Have home prices bottomed out? (MarketWatch)

[kev374]

[quote=underdose]Why do you say no more than 30% for inflation? That is an extremely modest 3-4% per year, and the arguably grossly understated CPI was running 6% for much of the bubble.[/quote]

home prices match income inflation not CPI. Real income has fallen during the last 10 years so affordability and prices will decline accordingly. Right now due to the severe unemployment situation prices will correct even more than that.

[kev374]

[quote=underdose]Why do you say no more than 30% for inflation? That is an extremely modest 3-4% per year, and the arguably grossly understated CPI was running 6% for much of the bubble.[/quote]

home prices match income inflation not CPI. Real income has fallen during the last 10 years so affordability and prices will decline accordingly. Right now due to the severe unemployment situation prices will correct even more than that.

[kev374]

[quote=underdose]Why do you say no more than 30% for inflation? That is an extremely modest 3-4% per year, and the arguably grossly understated CPI was running 6% for much of the bubble.[/quote]

home prices match income inflation not CPI. Real income has fallen during the last 10 years so affordability and prices will decline accordingly. Right now due to the severe unemployment situation prices will correct even more than that.

[kev374]

[quote=underdose]Why do you say no more than 30% for inflation? That is an extremely modest 3-4% per year, and the arguably grossly understated CPI was running 6% for much of the bubble.[/quote]

home prices match income inflation not CPI. Real income has fallen during the last 10 years so affordability and prices will decline accordingly. Right now due to the severe unemployment situation prices will correct even more than that.

[kev374]

[quote=underdose]Why do you say no more than 30% for inflation? That is an extremely modest 3-4% per year, and the arguably grossly understated CPI was running 6% for much of the bubble.[/quote]

home prices match income inflation not CPI. Real income has fallen during the last 10 years so affordability and prices will decline accordingly. Right now due to the severe unemployment situation prices will correct even more than that.

[kev374]

[quote=underdose]Why do you say no more than 30% for inflation? That is an extremely modest 3-4% per year, and the arguably grossly understated CPI was running 6% for much of the bubble.[/quote]

home prices match income inflation not CPI. Real income has fallen during the last 10 years so affordability and prices will decline accordingly. Right now due to the severe unemployment situation prices will correct even more than that.

[DWCAP]

My problems with this article.

a) It has no numbers I can see. It just states that median housing is now about 2.9X median income. It doesnt say what either actually is. This would be helpful to know.

b) It uses a national scene. All Real Estate is local, and I dont think anyone looking to buy their first house in San Diego really cares that they could buy 5X the house in Detroit. Saying national numbers look similar to national numbers in past times that were better; so therefore it must be a good time to buy is just dumb.

[DWCAP]

My problems with this article.

a) It has no numbers I can see. It just states that median housing is now about 2.9X median income. It doesnt say what either actually is. This would be helpful to know.

b) It uses a national scene. All Real Estate is local, and I dont think anyone looking to buy their first house in San Diego really cares that they could buy 5X the house in Detroit. Saying national numbers look similar to national numbers in past times that were better; so therefore it must be a good time to buy is just dumb.

[DWCAP]

My problems with this article.

a) It has no numbers I can see. It just states that median housing is now about 2.9X median income. It doesnt say what either actually is. This would be helpful to know.

b) It uses a national scene. All Real Estate is local, and I dont think anyone looking to buy their first house in San Diego really cares that they could buy 5X the house in Detroit. Saying national numbers look similar to national numbers in past times that were better; so therefore it must be a good time to buy is just dumb.

[DWCAP]

My problems with this article.

a) It has no numbers I can see. It just states that median housing is now about 2.9X median income. It doesnt say what either actually is. This would be helpful to know.

b) It uses a national scene. All Real Estate is local, and I dont think anyone looking to buy their first house in San Diego really cares that they could buy 5X the house in Detroit. Saying national numbers look similar to national numbers in past times that were better; so therefore it must be a good time to buy is just dumb.

[DWCAP]

My problems with this article.

a) It has no numbers I can see. It just states that median housing is now about 2.9X median income. It doesnt say what either actually is. This would be helpful to know.

b) It uses a national scene. All Real Estate is local, and I dont think anyone looking to buy their first house in San Diego really cares that they could buy 5X the house in Detroit. Saying national numbers look similar to national numbers in past times that were better; so therefore it must be a good time to buy is just dumb.

[macromaniac]

Barnaby, you are correct! Wages did not inflate but everything else, non electronics, did….so you have to go to 1999 / 2000 pricing to even be close to any bottom and we should overshoot….

[macromaniac]

Barnaby, you are correct! Wages did not inflate but everything else, non electronics, did….so you have to go to 1999 / 2000 pricing to even be close to any bottom and we should overshoot….

[macromaniac]

Barnaby, you are correct! Wages did not inflate but everything else, non electronics, did….so you have to go to 1999 / 2000 pricing to even be close to any bottom and we should overshoot….

[macromaniac]

Barnaby, you are correct! Wages did not inflate but everything else, non electronics, did….so you have to go to 1999 / 2000 pricing to even be close to any bottom and we should overshoot….

[Author]

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