Gold Redux: What do you folks thing about this?

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=peterb]Gold’s been used as money for a long time throughout history, around the world. When fiats fail, they tend to come back to gold. There’s a lot documentation on this. Sure, there are times when there’s some other asset that’s out performing gold. But when the economic climate starts getting sketchy, it’s relative strength is increased. Everything has some kind of purchasing power. So measuring items against a similar group may be a more useful method of determining value. Gold/CRB is one way to calculate it’s real value.
My point about venetian bonds and silk is that they were at sometime in the past an outperforming asset to gold. But today we speak of gold. And we have for many centuries, off and on. Eventhough all kinds of things have come and gone from percieved value.[/quote]

Peter: I don’t have any issues with gold. What I have an issue with is an asset class being bid up bullishly without any supporting facts (stop me if you’ve heard this one) by supposed “experts” who are using fear to push their product.

Your use of “perceived value” is the key. Gold, throughout history, has simply been one of many things that served as a placeholder for value. Sometimes it was greater than other things, sometimes less.

In terms of investment value, ask anyone that fell into the gold trap that ended in either 1980 or 1982 (I forget which). I was a teenager at the time and my uncle was in investment banking with Merrill Lynch. Gold had emerged as a market beater and people were piling in enthusiastically. Gold went nearly to $900 and then back down into the $200s, where it remained for years upon years. He had been telling clients to be careful, but his advice was ignored.

You hear people on this board and in other investment blogs touting gold and offering “expert” advice that gold will break $2,000 an ounce. Well, I’m wary of experts, especially those who sell fear as a commodity. We’ve all seen how that works out.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=flu][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
I’m not saying you feel that there will be a wholesale collapse, either, but many of the folks out there shilling gold are. And they’re selling fear along with the coins. That’s why I keep saying that if you read history and find the proper analogies, they’ll lead you to an understanding that many other things possess value as well and will also survive the downturn.[/quote]

In your view at the current time right now, what do you think would hold value (aside from precious metals). I don’t think we’ll have a total collapse of the dollar right away, but just curious. (I know you’ll laugh by my relative has a bunch of wine that’s held in an escrow storage, and they have been selling them at wine auctions for pretty hefty premiums even in present day…Unfortunately, I’ve never acquired a wine snobbery so it doesn’t ring a bell for me..) I won’t hold you accountable for your wisdom opinion. [/quote]

FLU: I wish I had an answer, I honestly do. I’m completely out of the market presently, but that’s because every spare dime is going into my business to finance engineering and design costs. Business is booming (no pun intended; I’m in blast engineering), but that’s more a function of the times than anything else.

I’ve got friends in banking, finance and accounting, and all of them are advocating different approaches to investing.

When I invested seriously before (personally and institutionally), I was a devoted advocate of Ben Graham and value investing. I will tell you that I stayed away from stocks religiously and played for years in the bond market. I wasn’t looking to be a world beater, but to maintain a consistent return net of inflation and any costs of funds (institutionally). In this regard, I considered myself successful, generally returning between 4 – 6% total net return.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=flu][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
I’m not saying you feel that there will be a wholesale collapse, either, but many of the folks out there shilling gold are. And they’re selling fear along with the coins. That’s why I keep saying that if you read history and find the proper analogies, they’ll lead you to an understanding that many other things possess value as well and will also survive the downturn.[/quote]

In your view at the current time right now, what do you think would hold value (aside from precious metals). I don’t think we’ll have a total collapse of the dollar right away, but just curious. (I know you’ll laugh by my relative has a bunch of wine that’s held in an escrow storage, and they have been selling them at wine auctions for pretty hefty premiums even in present day…Unfortunately, I’ve never acquired a wine snobbery so it doesn’t ring a bell for me..) I won’t hold you accountable for your wisdom opinion. [/quote]

FLU: I wish I had an answer, I honestly do. I’m completely out of the market presently, but that’s because every spare dime is going into my business to finance engineering and design costs. Business is booming (no pun intended; I’m in blast engineering), but that’s more a function of the times than anything else.

I’ve got friends in banking, finance and accounting, and all of them are advocating different approaches to investing.

