govt intervention

[eavesdropper]

[quote=paramount][quote=sdrealtor]Just to clarify eavesdropper is in DC not San Diego. We have a very active RE market here, far more active than most places. There is huge demand here for well priced homes in any market, good or bad. That just isnt true in most markets across the US and I suspect DC might be one of those.[/quote]

I’d say the RE market in the DC area is “healthy” compared to most areas of the country including California – for one thing the unemployment rate in the DC area is among the lowest in the country.

The DC area is basically immune to recessions – that’s a dirty little beltway secret that’s not such a secret anymore.

Of course that low unemployment rate comes at the expense of the rest of the country since the vast majority of employment in the DC region is in the form of gov’t workers and beltway bandits.

That being said, I doubt there is a ‘huge’ demand even in the DC area. Will these realtor’s ever stop with the BS?[/quote]

Paramount, I don’t know if I’d go so far as to say that the DC area is recession-proof, even though there’s no question that there is one stable source of employment in the government. But there are a lot of residents in this region that aren’t government employees. A huge service industry, along with high-end retail, flourished in this region due to the presence of well-paid govt. employees, and there’s clear evidence that the recession is hurting them. And the beltway bandits are definitely feeling the pain. IMHO, before this recession ends, there will be layoffs of government employees, or, at the very least, a significant revision of their salary levels, PTO, and benefits. In all likelihood, there will be a lot more outsourcing of positions that were traditionally in-house (thus, putting an end to the pain of the beltway bandits, but not the people they hire. Think Walmart).

As for the RE market here, after a very slow 18 months, the market for lower-end “starter” homes ($100K-$300K) is picking up quite a bit, but not much else (in a few “inside the beltway” areas, starter homes are a little higher in price). There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of actual money in this region – essentially, the “robust economy” I kept hearing about from 2002 thru 2006 was being fueled by high-end retail shopping, and purchases of luxury automobiles and second homes in many of our waterfront communities and nearby ski resorts (just like in several other areas of the country). If you have a home to sell that’s above $450K, you have to wait for the move-up buyer to sell their home first. The problem is that many of the move-up buyers can’t sell for a price that is even remotely competitive because they’ve stripped all the equity (and I’m talking 2004 or 2005 equity here) from their properties. So the same thing is happening here, just later than California, which is why I keep my eye on what’s happening in that part of the country.

The good news is that, if you were prudent back in 2002 or 2003, and rented instead of bought, you can now purchase a very nicely-appointed 3000 sf Chesapeake Bay-side house with fabulous views for $700K instead of the $1.5 mil it would have cost in 2006. And the prices are still going down, down, down.

[CA renter]

[quote=eavesdropper]

In general, a lot of the residents here remain in serious denial about what’s happening in housing. It took me 3 years to convince my husband to move, but at least he saw the light before it got too far into the slide, and we managed to collect most of the “value” that had accrued in the aughts. But we made sure the house was model-perfect, and set a selling strategy with which we stuck, that included significant price reductions when indicated.[/quote]

Nicely done on the sale, eavesdropper. 🙂

Thanks for filling us in on what’s going on in your market. From everything I’m hearing and reading, it sounds like your area is doing exceptionally well. Of course, like here, there are areas that have held up better than others.

The market’s still crazy here, if that’s any kind of forward-indicator for you. We’ll see if this changes over the next year or two.

[CA renter]

[quote=eavesdropper]

In general, a lot of the residents here remain in serious denial about what’s happening in housing. It took me 3 years to convince my husband to move, but at least he saw the light before it got too far into the slide, and we managed to collect most of the “value” that had accrued in the aughts. But we made sure the house was model-perfect, and set a selling strategy with which we stuck, that included significant price reductions when indicated.[/quote]

Nicely done on the sale, eavesdropper. 🙂

Thanks for filling us in on what’s going on in your market. From everything I’m hearing and reading, it sounds like your area is doing exceptionally well. Of course, like here, there are areas that have held up better than others.

The market’s still crazy here, if that’s any kind of forward-indicator for you. We’ll see if this changes over the next year or two.

[CA renter]

[quote=eavesdropper]

In general, a lot of the residents here remain in serious denial about what’s happening in housing. It took me 3 years to convince my husband to move, but at least he saw the light before it got too far into the slide, and we managed to collect most of the “value” that had accrued in the aughts. But we made sure the house was model-perfect, and set a selling strategy with which we stuck, that included significant price reductions when indicated.[/quote]

Nicely done on the sale, eavesdropper. 🙂

Thanks for filling us in on what’s going on in your market. From everything I’m hearing and reading, it sounds like your area is doing exceptionally well. Of course, like here, there are areas that have held up better than others.

