Help me see the bottom

[sdduuuude]

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[sdduuuude]

[quote=housepoor]When people can again afford homes is when we will start to see them be purchased. [/quote]

I don’t think that is exactly the bottom. You will know the bottom is here or near when everyone knows homes are a deal, but nobody can get a loan to make the purchase of a lifetime.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=housepoor]When people can again afford homes is when we will start to see them be purchased. [/quote]

I don’t think that is exactly the bottom. You will know the bottom is here or near when everyone knows homes are a deal, but nobody can get a loan to make the purchase of a lifetime.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=housepoor]When people can again afford homes is when we will start to see them be purchased. [/quote]

I don’t think that is exactly the bottom. You will know the bottom is here or near when everyone knows homes are a deal, but nobody can get a loan to make the purchase of a lifetime.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=housepoor]When people can again afford homes is when we will start to see them be purchased. [/quote]

I don’t think that is exactly the bottom. You will know the bottom is here or near when everyone knows homes are a deal, but nobody can get a loan to make the purchase of a lifetime.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=housepoor]When people can again afford homes is when we will start to see them be purchased. [/quote]

I don’t think that is exactly the bottom. You will know the bottom is here or near when everyone knows homes are a deal, but nobody can get a loan to make the purchase of a lifetime.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t know if it’s a good way to find the bottom, but here’s how I look at it :
Real estate makes sense to purchase when the numbers work out. If you run the numbers on a certain area/property type and it makes sense to own it strictly from an investor’s standpoint, then it makes sense to jump in.
By this criterion, you may not hit bottom, but at least you will be close enough not to get burned.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t know if it’s a good way to find the bottom, but here’s how I look at it :
Real estate makes sense to purchase when the numbers work out. If you run the numbers on a certain area/property type and it makes sense to own it strictly from an investor’s standpoint, then it makes sense to jump in.
By this criterion, you may not hit bottom, but at least you will be close enough not to get burned.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t know if it’s a good way to find the bottom, but here’s how I look at it :
Real estate makes sense to purchase when the numbers work out. If you run the numbers on a certain area/property type and it makes sense to own it strictly from an investor’s standpoint, then it makes sense to jump in.
By this criterion, you may not hit bottom, but at least you will be close enough not to get burned.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t know if it’s a good way to find the bottom, but here’s how I look at it :
Real estate makes sense to purchase when the numbers work out. If you run the numbers on a certain area/property type and it makes sense to own it strictly from an investor’s standpoint, then it makes sense to jump in.
By this criterion, you may not hit bottom, but at least you will be close enough not to get burned.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t know if it’s a good way to find the bottom, but here’s how I look at it :
Real estate makes sense to purchase when the numbers work out. If you run the numbers on a certain area/property type and it makes sense to own it strictly from an investor’s standpoint, then it makes sense to jump in.
By this criterion, you may not hit bottom, but at least you will be close enough not to get burned.

[housepoor]

all,

Thanks for the response. I will absolutely give you that these ratios I am curious about will not perfectly predict the bottom, but there would be some insight gained by understanding what sort of ownership rates an area (“SD county”, “so cal”) typically has.

I guess Ill try to pose it in a different way: Lets suppose that both wages and prices just stopped moving completely as of today. What reason would we have for believing they would have to move? I mean, people aren’t homeless right now who have gone through foreclosures. They have moved into a lesser neighborhood, or moved to Primm, NV or something. I guess what I am confused by is why we can’t be done moving down as of now.

What’s so special about Rich’s average red line on that graph posted by doofrat? Why do we need to get to there? I guess also what I am thinking as part of this is, couldn’t we easily see people’s preference for renting vs buying change so much so that the push to this historical average falls short? or is there a magical ownership rate that we should expect to see? and why isnt it 100%? or is it?

Eh, I am making no sense anymore. But i am going to post anyone just because. Again thanks for the help… If anyone wanted to keep rambling with me, Id be interested.