When I invested seriously before (personally and institutionally), I was a devoted advocate of Ben Graham and value investing. I will tell you that I stayed away from stocks religiously and played for years in the bond market. I wasn’t looking to be a world beater, but to maintain a consistent return net of inflation and any costs of funds (institutionally). In this regard, I considered myself successful, generally returning between 4 – 6% total net return.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=flu][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
I’m not saying you feel that there will be a wholesale collapse, either, but many of the folks out there shilling gold are. And they’re selling fear along with the coins. That’s why I keep saying that if you read history and find the proper analogies, they’ll lead you to an understanding that many other things possess value as well and will also survive the downturn.[/quote]

In your view at the current time right now, what do you think would hold value (aside from precious metals). I don’t think we’ll have a total collapse of the dollar right away, but just curious. (I know you’ll laugh by my relative has a bunch of wine that’s held in an escrow storage, and they have been selling them at wine auctions for pretty hefty premiums even in present day…Unfortunately, I’ve never acquired a wine snobbery so it doesn’t ring a bell for me..) I won’t hold you accountable for your wisdom opinion. [/quote]

FLU: I wish I had an answer, I honestly do. I’m completely out of the market presently, but that’s because every spare dime is going into my business to finance engineering and design costs. Business is booming (no pun intended; I’m in blast engineering), but that’s more a function of the times than anything else.

I’ve got friends in banking, finance and accounting, and all of them are advocating different approaches to investing.

When I invested seriously before (personally and institutionally), I was a devoted advocate of Ben Graham and value investing. I will tell you that I stayed away from stocks religiously and played for years in the bond market. I wasn’t looking to be a world beater, but to maintain a consistent return net of inflation and any costs of funds (institutionally). In this regard, I considered myself successful, generally returning between 4 – 6% total net return.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=flu][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
I’m not saying you feel that there will be a wholesale collapse, either, but many of the folks out there shilling gold are. And they’re selling fear along with the coins. That’s why I keep saying that if you read history and find the proper analogies, they’ll lead you to an understanding that many other things possess value as well and will also survive the downturn.[/quote]

In your view at the current time right now, what do you think would hold value (aside from precious metals). I don’t think we’ll have a total collapse of the dollar right away, but just curious. (I know you’ll laugh by my relative has a bunch of wine that’s held in an escrow storage, and they have been selling them at wine auctions for pretty hefty premiums even in present day…Unfortunately, I’ve never acquired a wine snobbery so it doesn’t ring a bell for me..) I won’t hold you accountable for your wisdom opinion. [/quote]

FLU: I wish I had an answer, I honestly do. I’m completely out of the market presently, but that’s because every spare dime is going into my business to finance engineering and design costs. Business is booming (no pun intended; I’m in blast engineering), but that’s more a function of the times than anything else.

I’ve got friends in banking, finance and accounting, and all of them are advocating different approaches to investing.

When I invested seriously before (personally and institutionally), I was a devoted advocate of Ben Graham and value investing. I will tell you that I stayed away from stocks religiously and played for years in the bond market. I wasn’t looking to be a world beater, but to maintain a consistent return net of inflation and any costs of funds (institutionally). In this regard, I considered myself successful, generally returning between 4 – 6% total net return.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=flu][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
I’m not saying you feel that there will be a wholesale collapse, either, but many of the folks out there shilling gold are. And they’re selling fear along with the coins. That’s why I keep saying that if you read history and find the proper analogies, they’ll lead you to an understanding that many other things possess value as well and will also survive the downturn.[/quote]

In your view at the current time right now, what do you think would hold value (aside from precious metals). I don’t think we’ll have a total collapse of the dollar right away, but just curious. (I know you’ll laugh by my relative has a bunch of wine that’s held in an escrow storage, and they have been selling them at wine auctions for pretty hefty premiums even in present day…Unfortunately, I’ve never acquired a wine snobbery so it doesn’t ring a bell for me..) I won’t hold you accountable for your wisdom opinion. [/quote]

FLU: I wish I had an answer, I honestly do. I’m completely out of the market presently, but that’s because every spare dime is going into my business to finance engineering and design costs. Business is booming (no pun intended; I’m in blast engineering), but that’s more a function of the times than anything else.