The market’s still crazy here, if that’s any kind of forward-indicator for you. We’ll see if this changes over the next year or two.

[CA renter]

[quote=eavesdropper]

In general, a lot of the residents here remain in serious denial about what’s happening in housing. It took me 3 years to convince my husband to move, but at least he saw the light before it got too far into the slide, and we managed to collect most of the “value” that had accrued in the aughts. But we made sure the house was model-perfect, and set a selling strategy with which we stuck, that included significant price reductions when indicated.[/quote]

Nicely done on the sale, eavesdropper. 🙂

Thanks for filling us in on what’s going on in your market. From everything I’m hearing and reading, it sounds like your area is doing exceptionally well. Of course, like here, there are areas that have held up better than others.

The market’s still crazy here, if that’s any kind of forward-indicator for you. We’ll see if this changes over the next year or two.

[CA renter]

[quote=eavesdropper]

In general, a lot of the residents here remain in serious denial about what’s happening in housing. It took me 3 years to convince my husband to move, but at least he saw the light before it got too far into the slide, and we managed to collect most of the “value” that had accrued in the aughts. But we made sure the house was model-perfect, and set a selling strategy with which we stuck, that included significant price reductions when indicated.[/quote]

Nicely done on the sale, eavesdropper. 🙂

Thanks for filling us in on what’s going on in your market. From everything I’m hearing and reading, it sounds like your area is doing exceptionally well. Of course, like here, there are areas that have held up better than others.

The market’s still crazy here, if that’s any kind of forward-indicator for you. We’ll see if this changes over the next year or two.

[SK in CV]

[quote=scaredycat]but how does giving money to underwater homeowners help?[/quote]

You know, i really havent seen any of this. When homes are underwater and lenders make modifications, that isn’t giving money to underwater homeowners, they’re still underwater. And for the most part, the underwater part isn’t the homeowners loss, it’s the lender’s loss. Modifications, and government aid in facilitating those modifications are rarely, if ever, the equivilent of “giving money to underwater homeowners”. It’s either lender’s acknowledging their own losses that already existed, or the government stepping in to help underwater lenders.

Certainly there are lifestyle advantages to homeowners, but that’s significantly different than true economic benefit. If a homeowner is $100,000 underwater and their loan is permanently modified to zero equity, they still got nothing.

Of the recent government programs, there hasn’t been a single one that hasn’t been 100 times more advantageous to lenders than it has been to borrowers.

[SK in CV]

[quote=scaredycat]but how does giving money to underwater homeowners help?[/quote]

You know, i really havent seen any of this. When homes are underwater and lenders make modifications, that isn’t giving money to underwater homeowners, they’re still underwater. And for the most part, the underwater part isn’t the homeowners loss, it’s the lender’s loss. Modifications, and government aid in facilitating those modifications are rarely, if ever, the equivilent of “giving money to underwater homeowners”. It’s either lender’s acknowledging their own losses that already existed, or the government stepping in to help underwater lenders.

Certainly there are lifestyle advantages to homeowners, but that’s significantly different than true economic benefit. If a homeowner is $100,000 underwater and their loan is permanently modified to zero equity, they still got nothing.

Of the recent government programs, there hasn’t been a single one that hasn’t been 100 times more advantageous to lenders than it has been to borrowers.

[SK in CV]

[quote=scaredycat]but how does giving money to underwater homeowners help?[/quote]

You know, i really havent seen any of this. When homes are underwater and lenders make modifications, that isn’t giving money to underwater homeowners, they’re still underwater. And for the most part, the underwater part isn’t the homeowners loss, it’s the lender’s loss. Modifications, and government aid in facilitating those modifications are rarely, if ever, the equivilent of “giving money to underwater homeowners”. It’s either lender’s acknowledging their own losses that already existed, or the government stepping in to help underwater lenders.

Certainly there are lifestyle advantages to homeowners, but that’s significantly different than true economic benefit. If a homeowner is $100,000 underwater and their loan is permanently modified to zero equity, they still got nothing.

Of the recent government programs, there hasn’t been a single one that hasn’t been 100 times more advantageous to lenders than it has been to borrowers.

