GSE limits slated to drop (PLUS bonus question for mortgage experts)

[briansd1]

I won’t get into an argument as to which areas are “immune” but the data does show that the market is getting softer. And the lower GSE limits will be a negative in high prices markets such as Southern California.

The pricier segments of the resale market also remain weak, with the “move-up” buyer all but disappearing since the crash. The decline in home prices has left many homeowners unable to sell, and the uncertainty in the job market is discouraging others from taking on the risk of a new purchase.

“I don’t see any move-up market happening,” Gerd-Ulf Krueger, principal economist with HousingEcon.com, said. “Typically, the move-up buyer moves because there is equity. Specifically there is some kind of housing market pattern where you start out with the first-time buyer and that triggers moderate home price appreciation, and then after a while confidence comes back.”

“That process has basically gummed up.”

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-spring-home-buying-20110513,0,5609736.story

[sdrealtor]

Again, not immune just far more resilient and certainly nowhere near a 1:1 or even 1:3 relationship thats all. While it could and probably will make a dent, expecting something like this to make a big dent is a folly.

[sdrealtor]

Again, not immune just far more resilient and certainly nowhere near a 1:1 or even 1:3 relationship thats all. While it could and probably will make a dent, expecting something like this to make a big dent is a folly.

[sdrealtor]

Again, not immune just far more resilient and certainly nowhere near a 1:1 or even 1:3 relationship thats all. While it could and probably will make a dent, expecting something like this to make a big dent is a folly.

[sdrealtor]

Again, not immune just far more resilient and certainly nowhere near a 1:1 or even 1:3 relationship thats all. While it could and probably will make a dent, expecting something like this to make a big dent is a folly.

[sdrealtor]

Again, not immune just far more resilient and certainly nowhere near a 1:1 or even 1:3 relationship thats all. While it could and probably will make a dent, expecting something like this to make a big dent is a folly.

[jstoesz]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=jstoesz]I disagree with both of you, bg and sdr. You are focusing on comps too much. It has more to do with the buyers.

A buyer needs to decide what something is worth to them. And this is a full spectrum of fields from location and schools to home construction and lot size. But it all boils down to the simple question, is this house worth $XXXXX more than that one? If the cheaper neighborhoods get cheaper it makes the expensive neighborhoods look more expensive and thus not as worth the premium they command in turn driving down prices.[/quote]

js
You can disagree all you want and you maybe correct for yourself and some buyers. I’ve done this a long time and know what I am talking about regarding buyer behavior, at least as it pertains to my area. Around here, 9 out of 10 buyers want to be specifically here. They arent looking at the neighborhoods far enough away to be significantly cheaper. If they can’t or don’t buy here, they rent here. They have that choice and that is what 9 out of 10 do. For proof look at CA renter. She could go alot of places and buy cheaper but she wants to be here so she just keeps renting until it makes sense for her to buy here if ever. Adding to that is the fact that she is more like you and not even close to being in the 9 out of 10 buyers group. It is what it is…..[/quote]

sdr and bg,

I think we are talking different scales here. People who want to be by the beach will be. people who want to be near down town will be. But they may choose Leucadia over Encinitas because they get more bang. Or they might choose hillcrest over mission hills. These are not big choices, they are the small incremental choices sometimes just a block or two.

I completely agree with your feeling though that people are not going to move to RB just because it is way cheaper, when they really really want to live by the beach. It is all priorities, and maximizing value. If enough people do that all the way up the price continuum it will start to bite into those super prime locations.

escondido->vista->oceanside->carlsbad->leucadia->encinitas-solona->del mar

It just works its way along.

[jstoesz]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=jstoesz]I disagree with both of you, bg and sdr. You are focusing on comps too much. It has more to do with the buyers.