I’ve got friends in banking, finance and accounting, and all of them are advocating different approaches to investing.

When I invested seriously before (personally and institutionally), I was a devoted advocate of Ben Graham and value investing. I will tell you that I stayed away from stocks religiously and played for years in the bond market. I wasn’t looking to be a world beater, but to maintain a consistent return net of inflation and any costs of funds (institutionally). In this regard, I considered myself successful, generally returning between 4 – 6% total net return.

[Arraya]

Allan-Gold is not bubbling yet, IMO. It decoupled from commodities in the fall and is now PROVEN as a safe haven along with US treasuries. And yes, it’s perception, but a universal one now, that you can deduce from recent behavior. Like a global economic/fiat stress meter. The meme is out there. The treasury safety perception won’t last because our economy is falling to fast with no end in sight. People need something to grab onto and there is no other deal in town today.

Don’t fight the herd, follow it and leave first. Lots more stress coming up and the herd will be flocking to safe havens. Nothing has fundamentals. We are in the twilight zone economically. Personally, I think you can throw historical contexts out the window at this point.

[Arraya]

Allan-Gold is not bubbling yet, IMO. It decoupled from commodities in the fall and is now PROVEN as a safe haven along with US treasuries. And yes, it’s perception, but a universal one now, that you can deduce from recent behavior. Like a global economic/fiat stress meter. The meme is out there. The treasury safety perception won’t last because our economy is falling to fast with no end in sight. People need something to grab onto and there is no other deal in town today.

Don’t fight the herd, follow it and leave first. Lots more stress coming up and the herd will be flocking to safe havens. Nothing has fundamentals. We are in the twilight zone economically. Personally, I think you can throw historical contexts out the window at this point.

[Arraya]

Allan-Gold is not bubbling yet, IMO. It decoupled from commodities in the fall and is now PROVEN as a safe haven along with US treasuries. And yes, it’s perception, but a universal one now, that you can deduce from recent behavior. Like a global economic/fiat stress meter. The meme is out there. The treasury safety perception won’t last because our economy is falling to fast with no end in sight. People need something to grab onto and there is no other deal in town today.

Don’t fight the herd, follow it and leave first. Lots more stress coming up and the herd will be flocking to safe havens. Nothing has fundamentals. We are in the twilight zone economically. Personally, I think you can throw historical contexts out the window at this point.

[Arraya]

Allan-Gold is not bubbling yet, IMO. It decoupled from commodities in the fall and is now PROVEN as a safe haven along with US treasuries. And yes, it’s perception, but a universal one now, that you can deduce from recent behavior. Like a global economic/fiat stress meter. The meme is out there. The treasury safety perception won’t last because our economy is falling to fast with no end in sight. People need something to grab onto and there is no other deal in town today.

Don’t fight the herd, follow it and leave first. Lots more stress coming up and the herd will be flocking to safe havens. Nothing has fundamentals. We are in the twilight zone economically. Personally, I think you can throw historical contexts out the window at this point.

[Arraya]

Allan-Gold is not bubbling yet, IMO. It decoupled from commodities in the fall and is now PROVEN as a safe haven along with US treasuries. And yes, it’s perception, but a universal one now, that you can deduce from recent behavior. Like a global economic/fiat stress meter. The meme is out there. The treasury safety perception won’t last because our economy is falling to fast with no end in sight. People need something to grab onto and there is no other deal in town today.

Don’t fight the herd, follow it and leave first. Lots more stress coming up and the herd will be flocking to safe havens. Nothing has fundamentals. We are in the twilight zone economically. Personally, I think you can throw historical contexts out the window at this point.

[Coronita]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]

FLU: I wish I had an answer, I honestly do. I’m completely out of the market presently, but that’s because every spare dime is going into my business to finance engineering and design costs. Business is booming (no pun intended; I’m in blast engineering), but that’s more a function of the times than anything else.

I’ve got friends in banking, finance and accounting, and all of them are advocating different approaches to investing.