(Finally, I just reread my post and it sounds like I am angling for the bottom to be today. I really dont think that at all, and I want to make that clear. My question is ust posed that way. My gut absolutely tells me that we have years to go, but my brain speaks english and my gut speaks some weird language only identical twins know)

[housepoor]

all,

Thanks for the response. I will absolutely give you that these ratios I am curious about will not perfectly predict the bottom, but there would be some insight gained by understanding what sort of ownership rates an area (“SD county”, “so cal”) typically has.

I guess Ill try to pose it in a different way: Lets suppose that both wages and prices just stopped moving completely as of today. What reason would we have for believing they would have to move? I mean, people aren’t homeless right now who have gone through foreclosures. They have moved into a lesser neighborhood, or moved to Primm, NV or something. I guess what I am confused by is why we can’t be done moving down as of now.

What’s so special about Rich’s average red line on that graph posted by doofrat? Why do we need to get to there? I guess also what I am thinking as part of this is, couldn’t we easily see people’s preference for renting vs buying change so much so that the push to this historical average falls short? or is there a magical ownership rate that we should expect to see? and why isnt it 100%? or is it?

Eh, I am making no sense anymore. But i am going to post anyone just because. Again thanks for the help… If anyone wanted to keep rambling with me, Id be interested.

(Finally, I just reread my post and it sounds like I am angling for the bottom to be today. I really dont think that at all, and I want to make that clear. My question is ust posed that way. My gut absolutely tells me that we have years to go, but my brain speaks english and my gut speaks some weird language only identical twins know)

[housepoor]

all,

Thanks for the response. I will absolutely give you that these ratios I am curious about will not perfectly predict the bottom, but there would be some insight gained by understanding what sort of ownership rates an area (“SD county”, “so cal”) typically has.

I guess Ill try to pose it in a different way: Lets suppose that both wages and prices just stopped moving completely as of today. What reason would we have for believing they would have to move? I mean, people aren’t homeless right now who have gone through foreclosures. They have moved into a lesser neighborhood, or moved to Primm, NV or something. I guess what I am confused by is why we can’t be done moving down as of now.

What’s so special about Rich’s average red line on that graph posted by doofrat? Why do we need to get to there? I guess also what I am thinking as part of this is, couldn’t we easily see people’s preference for renting vs buying change so much so that the push to this historical average falls short? or is there a magical ownership rate that we should expect to see? and why isnt it 100%? or is it?

Eh, I am making no sense anymore. But i am going to post anyone just because. Again thanks for the help… If anyone wanted to keep rambling with me, Id be interested.

(Finally, I just reread my post and it sounds like I am angling for the bottom to be today. I really dont think that at all, and I want to make that clear. My question is ust posed that way. My gut absolutely tells me that we have years to go, but my brain speaks english and my gut speaks some weird language only identical twins know)

[housepoor]

all,

Thanks for the response. I will absolutely give you that these ratios I am curious about will not perfectly predict the bottom, but there would be some insight gained by understanding what sort of ownership rates an area (“SD county”, “so cal”) typically has.

I guess Ill try to pose it in a different way: Lets suppose that both wages and prices just stopped moving completely as of today. What reason would we have for believing they would have to move? I mean, people aren’t homeless right now who have gone through foreclosures. They have moved into a lesser neighborhood, or moved to Primm, NV or something. I guess what I am confused by is why we can’t be done moving down as of now.

What’s so special about Rich’s average red line on that graph posted by doofrat? Why do we need to get to there? I guess also what I am thinking as part of this is, couldn’t we easily see people’s preference for renting vs buying change so much so that the push to this historical average falls short? or is there a magical ownership rate that we should expect to see? and why isnt it 100%? or is it?

Eh, I am making no sense anymore. But i am going to post anyone just because. Again thanks for the help… If anyone wanted to keep rambling with me, Id be interested.

(Finally, I just reread my post and it sounds like I am angling for the bottom to be today. I really dont think that at all, and I want to make that clear. My question is ust posed that way. My gut absolutely tells me that we have years to go, but my brain speaks english and my gut speaks some weird language only identical twins know)

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