A buyer needs to decide what something is worth to them. And this is a full spectrum of fields from location and schools to home construction and lot size. But it all boils down to the simple question, is this house worth $XXXXX more than that one? If the cheaper neighborhoods get cheaper it makes the expensive neighborhoods look more expensive and thus not as worth the premium they command in turn driving down prices.[/quote]

js
You can disagree all you want and you maybe correct for yourself and some buyers. I’ve done this a long time and know what I am talking about regarding buyer behavior, at least as it pertains to my area. Around here, 9 out of 10 buyers want to be specifically here. They arent looking at the neighborhoods far enough away to be significantly cheaper. If they can’t or don’t buy here, they rent here. They have that choice and that is what 9 out of 10 do. For proof look at CA renter. She could go alot of places and buy cheaper but she wants to be here so she just keeps renting until it makes sense for her to buy here if ever. Adding to that is the fact that she is more like you and not even close to being in the 9 out of 10 buyers group. It is what it is…..[/quote]

sdr and bg,

I think we are talking different scales here. People who want to be by the beach will be. people who want to be near down town will be. But they may choose Leucadia over Encinitas because they get more bang. Or they might choose hillcrest over mission hills. These are not big choices, they are the small incremental choices sometimes just a block or two.

I completely agree with your feeling though that people are not going to move to RB just because it is way cheaper, when they really really want to live by the beach. It is all priorities, and maximizing value. If enough people do that all the way up the price continuum it will start to bite into those super prime locations.

escondido->vista->oceanside->carlsbad->leucadia->encinitas-solona->del mar

It just works its way along.

[jstoesz]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=jstoesz]I disagree with both of you, bg and sdr. You are focusing on comps too much. It has more to do with the buyers.

A buyer needs to decide what something is worth to them. And this is a full spectrum of fields from location and schools to home construction and lot size. But it all boils down to the simple question, is this house worth $XXXXX more than that one? If the cheaper neighborhoods get cheaper it makes the expensive neighborhoods look more expensive and thus not as worth the premium they command in turn driving down prices.[/quote]

js
You can disagree all you want and you maybe correct for yourself and some buyers. I’ve done this a long time and know what I am talking about regarding buyer behavior, at least as it pertains to my area. Around here, 9 out of 10 buyers want to be specifically here. They arent looking at the neighborhoods far enough away to be significantly cheaper. If they can’t or don’t buy here, they rent here. They have that choice and that is what 9 out of 10 do. For proof look at CA renter. She could go alot of places and buy cheaper but she wants to be here so she just keeps renting until it makes sense for her to buy here if ever. Adding to that is the fact that she is more like you and not even close to being in the 9 out of 10 buyers group. It is what it is…..[/quote]

sdr and bg,

I think we are talking different scales here. People who want to be by the beach will be. people who want to be near down town will be. But they may choose Leucadia over Encinitas because they get more bang. Or they might choose hillcrest over mission hills. These are not big choices, they are the small incremental choices sometimes just a block or two.

I completely agree with your feeling though that people are not going to move to RB just because it is way cheaper, when they really really want to live by the beach. It is all priorities, and maximizing value. If enough people do that all the way up the price continuum it will start to bite into those super prime locations.

escondido->vista->oceanside->carlsbad->leucadia->encinitas-solona->del mar

It just works its way along.

[jstoesz]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=jstoesz]I disagree with both of you, bg and sdr. You are focusing on comps too much. It has more to do with the buyers.

A buyer needs to decide what something is worth to them. And this is a full spectrum of fields from location and schools to home construction and lot size. But it all boils down to the simple question, is this house worth $XXXXX more than that one? If the cheaper neighborhoods get cheaper it makes the expensive neighborhoods look more expensive and thus not as worth the premium they command in turn driving down prices.[/quote]

