Have home prices bottomed out? (MarketWatch)

[macromaniac]

Barnaby, you are correct! Wages did not inflate but everything else, non electronics, did….so you have to go to 1999 / 2000 pricing to even be close to any bottom and we should overshoot….

[peterb]

Home prices are geared to wages and available credit. 2002 to 2007 was about the biggest credit expansion in history, not wage increases. So now that we’re seeing credit implode, prices are going with it. More foreclosures are coming from being upside down and growing unemployment. Credit card implosion is happening right now. Bottom, no way!

[peterb]

Home prices are geared to wages and available credit. 2002 to 2007 was about the biggest credit expansion in history, not wage increases. So now that we’re seeing credit implode, prices are going with it. More foreclosures are coming from being upside down and growing unemployment. Credit card implosion is happening right now. Bottom, no way!

[peterb]

Home prices are geared to wages and available credit. 2002 to 2007 was about the biggest credit expansion in history, not wage increases. So now that we’re seeing credit implode, prices are going with it. More foreclosures are coming from being upside down and growing unemployment. Credit card implosion is happening right now. Bottom, no way!

[peterb]

Home prices are geared to wages and available credit. 2002 to 2007 was about the biggest credit expansion in history, not wage increases. So now that we’re seeing credit implode, prices are going with it. More foreclosures are coming from being upside down and growing unemployment. Credit card implosion is happening right now. Bottom, no way!

[peterb]

Home prices are geared to wages and available credit. 2002 to 2007 was about the biggest credit expansion in history, not wage increases. So now that we’re seeing credit implode, prices are going with it. More foreclosures are coming from being upside down and growing unemployment. Credit card implosion is happening right now. Bottom, no way!

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK I will take the Contrarian stance ,

I say that whether the housing market has bottomed in SoCal has more to do with the economy than price income levels (they rarely match that well in Socal anyway, there has always been a SoCal premium in L.A. county and I think in the last 10- 15 years now San Diego county has joined that club (I also think housing in Socal is becoming a lot more like Europe or Asia where rents don’t match home prices all that closely).

Not saying SD has hit absolute bottom here but where it goes is more a function of the economy now than income/price levels.

Anyway they have that old saying don’t fight the fed, but now it is don’t fight the fed, the bank of England, the bank of France, the bank of Germany , the bank of Japan Etc…. the list goes on…

Sooner or later (I think sometime around the start of 2010), they are going to turn the economy around. I know it sounds improbable right now but I think it’s very possible,

One side note, Once the banks get somewhat sorted out I think Gold will lose a lot of it’s safe haven status (just my two cents).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK I will take the Contrarian stance ,

I say that whether the housing market has bottomed in SoCal has more to do with the economy than price income levels (they rarely match that well in Socal anyway, there has always been a SoCal premium in L.A. county and I think in the last 10- 15 years now San Diego county has joined that club (I also think housing in Socal is becoming a lot more like Europe or Asia where rents don’t match home prices all that closely).

Not saying SD has hit absolute bottom here but where it goes is more a function of the economy now than income/price levels.

Anyway they have that old saying don’t fight the fed, but now it is don’t fight the fed, the bank of England, the bank of France, the bank of Germany , the bank of Japan Etc…. the list goes on…

Sooner or later (I think sometime around the start of 2010), they are going to turn the economy around. I know it sounds improbable right now but I think it’s very possible,

One side note, Once the banks get somewhat sorted out I think Gold will lose a lot of it’s safe haven status (just my two cents).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK I will take the Contrarian stance ,

I say that whether the housing market has bottomed in SoCal has more to do with the economy than price income levels (they rarely match that well in Socal anyway, there has always been a SoCal premium in L.A. county and I think in the last 10- 15 years now San Diego county has joined that club (I also think housing in Socal is becoming a lot more like Europe or Asia where rents don’t match home prices all that closely).

Not saying SD has hit absolute bottom here but where it goes is more a function of the economy now than income/price levels.