[SK in CV]

[quote=scaredycat]but how does giving money to underwater homeowners help?[/quote]

You know, i really havent seen any of this. When homes are underwater and lenders make modifications, that isn’t giving money to underwater homeowners, they’re still underwater. And for the most part, the underwater part isn’t the homeowners loss, it’s the lender’s loss. Modifications, and government aid in facilitating those modifications are rarely, if ever, the equivilent of “giving money to underwater homeowners”. It’s either lender’s acknowledging their own losses that already existed, or the government stepping in to help underwater lenders.

Certainly there are lifestyle advantages to homeowners, but that’s significantly different than true economic benefit. If a homeowner is $100,000 underwater and their loan is permanently modified to zero equity, they still got nothing.

Of the recent government programs, there hasn’t been a single one that hasn’t been 100 times more advantageous to lenders than it has been to borrowers.

[SK in CV]

[quote=scaredycat]but how does giving money to underwater homeowners help?[/quote]

You know, i really havent seen any of this. When homes are underwater and lenders make modifications, that isn’t giving money to underwater homeowners, they’re still underwater. And for the most part, the underwater part isn’t the homeowners loss, it’s the lender’s loss. Modifications, and government aid in facilitating those modifications are rarely, if ever, the equivilent of “giving money to underwater homeowners”. It’s either lender’s acknowledging their own losses that already existed, or the government stepping in to help underwater lenders.

Certainly there are lifestyle advantages to homeowners, but that’s significantly different than true economic benefit. If a homeowner is $100,000 underwater and their loan is permanently modified to zero equity, they still got nothing.

Of the recent government programs, there hasn’t been a single one that hasn’t been 100 times more advantageous to lenders than it has been to borrowers.

[eavesdropper]

[quote=CA renter][quote=eavesdropper]
Nicely done on the sale, eavesdropper. 🙂

Thanks for filling us in on what’s going on in your market. From everything I’m hearing and reading, it sounds like your area is doing exceptionally well. Of course, like here, there are areas that have held up better than others.

The market’s still crazy here, if that’s any kind of forward-indicator for you. We’ll see if this changes over the next year or two.[/quote]

Thanks, CA renter. We were extremely fortunate. Within a less than a year, sale prices of the houses in our development had dropped by $100K (but, damn, I miss the closet space!)

Sale prices in our new development have actually gone up a bit. Not enough to be statistically significant, but, oh, so much better than dropping. But I’m convinced we’ve got a way to go before things bottom out here.

Northern VA seems to be having a much tougher time of it than we on the MD side of DC. But their growth during the aughts was much less controlled than ours, mostly in the exurbs. Individuals buying new construction for $250,000 were seeing their appraisals go up to $325K before building was complete, and “values” were at $500K+ before the wake-up call. I think that they were double-whammied by the high commuting costs in 2008 in addition to changing market conditions.

But even though I believe that our market is far from bottoming out, we do have a certain stability in the employment sector lent by the presence of the Federal government. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I don’t think that makes us recession-proof, but it’s a helluva lot more than most areas have these days.

But I am curious about one thing that’s been discussed in this thread: Denial. Is it as strong in your neck of the woods as it is here (documented for posterity on “Real Estate Intervention”)? Time and time again, I meet people who readily acknowledge the severity of the real estate crisis, but, somehow, feel that their home is different, and that they’ll have no problem charging, and getting, significantly more money for it. Is denial still as prevalent in SoCal as it is here, or are most sellers finally getting the message (before the “message” comes from their mortgage lender)?

[eavesdropper]

[quote=CA renter][quote=eavesdropper]
Nicely done on the sale, eavesdropper. 🙂

Thanks for filling us in on what’s going on in your market. From everything I’m hearing and reading, it sounds like your area is doing exceptionally well. Of course, like here, there are areas that have held up better than others.

The market’s still crazy here, if that’s any kind of forward-indicator for you. We’ll see if this changes over the next year or two.[/quote]

Thanks, CA renter. We were extremely fortunate. Within a less than a year, sale prices of the houses in our development had dropped by $100K (but, damn, I miss the closet space!)

Sale prices in our new development have actually gone up a bit. Not enough to be statistically significant, but, oh, so much better than dropping. But I’m convinced we’ve got a way to go before things bottom out here.

Northern VA seems to be having a much tougher time of it than we on the MD side of DC. But their growth during the aughts was much less controlled than ours, mostly in the exurbs. Individuals buying new construction for $250,000 were seeing their appraisals go up to $325K before building was complete, and “values” were at $500K+ before the wake-up call. I think that they were double-whammied by the high commuting costs in 2008 in addition to changing market conditions.