When I invested seriously before (personally and institutionally), I was a devoted advocate of Ben Graham and value investing. I will tell you that I stayed away from stocks religiously and played for years in the bond market. I wasn’t looking to be a world beater, but to maintain a consistent return net of inflation and any costs of funds (institutionally). In this regard, I considered myself successful, generally returning between 4 – 6% total net return.[/quote]

Actually that helps. See in my more youthful years, I took the advice of colleagues and friends to try to “speculate” in higher risk items. The rationale was that if I wipe out when I’m young, I still have a ways to go to make up the difference. It sometimes worked, sometimes didn’t. Now, I’m beginning to realize that I’m not as young as I use to be…Hence, I’m starting to think even more cautiously now. There were times when I use to think 4-6% was a joke…I’m not laughing anymore.

[Coronita]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]

FLU: I wish I had an answer, I honestly do. I’m completely out of the market presently, but that’s because every spare dime is going into my business to finance engineering and design costs. Business is booming (no pun intended; I’m in blast engineering), but that’s more a function of the times than anything else.

I’ve got friends in banking, finance and accounting, and all of them are advocating different approaches to investing.

When I invested seriously before (personally and institutionally), I was a devoted advocate of Ben Graham and value investing. I will tell you that I stayed away from stocks religiously and played for years in the bond market. I wasn’t looking to be a world beater, but to maintain a consistent return net of inflation and any costs of funds (institutionally). In this regard, I considered myself successful, generally returning between 4 – 6% total net return.[/quote]

Actually that helps. See in my more youthful years, I took the advice of colleagues and friends to try to “speculate” in higher risk items. The rationale was that if I wipe out when I’m young, I still have a ways to go to make up the difference. It sometimes worked, sometimes didn’t. Now, I’m beginning to realize that I’m not as young as I use to be…Hence, I’m starting to think even more cautiously now. There were times when I use to think 4-6% was a joke…I’m not laughing anymore.

[Coronita]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]

FLU: I wish I had an answer, I honestly do. I’m completely out of the market presently, but that’s because every spare dime is going into my business to finance engineering and design costs. Business is booming (no pun intended; I’m in blast engineering), but that’s more a function of the times than anything else.

I’ve got friends in banking, finance and accounting, and all of them are advocating different approaches to investing.

When I invested seriously before (personally and institutionally), I was a devoted advocate of Ben Graham and value investing. I will tell you that I stayed away from stocks religiously and played for years in the bond market. I wasn’t looking to be a world beater, but to maintain a consistent return net of inflation and any costs of funds (institutionally). In this regard, I considered myself successful, generally returning between 4 – 6% total net return.[/quote]

Actually that helps. See in my more youthful years, I took the advice of colleagues and friends to try to “speculate” in higher risk items. The rationale was that if I wipe out when I’m young, I still have a ways to go to make up the difference. It sometimes worked, sometimes didn’t. Now, I’m beginning to realize that I’m not as young as I use to be…Hence, I’m starting to think even more cautiously now. There were times when I use to think 4-6% was a joke…I’m not laughing anymore.

[Coronita]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]

FLU: I wish I had an answer, I honestly do. I’m completely out of the market presently, but that’s because every spare dime is going into my business to finance engineering and design costs. Business is booming (no pun intended; I’m in blast engineering), but that’s more a function of the times than anything else.

I’ve got friends in banking, finance and accounting, and all of them are advocating different approaches to investing.

When I invested seriously before (personally and institutionally), I was a devoted advocate of Ben Graham and value investing. I will tell you that I stayed away from stocks religiously and played for years in the bond market. I wasn’t looking to be a world beater, but to maintain a consistent return net of inflation and any costs of funds (institutionally). In this regard, I considered myself successful, generally returning between 4 – 6% total net return.[/quote]

Actually that helps. See in my more youthful years, I took the advice of colleagues and friends to try to “speculate” in higher risk items. The rationale was that if I wipe out when I’m young, I still have a ways to go to make up the difference. It sometimes worked, sometimes didn’t. Now, I’m beginning to realize that I’m not as young as I use to be…Hence, I’m starting to think even more cautiously now. There were times when I use to think 4-6% was a joke…I’m not laughing anymore.

[Author]

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