoke to a friend in the scrap metal business today. He’s never had it so good.

Real estate is at all time highs with multiple offers still the rule. Are you reading the weekly reports I post? That is data not hopes and dreams, its what is happening on the streets here and now. You are hoping for things and imagining them. None of us are saying things wont go down and yes a crash is always a possibility. But nothing out there says crash at the moment.

And if there is one those of us who have dedicated ourselves to invest wisely over the long term will be poised to exploit one. We operate in the real world while you live in the land of hopes and dreams.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]You are delusional if you think a crash is happening right before our eyes. In a crash all asset classes are plummenting and nothing like that is happening. What we are seeing is growth stock correction and the typical sector rotation into value stocks on Wall Street. For example LLY and ABBV are close to all time high. XOM is back to levels it hasnt seen in years and close to all time highs. Just spoke to a friend in the scrap metal business today. He’s never had it so good.

Real estate is at all time highs with multiple offers still the rule. Are you reading the weekly reports I post? That is data not hopes and dreams, its what is happening on the streets here and now. You are hoping for things and imagining them. None of us are saying things wont go down and yes a crash is always a possibility. But nothing out there says crash at the moment.

And if there is one those of us who have dedicated ourselves to invest wisely over the long term will be poised to exploit one. We operate in the real world while you live in the land of hopes and dreams.[/quote]
Don’t be a party pooper!

I’m very hopeful that deadzone is right and I can have one more chance to pick up a couple more houses at 2019 level. I am kicking myself for being too skittish in 2019-2020.

[Author]

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