js
You can disagree all you want and you maybe correct for yourself and some buyers. I’ve done this a long time and know what I am talking about regarding buyer behavior, at least as it pertains to my area. Around here, 9 out of 10 buyers want to be specifically here. They arent looking at the neighborhoods far enough away to be significantly cheaper. If they can’t or don’t buy here, they rent here. They have that choice and that is what 9 out of 10 do. For proof look at CA renter. She could go alot of places and buy cheaper but she wants to be here so she just keeps renting until it makes sense for her to buy here if ever. Adding to that is the fact that she is more like you and not even close to being in the 9 out of 10 buyers group. It is what it is…..[/quote]

sdr and bg,

I think we are talking different scales here. People who want to be by the beach will be. people who want to be near down town will be. But they may choose Leucadia over Encinitas because they get more bang. Or they might choose hillcrest over mission hills. These are not big choices, they are the small incremental choices sometimes just a block or two.

I completely agree with your feeling though that people are not going to move to RB just because it is way cheaper, when they really really want to live by the beach. It is all priorities, and maximizing value. If enough people do that all the way up the price continuum it will start to bite into those super prime locations.

escondido->vista->oceanside->carlsbad->leucadia->encinitas-solona->del mar

It just works its way along.

[jstoesz]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=jstoesz]I disagree with both of you, bg and sdr. You are focusing on comps too much. It has more to do with the buyers.

A buyer needs to decide what something is worth to them. And this is a full spectrum of fields from location and schools to home construction and lot size. But it all boils down to the simple question, is this house worth $XXXXX more than that one? If the cheaper neighborhoods get cheaper it makes the expensive neighborhoods look more expensive and thus not as worth the premium they command in turn driving down prices.[/quote]

js
You can disagree all you want and you maybe correct for yourself and some buyers. I’ve done this a long time and know what I am talking about regarding buyer behavior, at least as it pertains to my area. Around here, 9 out of 10 buyers want to be specifically here. They arent looking at the neighborhoods far enough away to be significantly cheaper. If they can’t or don’t buy here, they rent here. They have that choice and that is what 9 out of 10 do. For proof look at CA renter. She could go alot of places and buy cheaper but she wants to be here so she just keeps renting until it makes sense for her to buy here if ever. Adding to that is the fact that she is more like you and not even close to being in the 9 out of 10 buyers group. It is what it is…..[/quote]

sdr and bg,

I think we are talking different scales here. People who want to be by the beach will be. people who want to be near down town will be. But they may choose Leucadia over Encinitas because they get more bang. Or they might choose hillcrest over mission hills. These are not big choices, they are the small incremental choices sometimes just a block or two.

I completely agree with your feeling though that people are not going to move to RB just because it is way cheaper, when they really really want to live by the beach. It is all priorities, and maximizing value. If enough people do that all the way up the price continuum it will start to bite into those super prime locations.

escondido->vista->oceanside->carlsbad->leucadia->encinitas-solona->del mar

It just works its way along.

[jstoesz]

[quote=sdrealtor]Again, not immune just far more resilient and certainly nowhere near a 1:1 or even 1:3 relationship thats all. While it could and probably will make a dent, expecting something like this to make a big dent is a folly.[/quote]

I agree with that completely…what’s 1%, a few hundred a month?

[jstoesz]

[quote=sdrealtor]Again, not immune just far more resilient and certainly nowhere near a 1:1 or even 1:3 relationship thats all. While it could and probably will make a dent, expecting something like this to make a big dent is a folly.[/quote]

I agree with that completely…what’s 1%, a few hundred a month?

[jstoesz]

[quote=sdrealtor]Again, not immune just far more resilient and certainly nowhere near a 1:1 or even 1:3 relationship thats all. While it could and probably will make a dent, expecting something like this to make a big dent is a folly.[/quote]

I agree with that completely…what’s 1%, a few hundred a month?

[jstoesz]

[quote=sdrealtor]Again, not immune just far more resilient and certainly nowhere near a 1:1 or even 1:3 relationship thats all. While it could and probably will make a dent, expecting something like this to make a big dent is a folly.[/quote]

I agree with that completely…what’s 1%, a few hundred a month?

[Author]

Posts