Going long on battered stocks

[nostradamus]

In the words of Warren Buffet, “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

After a long hibernation the bear is awake up and by all indications, he’s big and he’s hungry. The low-hanging fruits are the first to be devoured: in this case, housing and lenders. Inevitably there is spillover (Who will buy a large-screen TV if there’s no house to put it in? Who will buy a new SUV when they can’t get a lease and can’t afford gas?) so companies from TVs to autos, art to furniture, and many others are not immune.

While we have seen market-wide ups and downs lately, we have not seen anything truly catastrophic. Bears say the worst is yet to come, bulls say it can’t get any worse than it already has.

I have already dumped most of my long stocks and am in a holding pattern for D-day. If the DOW were to fall off a cliff tomorrow, what stocks would you scoop up?

“The best time to buy is when there is blood in the streets.” -Baron Rothschild

[DaCounselor]

If the DOW falls off a cliff I will add substantially to my DIA shares. I have recently added (last week) to positions in IWM and MDY at low points and plan to add to SPY and QQQQ depending on the severity of dips. As you can tell I am primarily an index guy.

With the exception of some biotech and tech stocks I am mostly a value guy when it comes to individual stocks, so I’m watching the financials, retail and home-related industry companies. There appear to be some unbelievable discounts right now, but it’s only a discount if the company survives and the stock goes up. Discounts are only confirmed in the rear-view mirror. I also track two indices – ITB and XHB, which are both beaten down bad. I’m not sure the downward trend is over yet, though.

[DaCounselor]

If the DOW falls off a cliff I will add substantially to my DIA shares. I have recently added (last week) to positions in IWM and MDY at low points and plan to add to SPY and QQQQ depending on the severity of dips. As you can tell I am primarily an index guy.

With the exception of some biotech and tech stocks I am mostly a value guy when it comes to individual stocks, so I’m watching the financials, retail and home-related industry companies. There appear to be some unbelievable discounts right now, but it’s only a discount if the company survives and the stock goes up. Discounts are only confirmed in the rear-view mirror. I also track two indices – ITB and XHB, which are both beaten down bad. I’m not sure the downward trend is over yet, though.

[DaCounselor]

If the DOW falls off a cliff I will add substantially to my DIA shares. I have recently added (last week) to positions in IWM and MDY at low points and plan to add to SPY and QQQQ depending on the severity of dips. As you can tell I am primarily an index guy.

With the exception of some biotech and tech stocks I am mostly a value guy when it comes to individual stocks, so I’m watching the financials, retail and home-related industry companies. There appear to be some unbelievable discounts right now, but it’s only a discount if the company survives and the stock goes up. Discounts are only confirmed in the rear-view mirror. I also track two indices – ITB and XHB, which are both beaten down bad. I’m not sure the downward trend is over yet, though.

[DaCounselor]

If the DOW falls off a cliff I will add substantially to my DIA shares. I have recently added (last week) to positions in IWM and MDY at low points and plan to add to SPY and QQQQ depending on the severity of dips. As you can tell I am primarily an index guy.

With the exception of some biotech and tech stocks I am mostly a value guy when it comes to individual stocks, so I’m watching the financials, retail and home-related industry companies. There appear to be some unbelievable discounts right now, but it’s only a discount if the company survives and the stock goes up. Discounts are only confirmed in the rear-view mirror. I also track two indices – ITB and XHB, which are both beaten down bad. I’m not sure the downward trend is over yet, though.

[DaCounselor]

If the DOW falls off a cliff I will add substantially to my DIA shares. I have recently added (last week) to positions in IWM and MDY at low points and plan to add to SPY and QQQQ depending on the severity of dips. As you can tell I am primarily an index guy.

With the exception of some biotech and tech stocks I am mostly a value guy when it comes to individual stocks, so I’m watching the financials, retail and home-related industry companies. There appear to be some unbelievable discounts right now, but it’s only a discount if the company survives and the stock goes up. Discounts are only confirmed in the rear-view mirror. I also track two indices – ITB and XHB, which are both beaten down bad. I’m not sure the downward trend is over yet, though.

[stockstradr]

First, I consider Warren Buffet to be a personal hero and an inspiration to all. I have many of his books and have even read some of them.

I should note that I’m NOT a professional stock trader (as my nickname would indicate) although I do play one on here.

>> I have already dumped most of my long stocks and am in a holding pattern for D-day.

My response: If you’re expecting “D-Day” as I am, why not short the market?

I certainly haven’t held any LONG stock positions for over a year. If you are implying that you liquidated your long positions after the markets recently tanked 10% you won’t get any awards from us on your stock market savvy.