But even though I believe that our market is far from bottoming out, we do have a certain stability in the employment sector lent by the presence of the Federal government. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I don’t think that makes us recession-proof, but it’s a helluva lot more than most areas have these days.

But I am curious about one thing that’s been discussed in this thread: Denial. Is it as strong in your neck of the woods as it is here (documented for posterity on “Real Estate Intervention”)? Time and time again, I meet people who readily acknowledge the severity of the real estate crisis, but, somehow, feel that their home is different, and that they’ll have no problem charging, and getting, significantly more money for it. Is denial still as prevalent in SoCal as it is here, or are most sellers finally getting the message (before the “message” comes from their mortgage lender)?

[eavesdropper]

[quote=CA renter][quote=eavesdropper]
Nicely done on the sale, eavesdropper. 🙂

Thanks for filling us in on what’s going on in your market. From everything I’m hearing and reading, it sounds like your area is doing exceptionally well. Of course, like here, there are areas that have held up better than others.

The market’s still crazy here, if that’s any kind of forward-indicator for you. We’ll see if this changes over the next year or two.[/quote]

Thanks, CA renter. We were extremely fortunate. Within a less than a year, sale prices of the houses in our development had dropped by $100K (but, damn, I miss the closet space!)

Sale prices in our new development have actually gone up a bit. Not enough to be statistically significant, but, oh, so much better than dropping. But I’m convinced we’ve got a way to go before things bottom out here.

Northern VA seems to be having a much tougher time of it than we on the MD side of DC. But their growth during the aughts was much less controlled than ours, mostly in the exurbs. Individuals buying new construction for $250,000 were seeing their appraisals go up to $325K before building was complete, and “values” were at $500K+ before the wake-up call. I think that they were double-whammied by the high commuting costs in 2008 in addition to changing market conditions.

But even though I believe that our market is far from bottoming out, we do have a certain stability in the employment sector lent by the presence of the Federal government. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I don’t think that makes us recession-proof, but it’s a helluva lot more than most areas have these days.

But I am curious about one thing that’s been discussed in this thread: Denial. Is it as strong in your neck of the woods as it is here (documented for posterity on “Real Estate Intervention”)? Time and time again, I meet people who readily acknowledge the severity of the real estate crisis, but, somehow, feel that their home is different, and that they’ll have no problem charging, and getting, significantly more money for it. Is denial still as prevalent in SoCal as it is here, or are most sellers finally getting the message (before the “message” comes from their mortgage lender)?

[eavesdropper]

[quote=CA renter][quote=eavesdropper]
Nicely done on the sale, eavesdropper. 🙂

Thanks for filling us in on what’s going on in your market. From everything I’m hearing and reading, it sounds like your area is doing exceptionally well. Of course, like here, there are areas that have held up better than others.

The market’s still crazy here, if that’s any kind of forward-indicator for you. We’ll see if this changes over the next year or two.[/quote]

Thanks, CA renter. We were extremely fortunate. Within a less than a year, sale prices of the houses in our development had dropped by $100K (but, damn, I miss the closet space!)

Sale prices in our new development have actually gone up a bit. Not enough to be statistically significant, but, oh, so much better than dropping. But I’m convinced we’ve got a way to go before things bottom out here.

Northern VA seems to be having a much tougher time of it than we on the MD side of DC. But their growth during the aughts was much less controlled than ours, mostly in the exurbs. Individuals buying new construction for $250,000 were seeing their appraisals go up to $325K before building was complete, and “values” were at $500K+ before the wake-up call. I think that they were double-whammied by the high commuting costs in 2008 in addition to changing market conditions.

But even though I believe that our market is far from bottoming out, we do have a certain stability in the employment sector lent by the presence of the Federal government. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I don’t think that makes us recession-proof, but it’s a helluva lot more than most areas have these days.

But I am curious about one thing that’s been discussed in this thread: Denial. Is it as strong in your neck of the woods as it is here (documented for posterity on “Real Estate Intervention”)? Time and time again, I meet people who readily acknowledge the severity of the real estate crisis, but, somehow, feel that their home is different, and that they’ll have no problem charging, and getting, significantly more money for it. Is denial still as prevalent in SoCal as it is here, or are most sellers finally getting the message (before the “message” comes from their mortgage lender)?

[Author]

Posts