Anyway they have that old saying don’t fight the fed, but now it is don’t fight the fed, the bank of England, the bank of France, the bank of Germany , the bank of Japan Etc…. the list goes on…

Sooner or later (I think sometime around the start of 2010), they are going to turn the economy around. I know it sounds improbable right now but I think it’s very possible,

One side note, Once the banks get somewhat sorted out I think Gold will lose a lot of it’s safe haven status (just my two cents).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK I will take the Contrarian stance ,

I say that whether the housing market has bottomed in SoCal has more to do with the economy than price income levels (they rarely match that well in Socal anyway, there has always been a SoCal premium in L.A. county and I think in the last 10- 15 years now San Diego county has joined that club (I also think housing in Socal is becoming a lot more like Europe or Asia where rents don’t match home prices all that closely).

Not saying SD has hit absolute bottom here but where it goes is more a function of the economy now than income/price levels.

Anyway they have that old saying don’t fight the fed, but now it is don’t fight the fed, the bank of England, the bank of France, the bank of Germany , the bank of Japan Etc…. the list goes on…

Sooner or later (I think sometime around the start of 2010), they are going to turn the economy around. I know it sounds improbable right now but I think it’s very possible,

One side note, Once the banks get somewhat sorted out I think Gold will lose a lot of it’s safe haven status (just my two cents).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK I will take the Contrarian stance ,

I say that whether the housing market has bottomed in SoCal has more to do with the economy than price income levels (they rarely match that well in Socal anyway, there has always been a SoCal premium in L.A. county and I think in the last 10- 15 years now San Diego county has joined that club (I also think housing in Socal is becoming a lot more like Europe or Asia where rents don’t match home prices all that closely).

Not saying SD has hit absolute bottom here but where it goes is more a function of the economy now than income/price levels.

Anyway they have that old saying don’t fight the fed, but now it is don’t fight the fed, the bank of England, the bank of France, the bank of Germany , the bank of Japan Etc…. the list goes on…

Sooner or later (I think sometime around the start of 2010), they are going to turn the economy around. I know it sounds improbable right now but I think it’s very possible,

One side note, Once the banks get somewhat sorted out I think Gold will lose a lot of it’s safe haven status (just my two cents).

[SDEngineer]

[quote=macromaniac]Barnaby, you are correct! Wages did not inflate but everything else, non electronics, did….so you have to go to 1999 / 2000 pricing to even be close to any bottom and we should overshoot….[/quote]

Wages did inflate, just at a rate short of the real inflation rate (or even for that matter, the fake inflation rate that the government uses that understates inflation), at least nationally -though the gist is correct – historically, housing has inflated at the rate of wage inflation, or very close to it.

Based on average income gain in San Diego circa 2000 (2000 census put SD household income at $47.5K, 2008 was estimated at $66.7K) a gain of about 40% is justifiable from 2000. Based on the available numbers, San Diego had more wage inflation than most areas of the country – possibly a side affect of the skyrocketing standard of living on the west coast due to the housing bubble.

Assuming 2000 was about on the long term trendline (it was close, anyway, and before the hyperinflation of property values kicked in), the recent Case-Shiller numbers have us only about 10% above the long term trendline (I believe the most recent had us at about 155, and as a lagging indicator based on data in the Oct-Dec timeframe, it’s probably in the 140’s now).

Of course, different regions within San Diego have fallen at different rates – the bottom may be close in the harder hit outlying and older areas of the city, while some of the newer and coastal (and until recently “immune”) areas like CV and 4S probably still have quite a ways to fall.

Though, as you mentioned, we will probably overshoot on the way down before we finally revert to the long term trendline. There’s little doubt that unemployment, underemployment, and the other ills that the current economy is causing will also push housing lower before it recovers.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=macromaniac]Barnaby, you are correct! Wages did not inflate but everything else, non electronics, did….so you have to go to 1999 / 2000 pricing to even be close to any bottom and we should overshoot….[/quote]

Wages did inflate, just at a rate short of the real inflation rate (or even for that matter, the fake inflation rate that the government uses that understates inflation), at least nationally -though the gist is correct – historically, housing has inflated at the rate of wage inflation, or very close to it.