You write you’ve dumped most of your long positions and now in a holding pattern. Well, recently I’ve dumped most of my SHORT positions (after I made a good deal of money as the market recently tanked 10%), and I’m in a holding pattern while the markets continue this TEMPORARY minor recovery apparently driven by expected end of month FOMC 1/2 point rate drop. When this minor recovery seems to have run out of steam after estimated 5% (possible) or 10% (doubtful) upswing, I will take those short positions again in a Big Way. We are now entering a very nasty recession. Read Barron’s from this last weekend; see the comments in the roundtable discussion interviews. Those people are a order-of-magnitude smarter than me on the financial markets, and many are expecting the worst.

I continue to hold gold, and am increasing my exposure to gold. Some people talk about $1,000/ounce gold. Since the idiotic FOMC appears to have chosen the “print money” approach to this economic crisis (and to the larger problem of America’s excessive foreign debt), I’m thinking we may see a response in gold markets taking the price to $2,000/ounce, and that may happen within 24-36 months.

[stockstradr]

First, I consider Warren Buffet to be a personal hero and an inspiration to all. I have many of his books and have even read some of them.

I should note that I’m NOT a professional stock trader (as my nickname would indicate) although I do play one on here.

>> I have already dumped most of my long stocks and am in a holding pattern for D-day.

My response: If you’re expecting “D-Day” as I am, why not short the market?

I certainly haven’t held any LONG stock positions for over a year. If you are implying that you liquidated your long positions after the markets recently tanked 10% you won’t get any awards from us on your stock market savvy.

You write you’ve dumped most of your long positions and now in a holding pattern. Well, recently I’ve dumped most of my SHORT positions (after I made a good deal of money as the market recently tanked 10%), and I’m in a holding pattern while the markets continue this TEMPORARY minor recovery apparently driven by expected end of month FOMC 1/2 point rate drop. When this minor recovery seems to have run out of steam after estimated 5% (possible) or 10% (doubtful) upswing, I will take those short positions again in a Big Way. We are now entering a very nasty recession. Read Barron’s from this last weekend; see the comments in the roundtable discussion interviews. Those people are a order-of-magnitude smarter than me on the financial markets, and many are expecting the worst.

I continue to hold gold, and am increasing my exposure to gold. Some people talk about $1,000/ounce gold. Since the idiotic FOMC appears to have chosen the “print money” approach to this economic crisis (and to the larger problem of America’s excessive foreign debt), I’m thinking we may see a response in gold markets taking the price to $2,000/ounce, and that may happen within 24-36 months.

[stockstradr]

First, I consider Warren Buffet to be a personal hero and an inspiration to all. I have many of his books and have even read some of them.

I should note that I’m NOT a professional stock trader (as my nickname would indicate) although I do play one on here.

>> I have already dumped most of my long stocks and am in a holding pattern for D-day.

My response: If you’re expecting “D-Day” as I am, why not short the market?

I certainly haven’t held any LONG stock positions for over a year. If you are implying that you liquidated your long positions after the markets recently tanked 10% you won’t get any awards from us on your stock market savvy.

You write you’ve dumped most of your long positions and now in a holding pattern. Well, recently I’ve dumped most of my SHORT positions (after I made a good deal of money as the market recently tanked 10%), and I’m in a holding pattern while the markets continue this TEMPORARY minor recovery apparently driven by expected end of month FOMC 1/2 point rate drop. When this minor recovery seems to have run out of steam after estimated 5% (possible) or 10% (doubtful) upswing, I will take those short positions again in a Big Way. We are now entering a very nasty recession. Read Barron’s from this last weekend; see the comments in the roundtable discussion interviews. Those people are a order-of-magnitude smarter than me on the financial markets, and many are expecting the worst.

I continue to hold gold, and am increasing my exposure to gold. Some people talk about $1,000/ounce gold. Since the idiotic FOMC appears to have chosen the “print money” approach to this economic crisis (and to the larger problem of America’s excessive foreign debt), I’m thinking we may see a response in gold markets taking the price to $2,000/ounce, and that may happen within 24-36 months.

[stockstradr]

First, I consider Warren Buffet to be a personal hero and an inspiration to all. I have many of his books and have even read some of them.

I should note that I’m NOT a professional stock trader (as my nickname would indicate) although I do play one on here.

>> I have already dumped most of my long stocks and am in a holding pattern for D-day.

My response: If you’re expecting “D-Day” as I am, why not short the market?

I certainly haven’t held any LONG stock positions for over a year. If you are implying that you liquidated your long positions after the markets recently tanked 10% you won’t get any awards from us on your stock market savvy.

You write you’ve dumped most of your long positions and now in a holding pattern. Well, recently I’ve dumped most of my SHORT positions (after I made a good deal of money as the market recently tanked 10%), and I’m in a holding pattern while the markets continue this TEMPORARY minor recovery apparently driven by expected end of month FOMC 1/2 point rate drop. When this minor recovery seems to have run out of steam after estimated 5% (possible) or 10% (doubtful) upswing, I will take those short positions again in a Big Way. We are now entering a very nasty recession. Read Barron’s from this last weekend; see the comments in the roundtable discussion interviews. Those people are a order-of-magnitude smarter than me on the financial markets, and many are expecting the worst.

I continue to hold gold, and am increasing my exposure to gold. Some people talk about $1,000/ounce gold. Since the idiotic FOMC appears to have chosen the “print money” approach to this economic crisis (and to the larger problem of America’s excessive foreign debt), I’m thinking we may see a response in gold markets taking the price to $2,000/ounce, and that may happen within 24-36 months.

[stockstradr]

First, I consider Warren Buffet to be a personal hero and an inspiration to all. I have many of his books and have even read some of them.

I should note that I’m NOT a professional stock trader (as my nickname would indicate) although I do play one on here.

>> I have already dumped most of my long stocks and am in a holding pattern for D-day.

My response: If you’re expecting “D-Day” as I am, why not short the market?

I certainly haven’t held any LONG stock positions for over a year. If you are implying that you liquidated your long positions after the markets recently tanked 10% you won’t get any awards from us on your stock market savvy.

You write you’ve dumped most of your long positions and now in a holding pattern. Well, recently I’ve dumped most of my SHORT positions (after I made a good deal of money as the market recently tanked 10%), and I’m in a holding pattern while the markets continue this TEMPORARY minor recovery apparently driven by expected end of month FOMC 1/2 point rate drop. When this minor recovery seems to have run out of steam after estimated 5% (possible) or 10% (doubtful) upswing, I will take those short positions again in a Big Way. We are now entering a very nasty recession. Read Barron’s from this last weekend; see the comments in the roundtable discussion interviews. Those people are a order-of-magnitude smarter than me on the financial markets, and many are expecting the worst.

I continue to hold gold, and am increasing my exposure to gold. Some people talk about $1,000/ounce gold. Since the idiotic FOMC appears to have chosen the “print money” approach to this economic crisis (and to the larger problem of America’s excessive foreign debt), I’m thinking we may see a response in gold markets taking the price to $2,000/ounce, and that may happen within 24-36 months.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

stockstradr: Financial Times seems to concur with your assessment as regards gold prices, and the potential for a steady upward climb over the next two to three years.

As far as Buffett goes: He is a Ben Graham guy all the way, and would push for value investing. The only problem with value investing at present is finding a “clean” set of books to look at, company-wise. To a certain extent, a lot of the companies being traded are “cooking” their books as regards accounting practices and how their respective balance sheets are being valued, both from the Asset and Liability side.

The FED/FOMC are completely helpless here, and the market’s continued tepid reaction to the rate cuts, as well as the severely restrained liquidity (reaction to the uncertainty as to whom is holding bad assets) is going to plague us for a while yet.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

stockstradr: Financial Times seems to concur with your assessment as regards gold prices, and the potential for a steady upward climb over the next two to three years.

As far as Buffett goes: He is a Ben Graham guy all the way, and would push for value investing. The only problem with value investing at present is finding a “clean” set of books to look at, company-wise. To a certain extent, a lot of the companies being traded are “cooking” their books as regards accounting practices and how their respective balance sheets are being valued, both from the Asset and Liability side.

The FED/FOMC are completely helpless here, and the market’s continued tepid reaction to the rate cuts, as well as the severely restrained liquidity (reaction to the uncertainty as to whom is holding bad assets) is going to plague us for a while yet.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

stockstradr: Financial Times seems to concur with your assessment as regards gold prices, and the potential for a steady upward climb over the next two to three years.

As far as Buffett goes: He is a Ben Graham guy all the way, and would push for value investing. The only problem with value investing at present is finding a “clean” set of books to look at, company-wise. To a certain extent, a lot of the companies being traded are “cooking” their books as regards accounting practices and how their respective balance sheets are being valued, both from the Asset and Liability side.

The FED/FOMC are completely helpless here, and the market’s continued tepid reaction to the rate cuts, as well as the severely restrained liquidity (reaction to the uncertainty as to whom is holding bad assets) is going to plague us for a while yet.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

stockstradr: Financial Times seems to concur with your assessment as regards gold prices, and the potential for a steady upward climb over the next two to three years.

As far as Buffett goes: He is a Ben Graham guy all the way, and would push for value investing. The only problem with value investing at present is finding a “clean” set of books to look at, company-wise. To a certain extent, a lot of the companies being traded are “cooking” their books as regards accounting practices and how their respective balance sheets are being valued, both from the Asset and Liability side.

The FED/FOMC are completely helpless here, and the market’s continued tepid reaction to the rate cuts, as well as the severely restrained liquidity (reaction to the uncertainty as to whom is holding bad assets) is going to plague us for a while yet.

[Author]

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