Based on average income gain in San Diego circa 2000 (2000 census put SD household income at $47.5K, 2008 was estimated at $66.7K) a gain of about 40% is justifiable from 2000. Based on the available numbers, San Diego had more wage inflation than most areas of the country – possibly a side affect of the skyrocketing standard of living on the west coast due to the housing bubble.

Assuming 2000 was about on the long term trendline (it was close, anyway, and before the hyperinflation of property values kicked in), the recent Case-Shiller numbers have us only about 10% above the long term trendline (I believe the most recent had us at about 155, and as a lagging indicator based on data in the Oct-Dec timeframe, it’s probably in the 140’s now).

Of course, different regions within San Diego have fallen at different rates – the bottom may be close in the harder hit outlying and older areas of the city, while some of the newer and coastal (and until recently “immune”) areas like CV and 4S probably still have quite a ways to fall.

Though, as you mentioned, we will probably overshoot on the way down before we finally revert to the long term trendline. There’s little doubt that unemployment, underemployment, and the other ills that the current economy is causing will also push housing lower before it recovers.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=macromaniac]Barnaby, you are correct! Wages did not inflate but everything else, non electronics, did….so you have to go to 1999 / 2000 pricing to even be close to any bottom and we should overshoot….[/quote]

Wages did inflate, just at a rate short of the real inflation rate (or even for that matter, the fake inflation rate that the government uses that understates inflation), at least nationally -though the gist is correct – historically, housing has inflated at the rate of wage inflation, or very close to it.

Based on average income gain in San Diego circa 2000 (2000 census put SD household income at $47.5K, 2008 was estimated at $66.7K) a gain of about 40% is justifiable from 2000. Based on the available numbers, San Diego had more wage inflation than most areas of the country – possibly a side affect of the skyrocketing standard of living on the west coast due to the housing bubble.

Assuming 2000 was about on the long term trendline (it was close, anyway, and before the hyperinflation of property values kicked in), the recent Case-Shiller numbers have us only about 10% above the long term trendline (I believe the most recent had us at about 155, and as a lagging indicator based on data in the Oct-Dec timeframe, it’s probably in the 140’s now).

Of course, different regions within San Diego have fallen at different rates – the bottom may be close in the harder hit outlying and older areas of the city, while some of the newer and coastal (and until recently “immune”) areas like CV and 4S probably still have quite a ways to fall.

Though, as you mentioned, we will probably overshoot on the way down before we finally revert to the long term trendline. There’s little doubt that unemployment, underemployment, and the other ills that the current economy is causing will also push housing lower before it recovers.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=macromaniac]Barnaby, you are correct! Wages did not inflate but everything else, non electronics, did….so you have to go to 1999 / 2000 pricing to even be close to any bottom and we should overshoot….[/quote]

Wages did inflate, just at a rate short of the real inflation rate (or even for that matter, the fake inflation rate that the government uses that understates inflation), at least nationally -though the gist is correct – historically, housing has inflated at the rate of wage inflation, or very close to it.

Based on average income gain in San Diego circa 2000 (2000 census put SD household income at $47.5K, 2008 was estimated at $66.7K) a gain of about 40% is justifiable from 2000. Based on the available numbers, San Diego had more wage inflation than most areas of the country – possibly a side affect of the skyrocketing standard of living on the west coast due to the housing bubble.

Assuming 2000 was about on the long term trendline (it was close, anyway, and before the hyperinflation of property values kicked in), the recent Case-Shiller numbers have us only about 10% above the long term trendline (I believe the most recent had us at about 155, and as a lagging indicator based on data in the Oct-Dec timeframe, it’s probably in the 140’s now).

Of course, different regions within San Diego have fallen at different rates – the bottom may be close in the harder hit outlying and older areas of the city, while some of the newer and coastal (and until recently “immune”) areas like CV and 4S probably still have quite a ways to fall.

Though, as you mentioned, we will probably overshoot on the way down before we finally revert to the long term trendline. There’s little doubt that unemployment, underemployment, and the other ills that the current economy is causing will also push housing lower before it recovers.

[Author]

Posts